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Year
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Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf
Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult, Götz Zeddies
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, No. 3, 2018
Abstract
In the coalition agreement from February 7, 2018, the new German federal government drafts its public pension policy, which has to be evaluated against the background of demographic dynamics in Germany. In this paper, the consequences of public pensions related policy measures for the German public pension insurance are illustrated using a simulation model. In the long run, the intended extensions of benefits would lead to an increase in the contribution rate to the German public pension insurance of about two and a half percentage points. Referring to pension systems of other countries, we discuss measures in order to limit this increase in the contribution rate.
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On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU
Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Andreas Schmalzbauer, Götz Zeddies
Intereconomics, No. 4, 2016
Abstract
The current situation regarding the migration of refugees can only be handled efficiently through closer international cooperation in the field of asylum policy. From an economic point of view, it would be reasonable to distribute incoming refugees among all EU countries according to a distribution key that reflects differences in the costs of integration in the individual countries. An efficient distribution would even out the marginal costs of integrating refugees. In order to reach a political agreement, the key for distributing refugees should be complemented by compensation payments that distribute the costs of integration among countries. The key for distributing refugees presented by the EU Commission takes account of appropriate factors in principle, but it is unclear in terms of detail. The compensation payments for countries that should take relatively high numbers of refugees for cost efficiency reasons should be financed by reallocating resources within the EU budget.
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Skill Content of Intra-european Trade Flows
Götz Zeddies
European Journal of Comparative Economics, No. 1, 2013
Abstract
In recent decades, the international division of labor has expanded rapidly in the wake of European integration. In this context, especially Western European high-wage countries should have specialized on (human-)capital intensively manufactured goods and should have increasingly sourced labor-intensively manufactured goods, especially parts and components, from Eastern European low wage countries. Since this should be beneficial for the high-skilled and harmful to the lower-qualified workforce in high-wage countries, the opening up of Eastern Europe is often considered as a vital reason for increasing unemployment of the lower-qualified in Western Europe. This paper addresses this issue by analyzing the skill content of Western European countries’ bilateral trade using input-output techniques in order to evaluate possible effects of international trade on labor demand. Thereby, differences in factor inputs and production technologies have been considered, allowing for vertical product differentiation. In this case, skill content of bilateral exports and imports partially differs substantially, especially in bilateral trade between Western and Eastern European countries. According to the results, East-West trade should be harmful particularly to the medium-skilled in Western European countries.
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Has the Euro Increased International Price Elasticities?
Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
Empirica, No. 1, 2013
Abstract
The introduction of the Euro has been accompanied by the hope that international competition between EMU member states would increase due to higher price transparency. This paper contributes to the literature by analyzing price elasticities in international trade flows between Germany and France and between Germany and the United Kingdom before and after the introduction of the Euro. Using disaggregated Eurostat trade statistics, we adopt a heterogeneous dynamic panel framework for the estimation of price elasticities. We suggest a Kalman-filter approach to control for unobservable quality changes which otherwise would bias estimates of price elasticities. We divide the complete sample, which ranges from 1995 to 2008, into two sub-samples and show that price elasticities in trade between EMU members did not change substantially after the introduction of the Euro. Hence, we do not find evidence for an increase in international price competition resulting from EMU.
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European Integration and National Labor Markets - On the Factor Content of Intra-European Trade Flows
Götz Zeddies
European Journal of Comparative Economics, 2012
Abstract
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International Trade Patterns and Labour Markets – An Empirical Analysis for EU Member States
Götz Zeddies
International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2012
Abstract
During the last decades, international trade flows of the industrialized countries became more and more intra-industry. At the same time, employment perspectives particularly of the low-skilled by tendency deteriorated in these countries. This phenomenon is often traced back to the fact that intra-industry trade (IIT), which should theoretically involve low labour market adjustment, became increasingly vertical in nature. Against this background, the present paper investigates the relationship between international trade patterns and selected labour market indicators in European countries. As the results show, neither inter- nor vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) do have a verifiable effect on wage spread in EU member states. As far as structural unemployment is concerned, the latter increases only with the degree of countries’ specialization on capital intensively manufactured products in inter-industry trade relations. Only for unemployment of the less-skilled, a slightly significant impact of superior VIIT seems to exist.
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Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production in European Union
Götz Zeddies
Empirica, No. 4, 2011
Abstract
The growth in world trade during the last decades was largely caused by increasing bilateral exchanges of parts and components as a consequence of international fragmentation of production. This paper reveals empirical evidence on parts and components trade as an indicator for international fragmentation of production in the European Union and determines its main explanatory factors. The results of a panel data analysis show that especially industry-specific factors as well as transportation and communication infrastructure are likewise important for shifting production to or sourcing components from foreign countries.
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Der Euro als Triebfeder des deutschen Exports?
Götz Zeddies
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, No. 3, 2011
Abstract
The excessive accumulation of debt especially in the southern member states currently challenges European Monetary Union (EMU). Whereas for a long time, preventing a break-up of EMU was indisputable, in the meantime, voices were being raised claiming a withdrawal of Greece from the currency union. Especially in Germany, a withdrawal of individual members from the currency union (or even a complete break-up of EMU) is associated with economic disadvantages. Particularly, it is argued that EMU is of greatest utility for Germany due to the countries’ longstanding wage moderation and strong export orientation. Against this background, this paper analyzes the effects of a withdrawal of individual member states from the currency union on German exports. Thereby, it is assumed that a withdrawal of those countries from EMU would be accompanied by real devaluations. As the analyses show, the impact of a withdrawal of Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal from the currency union on German exports would be rather small. However, since European Monetary Union as a whole is still the most important foreign market for German manufacturers, a complete break-up of EMU could noticeably weaken German export performance.
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“Geschäftsmodell Deutschland“ und außenwirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte in der EU
Renate Ohr, Götz Zeddies
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, 2010
Abstract
During the last decades, current account imbalances increased all over the world. In this context, countries with current account surpluses, in the European Union especially Germany, are increasingly blamed for their modest wage policies, which are seen as the main reason for global imbalances. On the basis of a panel data model, the present paper indentifies the determinants of current account imbalances of EU Member States. As the results show, price competitiveness is, although significant, only one out of many explanatory variables. Instead, current account imbalances are substantially caused by divergent propensities to save. This does not only relate to public, but also to private savings. Accordingly, demands addressed to Germany and other countries for higher wage agreements alone would be unrewarding. Instead, domestic demand in surplus countries should be increased by other means. On the other hand, in countries with current account deficits, existing savings potentials should be adequately exploited.
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Warum exportiert der Osten so wenig? Eine empirische Analyse der Exportaktivitäten deutscher Bundesländer
Götz Zeddies
AStA - Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, No. 4, 2009
Abstract
In the aftermath of re-unification, East German exports declined around 70% due to the breakdown of COMECON trade. Although since the mid-1990s export growth rates of the New Federal States were higher than those of their West German counterparts, export performance of East German States measured by the share of exports in GDP is still comparatively poor. Whereas for a long time the low export performance of East German producers was ascribed to competitive disadvantages, in the meantime structural deficits on the micro and/or macro level are often considered as the main reason. Using bilateral trade data of German Federal States, the present paper shows on the basis of an orthodox gravity model of trade that East German exports are explicitly lower than predicted by the model. But if the gravity model is augmented by additional variables representing structural differences between Federal States, the latter explain almost entirely the lower export performance of Eastern Germany. Thus, especially the smaller firm sizes and the lower shares of manufacturing industries in gross value added are identified as important explanatory factors of the comparatively weak export performance of the New German States.
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