12th IWH-CIREQ Macroeconometric Workshop: Recent Developments in Macroeconometrics

Keynote Speakers

• Michael R. Wickens (University of York)
  How useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?
  
  There is a long tradition of using macroeconometric models for forecasting. The increasing employment of DSGE models in macroeconomics has brought into question the validity of conventional macroeconometric models. This paper considers the implications of the DSGE revolution for macroeconomic forecasting and whether one might be better advised to use standard time series forecasting methods instead.
  
  
• Mathias Hoffmann (University of Zurich)
  The Macroeconometrics of Financial Globalization: Some Recent Developments and Challenges
  
  The lecture offers a review of recent empirical evidence on the macroeconomic impact of financial globalization over the last two decades. For example, it is still controversial whether financial globalization has really increased international risk sharing. The empirical literature gives some responses to econometric pitfalls encountered in the empirical analysis of this question. In a second part, low-frequency linkages between consumption, wealth and asset prices will be discussed as well as how the econometrics of wealth effects impacts on our understanding of international transmission of asset price shocks and financial market integration. Further theoretical and empirical challenges lie ahead: the contradicting implications of asset-market-based and consumption-based indicators of financial market integration and potential avenues for resolving this discrepancy. Finally, some policy lessons to be drawn from the procyclicality of risk sharing during the recent financial crisis will be outlined.

Workshop Documentation

Presentations and Papers (ZIP file, 7.3 MB)