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Year
Refresh
Economic Sentiment: Disentangling Private Information from Public Knowledge
Katja Heinisch, Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2021
Abstract
This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions‘ consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.
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Technological Innovation and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
Iftekhar Hasan, Xiang Li, Tuomas Takalo
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 14, 2021
Abstract
This paper studies whether and how banks’ technological innovations affect the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission. We first provide a theoretical model in which banks’ technological innovation relaxes firms’ earning-based borrowing constraints and thereby enlarges the response of banks’ lending to monetary policy changes. To test the empirical implications, we construct a patent-based measurement of bank-level technological innovation, which can specify the nature of technology and tell whether it is related to the bank’s lending business. We find that lending-related innovations significantly strengthen the transmission of the bank lending channel.
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Dilemma and Global Financial Cycle: Evidence from Capital Account Liberalisation Episodes
Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 13, 2021
Abstract
By focusing on the episodes of substantial capital account liberalisation and adopting a new methodology, this paper provides new evidence on the dilemma and global financial cycle theory. I first identify the capital account liberalisation episodes for 95 countries from 1970 to 2016, and then employ an augmented inverse propensity score weighted (AIPW) estimator to calculate the average treatment effect (ATE) of opening capital account on the interest rate comovements with the core country. Results show that opening capital account causes a country to lose its monetary policy independence, and a floating exchange rate regime cannot shield this effect. Moreover, the impact is stronger when liberalising outward and banking flows.
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U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime Changes and Their Interactions
Yoosoon Chang, Boreum Kwak, Shi Qiu
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 12, 2021
Abstract
We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a regime-switching model of monetary and fiscal policy rules where policy mixes are determined by a latent bivariate autoregressive process consisting of monetary and fiscal policy regime factors, each determining a respective policy regime. Both policy regime factors receive feedback from past policy disturbances, and interact contemporaneously and dynamically to determine policy regimes. We find strong feedback and dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal authorities. The most salient features of these interactions are that past monetary policy disturbance strongly influences both monetary and fiscal policy regimes, and that monetary authority responds to past fiscal policy regime. We also find substantial evidence that the U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have been interacting: central bank responds less aggressively to inflation when fiscal authority puts less attention on debt stabilisation, and vice versa.
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Non-Standard Errors
Albert J. Menkveld, Anna Dreber, Felix Holzmeister, Juergen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Markus Kirchner, Sebastian Neusüss, Michael Razen, Utz Weitzel, et al.
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2021
Abstract
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a datagenerating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidencegenerating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
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The Impact of Delay: Evidence from Formal Out-of-Court Restructuring
Randall K. Filer, Dejan Kovač, Jacob N. Shapiro, Stjepan Srhoj
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2021
published in:
Journal of Corporate Finance
Abstract
Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a „pre-bankruptcy settlement“ (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms‘ future prospects.
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Cultural Resilience, Religion, and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season
Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia, Felix Noth
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2021
Abstract
This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.
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Alone at Home: The Impact of Social Distancing on Norm-consistent Behavior
Sabrina Jeworrek, Joschka Waibel
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2021
Abstract
Around the globe, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned daily live upside down since social distancing is probably the most effective means of containing the virus until herd immunity is reached. Social norms have been shown to be an important determinant of social distancing behaviors. By conducting two experiments and using the priming method to manipulate social isolation recollections, we study whether social distancing has in turn affected norms of prosociality and norm compliance. The normative expectations of what behaviors others would approve or disapprove in our experimental setting did not change. Looking at actual behavior, however, we find that persistent social distancing indeed caused a decline in prosociality – even after the relaxation of social distancing rules and in times of optimism. At the same time, our results contain some good news since subjects seem still to care for norms and become more prosocial once again after we draw their attention to the empirical norm of how others have previously behaved in a similar situation.
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Conditional Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors
Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2021
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank‘s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are related to assumptions about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. Our findings indicate that inflation forecasts are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are used primarily to predict output growth and unemployment. Expectations about exchange rates and wage growth also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than oil prices and interest rates. We show that survey participants can considerably improve forecast accuracy for macroeconomic outcomes by reducing prediction errors for external conditions. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the expectation formation process of experts.
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Deposit Competition and Securitization
Danny McGowan, Huyen Nguyen, Klaus Schaeck
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2021
Abstract
We provide novel evidence that deposit competition incentivizes banks to securitize loans. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as an exogenous source of competition, we document a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize their assets. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in costs of deposits and a corresponding decrease in banks’ deposit growth. Our results are strongest among small and single state incumbent banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight an unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.
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