IWH Industry Survey: Positive mood further improved in May 1997
Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
1997
Abstract
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IWH Industry Survey: Positive mood in East German industry.
Doris Gladisch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
1998
Abstract
Die Unternehmen des ostdeutschen Verarbeitenden Gewerbes beurteilen ihre derzeitige Lage sehr optimistisch. Die Lageeinschätzungen der Hersteller von Vorleistungsgütern für die Industrie sind deutlich optimistischer als die der Unternehmen, die als Zulieferer eng an die Baukonjunktur gekoppelt sind.
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Trade's Impact on the Labor Share: Evidence from German and Italian Regions
Claudia M. Buch
IAW Discussion Paper No. 46,
2008
Abstract
Has the labor share declined? And what is the impact of international trade? These
questions are not only relevant in an international context they also matter for
understanding the regional distribution of incomes in a given country. In this
paper, we study two regions with trade exposures that differ from the rest of the
country, and which display distinct changes in the labor share. East German and
Southern Italian regions have a degree of international openness which is below
the countries’ averages. At the same time, there has been a more pronounced
decline in the labor share in East Germany than in West Germany. In Southern
Italy, the labor share has increased in recent years. We show that increased trade
openness is not the main culprit behind changing labor shares.
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The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2465,
2008
Abstract
Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle model, hypotheses on the determinants of the relative volatility of capital and labor are derived. The model is tested using industry-level data. The data cover 11 industrialized countries, 22 manufacturing and services industries, and a maximum of 35 years. The paper has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor and capital incomes has declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the idiosyncratic component of income volatility has hardly changed over time. Third, crosssectional heterogeneity in the evolution of relative income volatilities is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile in relative terms. Fourth, income volatility is related to variables measuring the bargaining power of workers. Trade openness has no significant impact.
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Regional origins of employment volatility: evidence from German states
Claudia M. Buch
CES IFO Working Paper No. 2296,
2008
Abstract
Greater openness for trade can have positive welfare effects in terms of higher growth. But increased openness may also increase uncertainty through a higher volatility of employment. We use regional data from Germany to test whether openness for trade has an impact on volatility. We find a downward trend in the unconditional volatility of employment, paralleling patterns for output volatility. The conditional volatility of employment, measuring idiosyncratic developments across states, in contrast, has remained fairly unchanged. In contrast to evidence for the US, we do not find a significant link between employment volatility and trade openness.
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Politik für periphere, ländliche Räume – Für eine eigenständige und selbstverantwortliche Regionalentwicklung
P. Dehne, K. Borchard, U. Grabski-Kieron, J. Kaether, H. Kistenmacher, Jürgen Maier, H. Zeck, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Positionspapier aus der Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung (ARL), Nr. 77,
2008
Abstract
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Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Germany 1975-1998
Oliver Holtemöller, Torsten Schmidt
Ruhr Economic Paper 68,
2008
Abstract
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Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity
Katja Drechsel, L. Maurin
ECB Working Paper, no. 925,
2008
Abstract
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Evidence on the effects of inflation on price dispersion under indexation
Juliane Scharff, S. Schreiber
IMK Working Paper, No. 12/2008,
2008
Abstract
Distortionary effects of inflation on relative prices are the main argument for inflation stabilization in macro models with sticky prices. Under indexation of non-optimized prices those models imply a nonlinear and dynamic impact of inflation on the cross-sectional price dispersion (relative-price variability, RPV). Using US sectoral prices we estimate (a generalized form of) the theoretical relationship between inflation and RPV. We confirm the impact of inflation fluctuations but find hitherto neglected endogeneity biases, and our IV and GMM estimates indicate that average (“trend“) inflation is significant for indexation. Lagged inflation is less important.
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