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Old Age Poverty – Causes and a Projection for 2023

Several factors bring about a rise in old age poverty in Germany, especially in East Germany. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) we examine causes and extent of old age poverty in Germany. We begin our inquiry with a cross section regression in order to determine the impact of several factors on retirement incomes in Germany. In the second step we performan income projection of today’s 50 to 55 year-old people for the year 2023. In doing so, we take into account different sources of income, including several forms of capital income and the calculated rent of owner-occupied houses and flats.We find a significant rise in old age poverty especially in East Germany as a consequence of rising unemployment after the German unification.

16. October 2012

Authors Ingmar Kumpmann Michael Gühne Herbert S. Buscher

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