External Publications

Articles in refereed Journals

Aumann, B.; Scheufele, Rolf: Is East Germany Catching up? A Time Series Perspective, in: Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 22 (2), 2010, pp. 177-192

Scheufele, Rolf: Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve, in: The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 21 (2), Special Issue: 50 Years of the Phillips Curve, 2010, pp. 145-164

Knedlik, Tobias; Scheufele, Rolf: Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods signaled the South African Crisis of June 2006?, in: South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 76 (3), 2008, pp. 367-383, Abstract

Internal Publications

Economy in Change

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Konjunktur aktuell: Die Erholung legt nur eine kurze Pause ein, in: Economy in Change 3/2010, pp. 144-157, PDF

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Konjunktur aktuell: Langsame Erholung ermöglicht Einstieg in die Konsolidierung, in: Economy in Change 1/2010, pp. 8-41, PDF

vanDeuverden, Kristina; Scheufele, Rolf: Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014, in: Economy in Change 1/2010, pp. 42-56, PDF, Abstract

Scheufele, Rolf; Ludwig, Udo: The Long Way to Convergence, in: Economy in Change 10/2009, pp. 400-407, PDF, Abstract

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Deutsche Konjunktur am Ende der Talfahrt – mit Ausnahme des Arbeitsmarktes, in: Economy in Change 9/2009, pp. 360-363, PDF

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Konjunkturelle Talfahrt hält vorerst an, in: Economy in Change 4/2009, pp. 158-161, PDF

Scheufele, Rolf: Economic Stimulus Packages and their Effects – A Simulation with the IWH Macroeconometric Model, in: Economy in Change 1/2009, pp. 4-7, PDF, Abstract

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany, in: Economy in Change 1/2009, pp. 11-43, PDF, Abstract

vanDeuverden, Kristina; Scheufele, Rolf: Development of Economy and Public Budgets in the Medium Term, in: Economy in Change 1/2009, pp. 44-58, PDF, Abstract

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Business Cycle Forecast, Summer 2008: Price Hikes and Financial Crisis Cloud Growth Prospects, in: Economy in Change 7/2008, pp. 263-288, PDF, Abstract

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Business cycle forecast 2008: German upswing takes a break, in: Economy in Change 1/2008, pp. 8-34, PDF, Abstract

Scheufele, Rolf: Aktuelle Trends: Aktuelle Erweiterung des Bestands an Wohnbauten in Deutschland nicht von Dauer, in: Economy in Change 10/2007, pp. 363-363, PDF

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Business Cycle Update Summer 2007: German Upswing Still Healthy, in: Economy in Change 8/2007, pp. 288-297, PDF, Abstract

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Konjunktur aktuell: Nach Wachstumsdelle Anfang 2007 deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung, in: Economy in Change 3/2007, pp. 74-82, PDF

Arbeitskreis Konjunktur: Deutsche Wirtschaft 2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf – das andere Gesicht, in: Economy in Change 1/2007, pp. 7-28, PDF

Nomos-Press Series

Dufour, Jean-Marie; Scheufele, Rolf: The Phillips Curve as a Macroeconometric Relation: Evolution and Recent Econometric Developments, Nomos-Press Series 27/2008, pp. 27-48, PDF

Discussion Papers

Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf: Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession, Discussion Papers 10/2010, pp. 1-55, PDF

Giesen, Sebastian; Holtemöller, Oliver; Scharff, Juliane; Scheufele, Rolf: A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model, Discussion Papers 6/2010, pp. 1-31, PDF

Aumann, Bernd; Scheufele, Rolf: Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective, Discussion Papers 14/2009, pp. 1-24, PDF, Abstract

Scheufele, Rolf: Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve, Discussion Papers 10/2008, pp. 1-39, PDF, Abstract

Scheufele, Rolf: Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung, Discussion Papers 9/2008, pp. 1-27, PDF, Abstract

Knedlik, Tobias; Scheufele, Rolf: Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006? , Discussion Papers 17/2007, pp. 1-29, PDF, Abstract