25 Jahre IWH

Reports des European Forecasting Network (EFN)

Das European Forecasting Network (EFN) ist eine Gruppe von Konjunkturexperten von verschiedenen europäischen Forschungseinrichtungen (darunter EUI Florenz, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, Universitat de Barcelona, IWH).

Seit 2001 veröffentlicht das EFN regelmäßig (seit 2005 vierteljährlich) Konjunkturprognosen für den Euroraum.

EFN Report Summer 2013: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

European Forecasting Network

2013

Abstract

The structural problems in emerging economies, the still mild recovery in the USA and the on-going crisis in the euro area will probably keep world economic growth subdued at least for the rest of 2013. Current and expected future monetary policy in Japan and, in particular, in the USA have heightened volatility in global bond and stock markets, including those of the euro area, though much less than during the crisis episodes. The process of consolidation of public finance in many euro area countries has become slightly less ambitious but it will continue to weigh on the economy in 2013, though less than in 2012. For this reason and for the lower expected global growth, we have revised downward our GDP forecasts for 2013 from previous reports. Now, we expect GDP to be -0.5 per cent lower in 2013 than in 2012, with considerable risks of an even stronger contraction. In 2014, when fiscal policy might be close to neutral, and if reforms continue to be, by and large, successfully implemented, the euro area economy should start to close its wide output gap with an expected GDP growth of about 1.2%, again subject to downwards risks. Moreover, this will not be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which actually could further increase to about 12.5%. The interest rates cut in May 2013 shows the will of the ECB to keep monetary policy expansive, but credit conditions and lending rates remain quite heterogeneous across the member countries. Despite the interest rate cut, euro area inflation is still very likely to remain significantly below the ECB target throughout our forecasting period. Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.5%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%.

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EFN Report Spring 2013: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

European Forecasting Network

2013

Abstract

In 2013, the expansion of the world economy will be a bit stronger than in 2012. Growth in Asia should be more dynamic than in 2012, and the US economy appears to robustly withstand the restrictive and unstable US fiscal policy, thanks to a very expansionary monetary policy. In spring 2013, the euro crisis is clearly less acute than in 2012. Overall, we forecast euro area GDP to be -0.3 percent lower in 2013 than in 2012, a downward revision from the positive growth of 0.2% we expected in our last report. The situation should improve in 2014, with an expected GDP growth of about 1.3%. However, this will not be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which actually could further increase to about 12.6%. Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.6%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%. The likelihood for the ECB to cut interest rates has moderately increased.

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EFN Report Winter 2012/13: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

European Forecasting Network

2013

Abstract

In 2012, economic growth was low in most regions of the world. In the euro area, production has been shrinking since the end of 2011, and the British economy barely stagnated in 2012. In the US, anxieties about the fiscal course in 2013 have dampened the recovery at the end of the year. The Japanese economy appears to be falling back into recession, as exports have been falling since summer due to weak demand from Europe and China. In important emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil, expansion slowed already in 2011. Growth of world trade is, with about 2 ½ % in 2012, particularly slow. Recent data about container turnovers do not indicate a recovery of trade at the end of the year.

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EFN Report Autumn 2012: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013

European Forecasting Network

2012

Abstract

In the autumn of 2012, economic growth in the world is rather anemic; production in most regions has been weak for some time: the recovery in the US began to slow down early this year; production has been shrinking in the euro area and in Britain since the autumn 2011; and the temporary rebound of production in Japan appears to have ended this summer. Already in 2011, economic expansion in emerging markets, and in China in particular, began slowing down markedly. World trade has all but stagnated in the first half of 2012.

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EFN Report Summer 2012: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013

European Forecasting Network

2012

Abstract

In 2012 and 2013 we expect world production to grow modestly, since external conditions have deteriorated as growth dynamics appear to be declining in important emerging economies. However, the euro area crisis remains the central risk factor for the world economy. Euro area GDP is expected to decline 0.2 percent in 2012 when compared to 2011; for 2013 we expect fiscal policy to be a bit less restrictive and private investment to increase, with GDP expanding by 0.9%. The unemployment rate will remain well above 11%.

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