Parents influence their children in many ways, but which family features actually cause the strong intergenerational linkages that we observe? This column presents the first causal evidence on cognitive skill transmission in the family. Using Dutch survey and registry data, the authors show that parents’ maths and language skills strongly affect the same skills in their children, and that skills within dynasties are not just genetically determined but are significantly affected by educational experiences. This highlights the importance of good educational environments in alleviating persistent inequalities. 

The standard economic model of occupational choice following a basic Roy model emphasizes individual selection and comparative advantage, but the sources of comparative advantage are not well understood. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations and permits analysis of the intergenerational transmission of comparative skill advantages. Exploiting within-family between-subject variation in skills, we show that comparative advantages in math of parents are significantly linked to those of their children. A causal interpretation follows from a novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parent skill advantages due to their teacher and classroom peer quality. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields.

In most countries, childbirth has a negative impact on the labour market outcomes of mothers, especially for those with lower socioeconomic status. This column presents findings from a field experiment in Germany demonstrating that access to universal early childcare increases full-time employment and household income of mothers with lower socioeconomic status. To improve the labour market outcomes of these mothers, policymakers must provide easier access to early childcare and expand early childcare slots. 

Ein Großteil der Jugendlichen in Deutschland beginnt nach der Schule eine duale Berufsausbildung. Die Inhalte dieser Berufsausbildungen und die dort vermittelten Kompetenzen sind bundesweit einheitlich in Ausbildungsplänen geregelt. Wir erfassen insgesamt mehr als 13 000 verschiedene Kompetenzen aus diesen Ausbildungsplänen, sowie deren genaue Lerndauer. Vor allem kognitive, soziale und digitale Kompetenzen, die während der Ausbildung erworben wurden, zahlen sich auf dem Arbeitsmarkt aus. Dabei steigen die Einkommenserträge höherer Kompetenzen über die Karriere hinweg an. Das zeigt unsere Analyse der Ausbildungsplandaten kombiniert mit administrativen Lohndaten des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) über einen Zeitraum von insgesamt 30 Jahren. Außerdem dokumentieren wir steigende Erträge von digitalen und sozialen Kompetenzen seit den 1990er Jahren, während die Erträge von kognitiven Kompetenzen nur geringfügig zugenommen haben.

In den meisten Ländern wirkt sich die Geburt eines Kindes negativ auf den Arbeitsmarkterfolg von Müttern aus, insbesondere bei Müttern mit niedrigerem Schulabschluss. In diesem Beitrag werden die Ergebnisse eines Feldexperiments in Deutschland vorgestellt, in dem Familien bei der Bewerbung für einen Platz in einer Kindertagesstätte (Kita) unterstützt wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der verbesserte Zugang zu frühkindlicher Betreuung die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöht, dass Mütter ohne Abitur in Vollzeit arbeiten, und deren Haushaltseinkommen steigert. Um den Arbeitsmarkterfolg von Müttern zu verbessern, sollte die Politik den Zugang zu frühkindlicher Betreuung erleichtern und die Zahl der Kita-Plätze noch weiter erhöhen.

It is well established that female students perform better when taught by female professors. However, little is known about the mechanisms explaining these gender match effects. Using administrative records from a German public university, which cover all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018, we show that gender match effects are sizable in smaller classes, but are absent in larger classes. These results suggest that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are crucial for gender match effects to emerge. In contrast, the mere fact that one’s professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students.

The standard economic model of occupational choice following a basic Roy model emphasizes individual selection and comparative advantage, but the sources of comparative advantage are not well understood. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations and permits analysis of the intergenerational transmission of comparative skill advantages. Exploiting within-family between-subject variation in skills, we show that comparative advantages in math of parents are significantly linked to those of their children. A causal interpretation follows from a novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parent skill advantages due to their teacher and classroom peer quality. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields.

Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers they displace from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate differencein- differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of postdisplacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices.

The recent moderate pace of the global economy will continue for the time being. In Europe, the economy is likely to pick up slightly from the winter half-year 2024/2025. In Germany, the sluggish export business in particular is providing a lack of economic impetus. However, private consumption will contribute to a slight economic recovery in the winter half-year. Gross domestic product is likely to stagnate in 2024 and grow by 1.0% in 2025.

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.