Dr. Axel Lindner

Dr. Axel Lindner
Aktuelle Position

seit 1/13

Leiter der Forschungsgruppe Makroökonomische Analysen und Prognosen

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 1/10

Stellvertretender Leiter der Abteilung Makroökonomik

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 1/01

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter der Abteilung Makroökonomik

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

Forschungsschwerpunkte

  • Geld- und Finanzmärkte
  • Konjunktur und Wachstum im Euroraum

Seit 2001 ist Axel Lindner Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Makroökonomik am IWH, seit 2005 als Senior Economist und seit 2010 als stellvertretender Abteilungsleiter. Des Weiteren leitet er die Forschungsgruppe "Makroökonomische Analysen und Prognosen". Axel Lindner ist am IWH als Ombudsperson für die Einhaltung der Regeln guter wissenschaftlicher Praxis verantwortlich.

Er hat Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Universität München studiert und dort im Jahr 1995 über Ausbildungsinvestitionen in einfachen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modellen promoviert. Nach Aufenthalten als visiting professor an der Concordia University in Montreal und als visiting scholar an der Queen‘s University in Kingston (Kanada) arbeitete er von 1996 bis 2001 am Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftstheorie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main.

Ihr Kontakt

Dr. Axel Lindner
Dr. Axel Lindner
Mitglied - Abteilung Makroökonomik
Nachricht senden +49 345 7753-703

Publikationen

Central and Eastern European Countries in the Global Financial Crisis: A Typical Twin Crisis?

Diemo Dietrich Tobias Knedlik Axel Lindner

in: Post-Communist Economies , Nr. 4, 2011

Abstract

This paper shows that during the Great Recession, banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help explaining the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises, and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. It is shown that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understand differing effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters if international activities are organized by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic States differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.

Publikation lesen

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

Makram El-Shagi Axel Lindner Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Review of International Economics , Nr. 1, 2016

Abstract

The European debt crisis has revealed severe imbalances within the Euro area, sparking a debate about the magnitude of those imbalances, in particular concerning real effective exchange rate misalignments. We use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member state in order to identify the degree of these misalignments. We find that crisis countries are best described as a combination of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual real effective exchange rate with those of the counterfactuals gives evidence of misalignments before the outbreak of the crisis: all peripheral countries appear strongly and significantly overvalued.

Publikation lesen

Macroeconomic Adjustment: The Baltic States versus Euro Area Crisis Countries

Axel Lindner

in: Intereconomics , Nr. 6, 2011

Abstract

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have succeeded in rapidly reducing their current account deficits despite fixed exchange rates. Which factors have played a major role in this? What similarities, and what differences, do the Baltic states show compared to Greece and Portugal? What insights can be gained for the political debate on the euro area debt crisis?

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel Sebastian Giesen Axel Lindner

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 4, 2014

Abstract

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

Publikation lesen

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Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

Makram El-Shagi Axel Lindner Gregor von Schweinitz

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 6, 2014

Abstract

Were real effective exchange rates (REER) of Euro area member countries drastically misaligned at the outbreak of the global financial crisis? The answer is difficult to determine because economic theory gives no simple guideline for determining the equilibrium values of real exchange rates, and the determinants of those values might have been distorted as well. To overcome these limitations, we use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member as a linear combination of a large set of non-Euro area countries. We find that Euro area crisis countries are best described by a mixture of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual REER with those of the counterfactuals gives sensible estimates of the misalignments at the start of the crisis: All peripheral countries were strongly overvalued, while high undervaluation is only observed for Finland.

Publikation lesen

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Evaluating communication strategies for public agencies: transparency, opacity, and secrecy

Axel Lindner

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 8, 2008

Abstract

This paper analyses in a simple global games framework welfare effects stemming from different communication strategies of public agencies if strategies of agents are complementary to each other: communication can either be fully transparent, or the agency opaquely publishes only its overall assessment of the economy, or it keeps information completely secret. It is shown that private agents put more weight to their private information in the transparent case than in case of opacity. Thus, in many cases, the appropriate measure against overreliance on public information is giving more details to the public instead of denying access to public information.

Publikation lesen
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