25 Jahre IWH

Reports des European Forecasting Network (EFN)

Das European Forecasting Network (EFN) ist eine Gruppe von Konjunkturexperten von verschiedenen europäischen Forschungseinrichtungen (darunter EUI Florenz, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, Universitat de Barcelona, IWH).

Seit 2001 veröffentlicht das EFN regelmäßig (seit 2005 vierteljährlich) Konjunkturprognosen für den Euroraum.

EFN Report Spring 2012: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013

European Forecasting Network

2012

Abstract

In the first months of 2012 there were some mild signs of improvement in the world economy, to a large degree due to political measures taken in the euro area at the end of 2011. In particular, the ECB secured financing of banks by offering liquidity for as longs as three years and by easing standards for collateral. However, the southern countries of the euro area will stay in recession for most of the year 2012: planned fiscal consolidation in Spain and Italy has a magnitude of about 3% relative to GDP, in Portugal and Greece the restriction is even larger. The structural reforms need time to take beneficial effects, and the real sector is largely out of reach of the expansive monetary policy.

Publikation lesen

EFN Report Winter 2011/12: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013

European Forecasting Network

2011

Abstract

At the end of 2011, prospects for the world are clouded. The main cause for concern is that the euro area crisis of confidence has not reached its peak yet. It is doubtful whether Italian and Spanish debt service would be sustainable if yields stay at these levels for long. Even more critical are the financing conditions for European banks whose standing crucially depends on the valuation of the sovereign bonds they own. This uncertainty will continue inducing firms and households to postpone decisions on spending and investment, and fiscal policy will dampen demand further. Besides, financial conditions are also bound to deteriorate in most member countries. Moreover, weak demand from advanced economies is dampening the expansion in exportoriented emerging markets countries (in East-Asia, but also in Latin America). As a consequence, both our forecasts for the euro area exports and industrial production have been revised downwards.

Publikation lesen

EFN Report Autumn 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012

European Forecasting Network

2011

Abstract

High growth dynamics and demand coming from emerging markets will slow only modestly in the rest of 2011 and in 2012, but the intensification of the financial turmoil and the doubts about the ability of the European Union to contain the consequences of possible defaults will hamper world economic growth considerably in our forecasting horizon. For the euro area, we expect GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, not enough to bring the unemployment rate back below 10% and substantially less for 2012 than in our Summer report. Many private households and firms will adopt a wait-and-see attitude while, to restore confidence in the euro area sovereign debt, fiscal policy will become even more restrictive.

Publikation lesen

EFN Report Summer 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012

European Forecasting Network

2011

Abstract

The worldwide upswing has lost momentum, but it will overcome the present slowdown. Monetary policy is overall still accommodative, and growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging market countries. For the euro area, we expect GDP to grow by around 1.9% in 2011 and 1.7% in 2012, not enough to bring the unemployment rate back significantly below 10%. In fact, in a large core region of the euro area the upswing is well under way; this region includes, apart from Germany and some smaller economies, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. However, the crisis of confidence in the ability of EU institutions to master the fiscal crises is a major threat to the continuation of the upswing.

Publikation lesen

EFN Report Spring 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012

European Forecasting Network

2011

Abstract

Our baseline scenario for the world economy in 2011 and 2012 is a continuation of the upswing, because growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging economies, monetary policy will in general continue to be expansive, and the factors that dampen the recovery in many advanced economies are slowly declining. There are two main downward risks for this prospect: first, low interest rates and high growth might drive commodity prices to disruptive levels. Second, waning confidence in financial markets might enhance volatility and enforce further extensivemeasures of consolidation in advanced economies.

Publikation lesen
Mitglied der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft LogoTotal-Equality-LogoWeltoffen Logo