25 Jahre IWH

Regional, Individual and Political Determinants of FOMC Members' Key Macroeconomic Forecasts

We study Federal Open Market Committee members' individual forecasts of inflation and unemployment in the period 1992–2004. Our results imply that Governors and Bank presidents forecast differently, with Governors submitting lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts than bank presidents. For Bank presidents we find a regional bias, with higher district unemployment rates being associated with lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts. Bank presidents' regional bias is more pronounced during the year prior to their elections or for nonvoting bank presidents. Career backgrounds or political affiliations also affect individual forecast behavior.

Autoren Stefan Eichler T. Lähner

Ansprechpartner

Für Wissenschaftler/innen

Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler
Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler
Forschungsgruppenleiter

Für Rückfragen stehe ich Ihnen gerne zur Verfügung.

Anfrage per E-Mail

Für Journalistinnen/en

Stefanie Müller
Stefanie Müller
Pressereferentin

Für Rückfragen stehe ich Ihnen gerne zur Verfügung.

+49 345 7753-720 Anfrage per E-Mail
Mitglied der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft LogoTotal-Equality-LogoWeltoffen Logo