25 Years IWH

Dr Axel Lindner

Dr Axel Lindner
Current Position

since 1/13

Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasts

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 1/10

Deputy Head of the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 1/01

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests

  • monetary economics
  • European macroeconomics

Axel Lindner is Senior Economist at the IWH. He works on communication policies of central banks and theories of financial crises. He is the Deputy Head of the Department of Macroeconomics and coordinates the research group "Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasts". In addition, as IWH team leader for the European Forecasting Network (EFN), he regularly establishes forecasts of the international economy, and in particular of the economy of the Euro area. As ombudsperson, Axel Lindner is responsible for ensuring good scientific practice at IWH.

Axel Lindner earned a diploma and doctoral degree in Economics from the University of Munich. He was visiting professor at Concordia University (Montreal, Canada) and visiting scholar at Queen’s University (Kingston, Canada). From 1996 till 2001 he was teaching at Goethe University Frankfurt.

Your contact

Dr Axel Lindner
Dr Axel Lindner
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-703

Publications

Recent Publications

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Wirtschaftspolitische Reformen in Frankreich: Ein Überblick

Andrej Drygalla Axel Lindner Heiner Mikosch Stefan Neuwirth

in: Ökonomenstimme, 2018

Abstract

In Frankreich hat die Regierung des im Jahr 2017 gewählten Präsidenten Emmanuel Macron tiefgreifende wirtschaftspolitische Reformen in Angriff genommen. Die Regierungspartei verfügt über eine komfortable parlamentarische Mehrheit, und auch das konjunkturelle Umfeld ist günstig. Dieser Beitrag stellt die Strukturprobleme der französischen Wirtschaft dar und erläutert das Reformprogramm Macrons.

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The Economic Development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990

Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2018

Abstract

This article describes the economic development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990 in the context of the East German transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. In the early 1990s the economy of Saxony-Anhalt caught up quickly with West Germany, mainly because the capital stock was modernized and expanded. Convergence, however, has almost come to a halt for some time now and gross domestic product per employed person is still about 20% below the West German level. The challenge for economic policy is to further the catching-up process by fostering research and innovation and improving the skills of the workforce.

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For How Long Do IMF Forecasts of World Economic Growth Stay Up-to-date?

Katja Heinisch Axel Lindner

in: Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the durability of IMF forecasts, looking at how much time has to pass so that IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time data set for GDP and for indicators, we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts as soon as the publication of the IMF’s Outlook is only a few months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the current year.

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Refereed Publications

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For How Long Do IMF Forecasts of World Economic Growth Stay Up-to-date?

Katja Heinisch Axel Lindner

in: Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the durability of IMF forecasts, looking at how much time has to pass so that IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time data set for GDP and for indicators, we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts as soon as the publication of the IMF’s Outlook is only a few months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the current year.

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On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU

Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Andreas Schmalzbauer Götz Zeddies

in: Intereconomics, No. 4, 2016

Abstract

The current situation regarding the migration of refugees can only be handled efficiently through closer international cooperation in the field of asylum policy. From an economic point of view, it would be reasonable to distribute incoming refugees among all EU countries according to a distribution key that reflects differences in the costs of integration in the individual countries. An efficient distribution would even out the marginal costs of integrating refugees. In order to reach a political agreement, the key for distributing refugees should be complemented by compensation payments that distribute the costs of integration among countries. The key for distributing refugees presented by the EU Commission takes account of appropriate factors in principle, but it is unclear in terms of detail. The compensation payments for countries that should take relatively high numbers of refugees for cost efficiency reasons should be financed by reallocating resources within the EU budget.

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Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

Makram El-Shagi Axel Lindner Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Review of International Economics, No. 1, 2016

Abstract

The European debt crisis has revealed severe imbalances within the Euro area, sparking a debate about the magnitude of those imbalances, in particular concerning real effective exchange rate misalignments. We use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member state in order to identify the degree of these misalignments. We find that crisis countries are best described as a combination of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual real effective exchange rate with those of the counterfactuals gives evidence of misalignments before the outbreak of the crisis: all peripheral countries appear strongly and significantly overvalued.

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Working Papers

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The Economic Development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990

Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2018

Abstract

This article describes the economic development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990 in the context of the East German transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. In the early 1990s the economy of Saxony-Anhalt caught up quickly with West Germany, mainly because the capital stock was modernized and expanded. Convergence, however, has almost come to a halt for some time now and gross domestic product per employed person is still about 20% below the West German level. The challenge for economic policy is to further the catching-up process by fostering research and innovation and improving the skills of the workforce.

read publication

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Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

Makram El-Shagi Axel Lindner Gregor von Schweinitz

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2014
published in: Review of International Economics

Abstract

Were real effective exchange rates (REER) of Euro area member countries drastically misaligned at the outbreak of the global financial crisis? The answer is difficult to determine because economic theory gives no simple guideline for determining the equilibrium values of real exchange rates, and the determinants of those values might have been distorted as well. To overcome these limitations, we use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member as a linear combination of a large set of non-Euro area countries. We find that Euro area crisis countries are best described by a mixture of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual REER with those of the counterfactuals gives sensible estimates of the misalignments at the start of the crisis: All peripheral countries were strongly overvalued, while high undervaluation is only observed for Finland.

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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel Sebastian Giesen Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2014

Abstract

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

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