25 Jahre IWH

Monetäre Aggregate, Vermögenspreise und realwirtschaftliche Effekte

Die Forschungsgruppe gehört zum IWH-Forschungscluster Gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik und Stabilität. Diese Gruppe erforscht – auch vor dem Hintergrund der jüngsten Krisen – den Zusammenhang zwischen monetären Aggregaten, Vermögenspreisen und realwirtschaftlichen Schwankungen. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Entwicklung allgemeiner Gleichgewichtsmodelle, die diese Zusammenhänge explizit abbilden.

Forschungscluster
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik und Stabilität

Ihr Kontakt

Juniorprofessorin Boreum Kwak, Ph.D.
Juniorprofessorin Boreum Kwak, Ph.D.
Mitglied - Abteilung Makroökonomik
Nachricht senden +49 345 7753-851

Referierte Publikationen

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Global Food Prices and Monetary Policy in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of India

Oliver Holtemöller Sushanta Mallick

in: Journal of Asian Economics , 2016

Abstract

This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. The results suggest that a big part of the variation in inflation in India is due to cost-push shocks and, mainly during the years 2008 and 2010, also to global food price shocks, after having controlled for exogenous rainfall shocks. We conclude that the inflationary supply shocks (cost-push, oil price, domestic food price and global food price shocks) are important contributors to inflation in India. Since the monetary authority responds to these supply shocks with a higher interest rate which tends to slow growth, this raises concerns about how such output losses can be prevented by reducing exposure to commodity price shocks. 

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Monetary-fiscal Policy Interaction and Fiscal Inflation: A Tale of Three Countries

Martin Kliem Alexander Kriwoluzky Samad Sarferaz

in: European Economic Review , 2016

Abstract

We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary–fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S., and Italy with evidence obtained from simple regression models and a time-varying VAR. We find that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central bank and responsible fiscal policy and more pronounced in times of non-responsible fiscal policy and accommodative monetary authorities. In a second step, we use an estimated DSGE model to interpret the low-frequency measure structurally and to illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest that switches in the monetary–fiscal policy interaction and accompanying variations in the propagation of structural shocks can well account for changes in the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation.

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Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story

Makram El-Shagi Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Journal of Applied Economics , Nr. 2, 2016

Abstract

Due to the recent financial crisis, the interest in econometric models that allow to incorporate binary variables (such as the occurrence of a crisis) experienced a huge surge. This paper evaluates the performance of the Qual VAR, originally proposed by Dueker (2005). The Qual VAR is a VAR model including a latent variable that governs the behavior of an observable binary variable. While we find that the Qual VAR performs reasonable well in forecasting (outperforming a probit benchmark), there are substantial identification problems even in a simple VAR specification. Typically, identification in economic applications is far more difficult than in our simple benchmark. Therefore, when the economic interpretation of the dynamic behavior of the latent variable and the chain of causality matter, use of the Qual VAR is inadvisable.

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On the Low-frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation

Martin Kliem Alexander Kriwoluzky Samad Sarferaz

in: Journal of Applied Econometrics , Nr. 3, 2016

Abstract

We estimate the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time-varying vector autoregression model for US data from 1900 to 2011. We find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high public deficits, but from the mid 1960s up to 1980. Employing a structural decomposition of the low-frequency relationship and further narrative evidence, we interpret our results such that the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is strongly related to the conduct of monetary policy and its interaction with fiscal policy after World War II.

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Nested Models and Model Uncertainty

Alexander Kriwoluzky Christian A. Stoltenberg

in: Scandinavian Journal of Economics , Nr. 2, 2016

Abstract

Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space, ignoring the special status of submodels (e.g., those resulting from zero restrictions). Following Sims (2008, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32, 2460–2475), we treat nested submodels as probability models, and we formalize a procedure that ensures that submodels are not discarded too easily and do matter for optimal policy. For the United States, we find that optimal policy based on our procedure leads to substantial welfare gains compared to the standard procedure.

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Arbeitspapiere

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U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules

Yoosoon Chang Boreum Kwak

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 15, 2017

Abstract

We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime interactions in a model, where regimes are determined by latent autoregressive policy factors with endogenous feedback. Policy regimes interact strongly: Shocks that switch one policy from active to passive tend to induce the other policy to switch from passive to active, consistently with existence of a unique equilibrium, though both policies are active and government debt grows rapidly in some periods. We observe relatively strong interactions between monetary and fiscal policy regimes after the recent financial crisis. Finally, latent policy regime factors exhibit patterns of correlation with macroeconomic time series, suggesting that policy regime change is endogenous.

Publikation lesen

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Monetary Policy in an Oil-dependent Economy in the Presence of Multiple Shocks

Andrej Drygalla

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 14, 2017

Abstract

Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this paper estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation, output and the exchange rate. Simulations of the model for the estimated actual strategy and five alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of an inflation targeting strategy. Foreign exchange intervention-based policy strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil, on the other hand, prove inferior to the policy in place.

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Same, but Different: Testing Monetary Policy Shock Measures

Alexander Kriwoluzky Stephanie Ettmeier

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 9, 2017

Abstract

In this study, we test whether three popular measures for monetary policy, that is, Romer and Romer (2004), Barakchian and Crowe (2013), and Gertler and Karadi (2015), constitute suitable proxy variables for monetary policy shocks. To this end, we employ different test statistics used in the literature to detect weak proxy variables. We find that the measure derived by Gertler and Karadi (2015) is the most suitable in this regard.

Publikation lesen

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Monetary-fiscal Policy Interaction and Fiscal Inflation: A Tale of Three Countries

Martin Kliem Alexander Kriwoluzky Samad Sarferaz

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 17, 2015

Abstract

We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary-fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S. and Italy with evidence obtained from simple regression models and a time-varying VAR. We find that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central bank and responsible fiscal policy and more pronounced in times of high fiscal budget deficits and accommodative monetary authorities. In a second step, we use an estimated DSGE model to interpret the low-frequency measure structurally and to illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest that switches in the monetary-fiscal policy interaction and accompanying variations in the propagation of structural shocks can well account for changes in the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation.

Publikation lesen

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Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy

Oliver Holtemöller Sushanta Mallick

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 15, 2015

Abstract

This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period from 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. The results suggest that big part of the variation in inflation in India is due to cost-push shocks and, mainly during the years 2008 and 2010, also to global food price shocks, after having controlled for exogenous rainfall shocks. We conclude that the inflationary supply shocks (cost-push, oil price, domestic food price and global food price shocks) are important contributors to inflation in India. Since the monetary authority responds to these supply shocks with a higher interest rate which tends to slow growth, this raises concerns about how such output losses can be prevented by reducing exposure to commodity price shocks and thereby achieve higher growth.

Publikation lesen
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