25 Years IWH

cover_journal-of-business-_-economic-statistics.png

Too Connected to Fail? Inferring Network Ties from Price Co-movements

We use extreme value theory methods to infer conventionally unobservable connections between financial institutions from joint extreme movements in credit default swap spreads and equity returns. Estimated pairwise co-crash probabilities identify significant connections among up to 186 financial institutions prior to the crisis of 2007/2008. Financial institutions that were very central prior to the crisis were more likely to be bailed out during the crisis or receive the status of systemically important institutions. This result remains intact also after controlling for indicators of too-big-to-fail concerns, systemic, systematic, and idiosyncratic risks. Both CDS-based and Equity-based connections are significant predictors of bailouts.

Authors Jakob Bosma Michael Koetter Michael Wedow

Whom to contact

For Researchers

For Journalists

Stefanie Müller
Stefanie Müller
Press Officer

If you have any further questions please contact me.

+49 345 7753-720 Request per E-Mail
Mitglied der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft LogoTotal-Equality-LogoWeltoffen Logo