25 Years IWH

Professor Dr Tobias Knedlik

Professor Dr Tobias Knedlik
Current Position

since 4/14

Research Professor

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 2014

Professor for International Economics

Fulda University of Applied Sciences

Research Interests

  • European and international economic policy: in particular financial crises
  • international economics, exchange rate policy, international organizations
  • economic growth an economic development

Tobias Knedlik is a Professor for International Economics at Fulda University of Applied Sciences, Germany. He studied economics at the University of Würzburg, Germany, and at the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, South Africa.

He worked as Research Assistant at the Institute for World Economics and International Management at the University of Bremen (2002–2005) and received a doctoral degree in Economics in 2005. From 2005 to 2014, he worked as an economist at the Halle Institute for Economic Research. He served as visiting professor at the University of Erfurt, Germany; the University of the Free State, South Africa; and Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.

On this website, publications resulting from cooperation with the IWH are listed. A complete list of publications is available on the author's website.

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Publications

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The Impact of Preferences on Early Warning Systems - The Case of the European Commission's Scoreboard

Tobias Knedlik

in: European Journal of Political Economy , 2014

Abstract

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system – missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. These preferences might differ with the institutional setting. Such an analysis is done for the first time in this article for early warning systems in general by using a standard signals approach, including a preference-based optimisation approach, to set thresholds. It is shown that, in general, the thresholds of the Commission’s Scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals), as compared to a neutral stand. Based on political economy considerations the result could have been expected.

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Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach

Makram El-Shagi Tobias Knedlik Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Journal of International Money and Finance , No. 35, 2013

Abstract

The signals approach as an early-warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it cannot distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful results; (2) that composite indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach; and (3) that indicators which are found to be significant in-sample usually perform similarly well out-of-sample.

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Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe

Tobias Knedlik Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Journal of Common Market Studies , No. 5, 2012

Abstract

European authorities and scholars published proposals on which indicators of macroeconomic imbalances might be used to uncover risks for the sustainability of public debt in the European Union. We test the ability of four proposed sets of indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of composite indicators. We find that a broad composite indicator has the highest predictive power. This fact still holds true if equal weights are used for the construction of the composite indicator in order to reflect the uncertainty about the origin of future crises.

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Working Papers

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The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

Martina Kämpfe Tobias Knedlik

in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 16, 2017

Abstract

The experience of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) during the global financial crisis and in the resulting European debt crises has been largely different from that of other European countries. This paper looks at the specifics of the CEEC in recent history and focuses in particular on the appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure for this group of countries. In doing so, the macroeconomic situation in the CEEC is highlighted and macroeconomic problems faced by these countries are extracted. The findings are compared to the results of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure of the European Commission. It is shown that while the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure correctly identifies some of the problems, it understates or overstates other problems. This is due to the specific construction of the broadened surveillance procedure, which largely disregarded the specifics of catching-up economies.

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The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System

Tobias Knedlik

in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 10, 2012

Abstract

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system (EWS). That allows for analyzing the preferences of the involved politicians with regard to the two potential errors of an EWS – missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. This is done for the first time for EWS in general by using a standard signals approach including a preference-based optimization approach to set thresholds. It is shown that in general, the thresholds of the scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals) as compared to a neutral stand.

read publication

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Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach

Makram El-Shagi Tobias Knedlik Gregor von Schweinitz

in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 3, 2012

Abstract

The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it does not distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful and statistically significant results and (2) that composite indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach, even where most individual indicators are not statistically significant on their own.

read publication
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