Suburban Municipalities on Trial – Analysing the Sustainability of Socioeconomic Structures at the Example of the Municipality Schkopau
Sabine Döhler, Alexander Kubis
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
This article analyses socio-economic criteria of municipalities next to large cities. In a case study, we examine the municipality Schkopau in the south of Saxony-Anhalt. We ask if the fusion of smaller communes to this “new” municipality created in 2004 was rational in terms of sustainable socio-economic structures. Hence, we use the criteria of satellite towns developed by Boustedt.
We show that the criterion of political independence is assured by law. Meanwhile, the criteria independence of culture and urban development are not completely fulfilled. Due to the high density of industrial enterprises, the municipality has high tax revenue and therefore a strong financial basis. Also, the criterion of the minimum population figure is implemented.
Based on the specific results of the satellite town criteria, we could not find definite results for the municipality Schkopau, they are rather ambivalent. This result is partly caused by the strong interactions within the functional area of the provinces Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Due to the high dynamic of the structural change, we also point out the necessity to enhance the criteria for sustainable socio-economic structures of local and regional municipalities.
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Business Cycle Forecast, Summer 2008: Price Hikes and Financial Crisis Cloud Growth Prospects
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
In the summer of 2008 the turmoil on financial markets and that on the markets for energy dim the prospects for the world economy. The acceleration of the oil price hike during the first half of the year has led to an increase in expected inflation and to higher interest rates on capital markets, while stock prices are going down. At the same time, the financial crisis is far from over, and banks in the US and in Western Europe continue in their efforts to consolidate their balance sheets. Thus, the expansion of credit supply will be scarcer in the next quarters. All this means that demand will slow in the developed economies during the next quarters. However, the massive fiscal stimulus will help the US economy to stabilize, and the world economy still benefits from the high growth dynamics in the emerging markets economies. All in all, the developed economies will not reach their potential growth rate before the second half of 2009. In Germany, the upswing comes to a temporary halt during summer of this year. Slowing foreign demand and the oil price hike induce firms to postpone investments, and private consumption, the soft spot of the upswing in Germany, is still sluggish due to high inflation rates that impair purchasing power. For the end of 2008, chances are good that growth in Germany accelerates again, because German exporters are still penetrating emerging markets as competitiveness does not diminish. All in all, the German economy will grow by 2.3% in 2008 (mainly due to the very high dynamics at the beginning of the year) and by 1.3% in 2009. A main risk of this forecast is that monetary policy fails in easing the high inflationary pressures. As to fiscal policy, efforts to reach sustainable public finances should not weaken.
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Eastern German Economy: No Catching-up in 2008 and 2009
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
In the New Lander, growth of production is characterized by two diverging developments. On the one hand, the manufacturing sector has expanded strongly while the public service sector as well as the retail sectors has considerably damped economic activity. On the other hand, those firms primarily bound to local markets have gained hardly any momentum, whereas others have been stimulated by external markets in Western Germany and abroad. These differences are mainly due to weak local demand in the wake of a low purchasing power and an ongoing reduction in the population. At the same time, export-oriented firms in the manufacturing sector have benefited from strong external demand, and they will further benefit from it, although somewhat less owing to the slowing world economy. However, as East German exporting firms are less exposed to those countries where the ongoing crisis in the real estate and the financial sector has unfolded its dampening effects the most, they are also less prone to it. Accordingly, gross domestic product will increase by 1,7% this year and 0,8% in 2009. This translates into further improvements on labor markets. Registered unemployment will fall below one million. In particular, manufacturing firms and the private business service sector will increase their demand for labor.
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Aktuelle Trends: Untere Einkommensgruppen sind an Kosten des ökologischen Umbaus der Energiewirtschaft stark überproportional beteiligt
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
Wie kein anderes Land der Welt fördert Deutschland den ökologischen Umbau der Energiewirtschaft – die installierte „grüne“ Leistung in Deutschland liegt sogar über der der USA. Dies ruht auf drei wichtigen, direkt beim Abnehmer zahlungswirksam werdenden Säulen: den Einspeisevergütungen des Erneuerbare Energie-Gesetzes, den CO2-Lizenzen und der Ökosteuer auf Strom.
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In Focus: State is Winner of Recent German Upswing
Axel Lindner
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
In 2006 and 2007, production expanded briskly in Germany. Real disposable incomes of private households, however, were almost stagnant. This article sheds, with help of national accounts data, some light on the reasons for this discrepancy: By far the most important factor is that the share of the general government in the disposable income of the whole economy increased strongly. The share of corporations in the disposable income increased, too. Finally, the deflator for consumption rose by more than the deflator of GDP mainly because of the price hike for imported commodities and energy.
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Aktuelle Trends: Innovationstätigkeit in Ostdeutschland ungebrochen
Jutta Günther, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
Innovationen im Sinne neuer Produkte und Produktionsprozesse sind Ausdruck des technischen Fortschritts und ein wesentlicher Faktor für die betriebliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Wie die aktuelle Welle des IAB-Betriebspanels von 2007 zeigt, kann sich das Verarbeitende Gewerbe in Ostdeutschland im Vergleich zu Westdeutschland auf allen drei Gebieten der Produktinnovationen gut behaupten. Jeweils die Hälfte aller Betriebe in Ost- und Westdeutschland führte im Befragungszeitraum (2005 bis 2006) mindestens eine der drei Produktinnovationen (Weiterentwicklung vorhandener Produkte, die Erweiterung der Produktpalette um bereits am Markt vorhandene Produkte und die Einführung von Marktneuheiten) durch. Betrachtet man die Marktneuheiten, also die für die technologische Leistungsfähigkeit besonders relevanten Innovationen, so liegen Ost- und Westdeutschland mit 14% bzw. 13% praktisch gleichauf (2002 bis 2003 waren es 8% bzw. 6%). Die hinsichtlich der Marktneuheiten besonders innovativen Branchen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Ostdeutschland sind die Chemische Industrie, die Elektrotechnik sowie der Bereich Gummi und Kunststoffe. Im Vergleich dazu sind in Westdeutschland die Elektrotechnik und der Sonstige Fahrzeugbau, zu dem auch der Flugzeugbau zählt, die innovativsten Branchen.
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Stages of the Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset Bubble?
Lucjan T. Orlowski
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
This study argues that the severity of the current global financial crisis is strongly influenced by changeable allocations of the global excess liquidity. This process is named a “wandering asset bubble”. Since its original outbreak induced by the demise of the subprime mortgage market and the mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., this crisis has reverberated across other credit areas, structured financial products and global financial institutions. Four distinctive stages of the crisis are distinguished: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, spillovers into broader credit market, the fallout of Bear Sterns with some contagion effects on other financial institutions, and the commodity price bubble. Monetary policy responses aimed at stabilizing financial markets are proposed.
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Editorial
Joachim Wilde
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
Im Jahr 2007 nahm die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland um durchschnittlich 653 000 Personen zu, für 2008 prognostizieren die führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute in ihrer Gemeinschaftsdiagnose vom Frühjahr eine weitere Zunahme um durchschnittlich 471 000 Personen. Damit verbunden ist eine Senkung der Arbeitslosenzahlen auf 3,61 bzw. 3,05 Millionen Personen. Das sind erfreuliche Nachrichten, die bei allen Wolken am wirtschaftlichen Horizont nicht kleingeredet werden sollten.
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Spatially Concentrated Industries as Innovation Driver? – Empirical Evidence from East Germany
Christoph Hornych, Michael Schwartz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
A positive relation between the spatial concentration of sectors and their capacity of innovation is frequently assumed in regional science as well as in regional development policy. Therefore, with the support of sectoral agglomeration, effects on the regional technological performance are expected. However, previous empirical work is inconsistent in supporting this interdependency.
This study aims to examine the effects of sectoral agglomeration on innovative activities in East-German regions. For this purpose, spatially concentrated industries are identified and included in the estimation of regional ‘knowledge-production-functions’. Contrary to expectations, the spatial concentration seems to inhibit the amount of patent-activities of the sector in the specific region. In contrast, positive effects are generated from research facilities. Moreover, we find evidence for intersectoral spillovers.
The results show that for innovative activities, urbanization effects have a higher relevance as localization effects. So far, spatially concentrated industries are not an innovation driver in East Germany.
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IWH-Industrieumfrage im Juli 2008: Geschäftsklima trübt sich ein
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2008
Abstract
Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands kühlt sich das Geschäftsklima ab. Das zeigen die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage vom Juli unter rund 300 ostdeutschen Unternehmen. Eine große Mehrzahl der Industrieunternehmen bewertet allerdings sowohl ihre gegenwärtige Lage als auch die Aussichten für das nächste halbe Jahr nach wie vor positiv. Der Saldo positiver gegenüber negativen Stimmen zur Geschäftslage ist seit der vorangegangenen Umfrage jedoch um drei Punkte gesunken und der Saldo der Geschäftsaussichten um elf.
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