Monetary Aggregates, Asset Prices and Real Outcomes
This research group belongs to the IWH Research Cluster Macroeconomic Dynamics and Stability. Paying close attention to money, credit, and asset prices shall improve the IWH's macroeconomic policy work, especially in terms of forecasting macroeconomic developments and risks, but also in terms of assessing the stance of monetary policy. To this end, it is necessary to understand the relationship between monetary and financial developments, on the one hand, and macroeconomic dynamics and stability, on the other hand. Money and credit are important determinants of the macroeconomic performance of a market economy. Research in this group contributes to the literature on quantitative macroeconomic models to be applied for forecasting and policy analysis that incorporate monetary and financial aspects.
Research ClusterMacroeconomic Dynamics and Stability
The Synchronization of Wage Dynamics across EMU Members: A Test of the Endogeneity Hypothesis
in: Empirica , No. 3, 2012
We test the hypothesis of an endogenous currency area for the labor market of the Euro area: has the introduction of a common currency caused wage dynamics to become more synchronized and to be able to cushion for asymmetric shocks? Trade intensity, sector specialization and financial integration are tested for being the driving forces for the endogenous synchronization of wage dynamics. We use regression techniques with instrument variables, and find evidence of persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation, despite a single currency and monetary policy. We explain the result with more specialization following financial integration, and with still existing differences in wage formation and labor market institutions. We conclude that the euro zone is not endogenous with respect to wage formation. Rather, there are incentives for beggar-thy-neighbor policies in the Euro area.
Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzkrise
in: ORDO , 2010
Im vorliegenden Papier wird die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtungen zwischen Aktiengesellschaften (bzw. Kapitalgesellschaften im Allgemeinen) für die gegenwärtige Finanzmarktkrise herausgearbeitet. Durch den wechselseitigen Besitz von Firmen untereinander ist eine Situation entstanden, in denen bestellte Manager sich lediglich kontrollieren. Durch entstehende Abhängigkeiten und die innerhalb der verhältnismäßig kleinen Gruppe von Topmanagern mögliche implizite Koordination konnten Vorstände über die Entlohnungs- und damit auch über die Anreizsysteme, denen sie ausgesetzt sind, wesentlich mitentscheiden. Dies hat, wie gezeigt wird, erheblich zur Entstehung von Anreizsystemen beigetragen, die sich im Kern an kurzfristigen Erfolgen orientieren. Da insbesondere in der Finanzintermediation kurz- und langfristige Gewinnoptimierung durch die starke Korrelation von Risiko und Gewinnmöglichkeiten einem starken Trade- off unterliegen, haben diese Anreizsysteme wiederum eine erhebliche Rolle in der verfehlten Risikopolitik der Banken gespielt, die ein wesentliche Ursache der Krise war.
Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries
in: Economics Bulletin , No. 1, 2014
While there has been much discussion of the role of liquidity in the recent financial crises, there has been little discussion of the use of macroeconomic aggregation techniques to measure total liquidity available to the market. In this paper, we provide an approximation of the liquidity development in six Euro area countries from 2003 to 2013. We show that properly measured monetary aggregates contain significant information about liquidity risk.
Money and Inflation: Consequences of the Recent Monetary Policy
in: Journal of Policy Modeling , No. 4, 2013
We use a multivariate state space framework to analyze the short run impact of money on prices in the United States. The key contribution of this approach is that it allows to identify the impact of money growth on inflation without having to model money demand explicitly. Using our results, that provide evidence for a substantial impact of money on prices in the US, we analyze the consequences of the Fed's response to the financial crisis. Our results indicate a raise of US inflation above 5% for more than a decade. Alternative exit strategies that we simulate cannot fully compensate for the monetary pressure without risking serious repercussions on the real economy. Further simulations of a double dip in the United States indicate that a repetition of the unusually expansive monetary policy – in addition to increased inflation – might cause growth losses exceeding the contemporary easing of the crisis.
Note on the Hidden Risk of Inflation
in: Journal of Economic Policy Reform , No. 1, 2014
The continued expansionary policy of the Federal Reserve gives rise to speculation whether the Fed will be able to maintain price stability in the coming decades. Most of the scientific work relating money to prices relies on broad monetary aggregates (i.e. M2 for the United States). In our paper, we argue that this view falls short. The historically unique monetary expansion has not yet fully reached M2. Using a cointegration approach, we aim to show the hidden risks for the future development of M2 and correspondingly prices. In a simulation analysis we show that even if the multiplier remains substantially below its pre-crisis level, M2 will exceed its current growth path with a probability of 95%.
Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?
in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 8, 2014
The economic and financial crisis that emerged in 2008 also initiated an intense discussion on macroeconomic research and the role of economists in society. The debate focuses on three main issues. Firstly, it is argued that economists failed to predict the crisis and to design early warning systems. Secondly, it is claimed that economists use models of the macroeconomy which fail to integrate financial markets and which are inadequate to model large economic crises. Thirdly, the issue has been raised that economists invoke unrealistic assumptions concerning human behaviour by assuming that all agents are self-centred, rationally optimizing individuals. In this paper, we focus on the first two issues. Overall, our thrust is that the above statements are a caricature of modern economic theory and empirics. A rich field of research developed already before the crisis and picked up shortcomings of previous models.
U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules
in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 15, 2017
We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime interactions in a model, where regimes are determined by latent autoregressive policy factors with endogenous feedback. Policy regimes interact strongly: Shocks that switch one policy from active to passive tend to induce the other policy to switch from passive to active, consistently with existence of a unique equilibrium, though both policies are active and government debt grows rapidly in some periods. We observe relatively strong interactions between monetary and fiscal policy regimes after the recent financial crisis. Finally, latent policy regime factors exhibit patterns of correlation with macroeconomic time series, suggesting that policy regime change is endogenous.
Efficiency in the UK Commercial Property Market: A Long-run Perspective
in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 15, 2012
Informationally efficient prices are a necessary requirement for optimal resource allocation in the real estate market. Prices are informationally efficient if they reflect buildings’ benefit to marginal buyers, thereby taking account of all available information on future market development. Prices that do not reflect available information may lead to over- or undersupply if developers react to these inefficient prices. In this study, we examine the efficiency of the UK commercial property market and the interaction between prices, construction costs, and new supply. We collated a unique data set covering the years 1920 onwards, which we employ in our study. First, we assess if real estate prices were in accordance with present values, thereby testing for informational efficiency. By comparing prices and estimated present values, we can measure informational inefficiency. Second, we assess if developers reacted correctly to price signals. Development (or the lack thereof) should be triggered by deviations between present values and cost; if prices do not reflect present values, then they should have no impact on development decisions.
Monetary Policy in an Oil-dependent Economy in the Presence of Multiple Shocks
in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 14, 2017
Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this paper estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation, output and the exchange rate. Simulations of the model for the estimated actual strategy and five alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of an inflation targeting strategy. Foreign exchange intervention-based policy strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil, on the other hand, prove inferior to the policy in place.
Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters
in: IWH Discussion Papers , No. 6, 2012
While the long-run relation between money and inflation as predicted by the quantity theory is well established, empirical studies of the short-run adjustment process have been inconclusive at best. The literature regarding the validity of the quantity theory within a given economy is mixed. Previous research has found support for quantity theory within a given economy by combining the P-Star, the structural VAR and the monetary aggregation literature. However, these models lack precise modelling of the short-run dynamics by ignoring interest rates as the main policy instrument. Contrarily, most New Keynesian approaches, while excellently modeling the short-run dynamics transmitted through interest rates, ignore the role of money and thus the potential mid-and long-run effects of monetary policy. We propose a parsimonious and fairly unrestrictive econometric model that allows a detailed look into the dynamics of a monetary policy shock by accounting for changes in economic equilibria, such as potential output and money demand, in a framework that allows for both monetarist and New Keynesian transmission mechanisms, while also considering the Barnett critique. While we confirm most New Keynesian findings concerning the short-run dynamics, we also find strong evidence for a substantial role of the quantity of money for price movements.