Dr. Manuel Buchholz

Dr. Manuel Buchholz
Aktuelle Position

seit 2/17

Research Affiliate

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 10/16

Volkswirt

Deutsche Bundesbank

Forschungsschwerpunkte

  • Integration internationaler Finanzmärkte
  • finanzielle Ansteckungsrisiken im Euroraum
  • Finanzmärkte und Realwirtschaft

Manuel Buchholz ist seit 2017 Research Affiliate am IWH in der Abteilung Finanzmärkte. Er forscht zu Themen der Integration internationaler Finanzmärkte und zu finanziellen Ansteckungsrisiken im Euroraum. Seit Oktober 2016 arbeitet Manuel Buchholz im Zentralbereich Finanzstabilität der Deutsche Bundesbank. Von 2013 bis 2016 war er als Doktorand am IWH beschäftigt.

Von 2006 bis 2011 studierte Manuel Buchholz an der Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen International Economics (B.Sc.) und International Economics and Finance (M.Sc.). Im Anschluss daran absolvierte er das zehnmonatige „Advanced Studies Program“ am Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW). Von April 2012 bis August 2013 war er wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Tübinger Lehrstuhl von Professorin Claudia M. Buch.

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Dr. Manuel Buchholz
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Publikationen

Uncertainty, Bank Lending, and Bank-Level Heterogeneity

Claudia M. Buch Manuel Buchholz Lena Tonzer

in: IMF Economic Review , Nr. 4, 2015

Abstract

We analyze how uncertainty affects bank lending. We measure uncertainty as the cross-sectional dispersion of shocks to bank-level variables. Comparing this measure of uncertainty in banking to more traditional measures of uncertainty, we find similar but no identical patterns. Higher uncertainty in banking has negative effects on bank lending. This effect is heterogeneous across banks: lending by banks that are better capitalized and have higher liquidity buffers tends to be affected less. Also, the degree of internationalization matters, as loan supply by banks in financially open countries is affected less by uncertainty. The impact of the ownership status of the individual bank is less important, in contrast.

Publikation lesen

Sovereign Credit Risk Co-Movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?

Manuel Buchholz Lena Tonzer

in: International Finance , im Erscheinen

Abstract

We investigate credit risk co-movements and contagion in the sovereign debt markets of 17 industrialized countries during the period 2008–2012. We use dynamic conditional correlations of sovereign credit default swap spreads to detect contagion. This approach allows us to separate contagion channels from the determinants of simple interdependence. The results show that, first, sovereign credit risk co-moves considerably, particularly among eurozone countries and during the sovereign debt crisis. Second, contagion varies across time and countries. Third, similarities in economic fundamentals, cross-country linkages in banking and common market sentiment constitute the main channels of contagion.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty

Manuel Buchholz Lena Tonzer J. Berner

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere , Nr. 7, 2016

Abstract

This paper analyzes how firm-specific uncertainty affects firms’ propensity to invest. We measure firm-specific uncertainty as firms’ absolute forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011. In line with the literature, our empirical findings reveal a negative impact of firm-specific uncertainty on investment. However, further results show that the investment response is asymmetric, depending on the size and direction of the forecast error. The investment propensity declines significantly if the realized situation is worse than expected. However, firms do not adjust their investment if the realized situation is better than expected, which suggests that the uncertainty effect counteracts the positive effect due to unexpectedly favorable business conditions. This can be one explanation behind the phenomenon of slow recovery in the aftermath of financial crises. Additional results show that the forecast error is highly concurrent with an ex-ante measure of firm-specific uncertainty we obtain from the survey data. Furthermore, the effect of firm-specific uncertainty is enforced for firms that face a tighter financing situation.

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How Effective is Macroprudential Policy during Financial Downturns? Evidence from Caps on Banks' Leverage

Manuel Buchholz

in: Working Papers of Eesti Pank , Nr. 7, 2015

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of a macroprudential policy instrument, caps on banks' leverage, on domestic credit to the private sector since the Global Financial Crisis. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to a panel of 69 advanced and emerging economies over 2002–2014, we show that real credit grew after the crisis at considerably higher rates in countries which had implemented the leverage cap prior to the crisis. This stabilising effect is more pronounced for countries in which banks had a higher pre-crisis capital ratio, which suggests that after the crisis, banks were able to draw on buffers built up prior to the crisis due to the regulation. The results are robust to different choices of subsamples as well as to competing explanations such as standard adjustment to the pre-crisis credit boom.

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Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?

Manuel Buchholz Lena Tonzer

in: UniCredit & Universities Foundation, Working Paper Series No. 47 , Nr. 47, 2013

Abstract

We investigate credit risk co-movements and contagion in sovereign debt markets of 17 industrialized countries for the period 2008-2012. We use dynamic conditional correlations of sovereign CDS spreads to detect contagion. This approach allows separating the channels through which contagion occurs from the determinants of simple interdependence. The results show that, first, sovereign credit risk comoves considerably, in particular among eurozone countries and during the sovereign debt crisis. Second, contagion cannot be attributed to one moment in time but varies across time and countries. Third, similarities in economic fundamentals, cross-country linkages in banking, and common market sentiment constitute the main channels of contagion.

Publikation lesen
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