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Year
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The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline
Makram El-Shagi
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, No. 5, 2011
Abstract
In this paper, it is shown that, contrary to standard arguments, fiscal discipline is not substantially enhanced by a fixed exchange rate regime. This study is based on data from 116 countries collected from 1975 to 2004 and uses various estimation techniques for dynamic panel data, in particular a GMM estimation in the tradition Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). Contrary to previous papers on this topic, the present paper takes into account that the consequences of a new exchange rate regime do not necessarily fully manifest immediately.
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The Role of Rating Agencies in Financial Crises: Event Studies from the Asian Flu
Makram El-Shagi
Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2010
Abstract
Based on case studies from countries that have been hit hardest by the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the present paper shows that the accusation that sovereign ratings led to a severe acceleration of the crisis is unconvincing and that the empirical method often used to support accusations against rating agencies is inappropriate for the problem under analysis. Rather, it must be emphasised that ratings were downgraded in most countries very shortly before the end of the crisis. In some countries, the ratings were even further downgraded after the end of the crisis as countries started to recover. This is not in line with the thesis that the crisis was accelerated by rating agencies.
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Capital Controls and International Interest Rate Differentials
Makram El-Shagi
Applied Economics, 2010
Abstract
Since the Asian crises it is often taken as granted that capital markets have significant functional deficits. Often these deficits are believed to be so very strong that the ability of free capital markets to guarantee a more or less correct international allocation of capital is denied. It is argued that speculation dominates capital markets so much that capital allocation is purely random. This is one of the major arguments backing the present trend to re-establish capital controls, which emerged after the capital market distortions observed during the Asian flu. In the present article it is shown that capital markets, while certainly prone to many distortions, are well capable of roughly guiding capital to the proper place. Though allocation is not model-like perfect, this steals the thunder from the idea, that closed or government-guided capital markets were able to perform better.
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Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzkrise
Makram El-Shagi, C. Ilgmann
ORDO, 2010
Abstract
Im vorliegenden Papier wird die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtungen zwischen Aktiengesellschaften (bzw. Kapitalgesellschaften im Allgemeinen) für die gegenwärtige Finanzmarktkrise herausgearbeitet. Durch den wechselseitigen Besitz von Firmen untereinander ist eine Situation entstanden, in denen bestellte Manager sich lediglich kontrollieren. Durch entstehende Abhängigkeiten und die innerhalb der verhältnismäßig kleinen Gruppe von Topmanagern mögliche implizite Koordination konnten Vorstände über die Entlohnungs- und damit auch über die Anreizsysteme, denen sie ausgesetzt sind, wesentlich mitentscheiden. Dies hat, wie gezeigt wird, erheblich zur Entstehung von Anreizsystemen beigetragen, die sich im Kern an kurzfristigen Erfolgen orientieren. Da insbesondere in der Finanzintermediation kurz- und langfristige Gewinnoptimierung durch die starke Korrelation von Risiko und Gewinnmöglichkeiten einem starken Trade- off unterliegen, haben diese Anreizsysteme wiederum eine erhebliche Rolle in der verfehlten Risikopolitik der Banken gespielt, die ein wesentliche Ursache der Krise war.
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Base Architecture for Preference Based Agents, Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics
Makram El-Shagi
, 2001
Abstract
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Die Einführung von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen mit Korruptionsabsichten
Makram El-Shagi
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, No. 4, 2007
Abstract
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Korruption, Institutionen und Einkommensniveau
Makram El-Shagi
Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, 2007
Abstract
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Property networks of corporations as cause of abusive behaviour – A stock market analysis based on institutional economics
Makram El-Shagi
Applied Financial Economics Letters, No. 5, 2005
Abstract
The present study deals with the fact that it seems as if executive boards have developed a self-service-mentality concerning the corporations they are meant to manage. The surprise about this is not the attempt of exploitation (rather the opposite would be surprising from an economic point of view) but the apparent absence of sanctions imposed by the owners. This study shows that this behaviour of corporations’ owners is at least to a main part due to the fact, that the reciprocal property of corporations prevents the exercise of certain property rights by the ‘true’ holders.
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