Firm Dynamics and Employment Outcomes
The group “Firm Dynamics and Employment Outcomes” analyses the foundation, evolution, and failure of firms, and subsequent consequences for individuals and regions. The group works on research questions around firm behaviour to explain recent phenomena such as business dynamism slowdown and wage inequality.
A central question to understand firm dynamism, mobility, innovation and the process of creative destruction is on the role of government interference. In this respect, the team analyses how connections of firms to politicians shape the business environment and to what extent firms benefit from having a political connection.
At the firm level, the group studies performance measures such as employment, sales, and market exit and investigates public procurement contracts, subsidies and political initiatives in terms of law proposals and draft laws that implicitly may generate higher entry barriers and distorts competition. This research will be informative for the overall economic environment and economic prosperity.
The way economies generate economic prosperity is central to our understanding of social mobility and welfare. Over the last three decades, Germany and the United States have shown similar productivity improvements. The way these improvements have been generated, however, differ remarkably. While startups in the United States are well-known for their innovation and radical advancements, the German business model relies to a large extent on established incumbent firms in the process of innovation and new technologies. The research group considers empirically and theoretically the role of entrepreneurship in this process and how it differs between Germany and the United States.
Understanding firm behaviour and the role of firms in our society contributes to the political and academic discussion on wage inequality and regional disparities. The sorting process of high productive workers into high productive firms has amplified over the last three decades with important implications for wages and aggregate inequality. Thus, the group examines the consequences of wage inequality between firms and to what extent selective mobility contributes to wage disparities.
The research group “Firm Dynamics and Employment Outcomes” further studies implications of innovative activities in the form of patenting on within-firm wage inequality. Examining impacts of new technologies and worker-level consequences will be informative about winners and losers in our society and informs policy makers on how to take action in terms of reskilling certain groups of the workforce.
The research group makes use of various administrative, survey and hand-collected data. The Establishment History Panel (BHP) provided by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MUP) provided by the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) provide firm-level information on the performance of firms over time. At the individual level, IAB’s Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) allows to study regional and wage mobility patterns of workers. European Patent Office data provide the basis for patenting activities. Web-scraped and survey data on political activities and opinions are exploited to study differential behaviour of politicians in parliament.
Research Cluster
Productivity and InstitutionsYour contact
- Department Labour Markets
EXTERNAL FUNDING
01.2020 ‐ 06.2024
The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe: The Dark Side of Globalization and Technological Change?
VolkswagenStiftung
Globalisation may have increased prosperity in general, but has also led to unemployment, wage inequality, outward migration and, thus, ageing populations in many European regions. This project examines whether these economic burdens lead to votes for populist parties.
01.2019 ‐ 06.2022
MICROPROD („Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data“)
Europäische Kommission
The goal of MICROPROD is to contribute to a greater understanding of the challenges brought about in Europe by the fourth industrial revolution and the associated ‘productivity puzzle’ in a context of globalisation and digitisation, and to provide alternative policy options to better address these challenges.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 764810.
07.2018 ‐ 12.2020
Firm Wage Differentials in Imperfect Labour Markets: The Role of Market Power and Industrial Relations in Rent Splitting between Workers and Firms
German Research Foundation (DFG)
The main purpose of this proposal is to grasp a firmer understanding of how employment rents are split between workers and employers in imperfect labour markets and how labour market institutions, such as unions and works councils, influence the distribution of rents. In that it not only promises new insights into the wage formation process and the likely consequences of important labour market trends like falling unionisation and worker codetermination, but also promises to inform important public policy debates, such as which rights should be granted to organised labour.
02.2019 ‐ 09.2019
Evaluation of the IAB Establishment Panel 2018 and Preparation of a Results Report for West and East Germany
Final report: Fehlende Fachkräfte in Deutschland – Unterschiede in den Betrieben und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018. IAB-Forschungsbericht 10/2019. (in German, English abstract available)
04.2016 ‐ 03.2019
Wage and Employment Effects of Bankruptcies
German Research Foundation (DFG)
The project analyzes the process and the consequences of firm failure. For the first time, evidence on the consequences of small firms’ bankruptcy on employees’ earnings and wages is provided. The project e.g. shows that employees of small firms are more likely to see their employer failing but, at the same time, face smaller earnings and wage losses than employees displaced from larger firms. Check the below research articles for further insights.
01.2018 ‐ 12.2018
Evaluation of the IAB Establishment Panel 2017 and Preparation of a Results Report for West and East Germany
Final report: Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Ausmaß und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2017. IAB-Forschungsbericht 6/2018. (in German, English abstract available)
01.2017 ‐ 09.2017
Evaluation of the IAB Establishment Panel 2016 and Preparation of a Results Report for West and East Germany
Final report: Produktivitätsunterschiede zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2016. IAB-Forschungsbericht 16/2017. (in German, English abstract available)
Refereed Publications
Gender Wage Discrimination: Does the Extent of Competition in Labor Markets Explain why Female Workers are Paid Less than Men?
in: IZA World of Labor, 2016
Abstract
There are pronounced and persistent wage differences between men and women in all parts of the world. A significant element of these wage disparities can be attributed to differences in worker and workplace characteristics, which are likely to mirror differences in worker productivity. However, a large part of these differences remains unexplained, and it is common to attribute them to discrimination by the employer that is rooted in prejudice against female workers. Yet recent empirical evidence suggests that, to a large extent, the gaps reflect “monopsonistic” wage discrimination—that is, employers exploiting their wage-setting power over women—rather than any sort of prejudice.
FDI, Human Capital and Income Convergence — Evidence for European Regions
in: Economic Systems, Vol. 40 (2), 2016
Abstract
This study examines income convergence in regional GDP per capita for a sample of 269 regions within the European Union (EU) between 2003 and 2010. We use an endogenous broad capital model based on foreign direct investment (FDI) induced agglomeration economies and human capital. By applying a Markov chain approach to a new dataset that exploits micro-aggregated sub-national FDI statistics, the analysis provides insights into regional income growth dynamics within the EU. Our results indicate a weak process of overall income convergence across EU regions. This does not apply to the dynamics within Central and East European countries (CEECs), where we find indications of a poverty trap. In contrast to FDI, regional human capital seems to be associated with higher income levels. However, we identify a positive interaction of FDI and human capital in their relation with income growth dynamics.
Dual Labor Markets at Work: The Impact of Employers’ Use of Temporary Agency Work on Regular Workers’ Job Stability
in: ILR Review, Vol. 69 (5), 2016
Abstract
Fitting duration models on an inflow sample of jobs in Germany starting in 2002 to 2010, the author investigates the impact of employers’ use of temporary agency work on regular workers’ job stability. In line with dual labor market theory, the author finds that nontemporary jobs are significantly more stable when employers use temporary agency workers. The rise in job stability stems mainly from reduced transitions into nonemployment, suggesting that nontemporary workers are safeguarded against involuntary job losses. The findings are robust to controlling for unobserved permanent employer characteristics and changes in the observational window that comprises the labor market disruption of the Great Recession.
Spinoffs in Germany: Characteristics, Survival, and the Role of their Parents
in: Small Business Economics, Vol. 46 (1), 2016
Abstract
Using a 50 % sample of all private sector establishments in Germany, we report that spinoffs are larger, initially employ more skilled and more experienced workers, and pay higher wages than other startups. We investigate whether spinoffs are more likely to survive than other startups, and whether spinoff survival depends on the quality and size of their parent companies, as suggested in some of the theoretical and empirical literature. Our estimated survival models confirm that spinoffs are generally less likely to exit than other startups. We also distinguish between pulled spinoffs, where the parent company continues after they are founded, and pushed spinoffs, where the parent company stops operations. Our results indicate that in western and eastern Germany and in all sectors investigated, pulled spinoffs have a higher probability of survival than pushed spinoffs. Concerning the parent connection, we find that intra-industry spinoffs and spinoffs emerging from better-performing or smaller parent companies are generally less likely to exit.
How Selective Are Real Wage Cuts? A Micro-analysis Using Linked Employer–Employee Data
in: LABOUR: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, Vol. 29 (4), 2015
Abstract
Using linked employer–employee panel data for Germany, we investigate whether firms implement real wage reductions in a selective manner. In line with insider–outsider and several strands of efficiency wage theory, we find strong evidence for selective wage cuts with high-productivity workers being spared even when controlling for permanent differences in firms' wage policies. In contrast to some recent contributions stressing fairness considerations, we also find that wage cuts increase wage dispersion among peers rather than narrowing it. Notably, the same selectivity pattern shows up when restricting our analysis to firms covered by collective agreements or having a works council.
Working Papers
Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2026
Abstract
We revisit the employer size wage effect (ESWE) – arguably the most basic and influential departure from the law of one price for labor. Our main result is that this canonical fact disappears completely across establishments within the same firm, even though they operate in different local labor markets. We uncover and dissect this fact by including a firm fixed effect in otherwise standard cross-sectional regressions of wages on establishment size. We implement this demanding specification in population-wide triple-linked firm-establishment-employee data in Germany. This result is new in the ESWE literature (for which our paper also provides the first systematic meta-analysis). This wage-size decoupling is hard to square with the view that employment is determined along a finitely elastic employerspecific labor supply curve – i.e., employers pay exactly the minimum needed for the quantity of labor, but no more – the foundation of the monopsony view. By contrast, large multi-establishment firms (MEF) appear to hire off their labor supply curves (or those curves are very elastic), pay wage premia above the monopsonistic minimum, and leave excess labor supply. We find some evidence for a reemergence of the ESWE within low-premium MEFs. Overall, at least for the 25% of German employment in large firms for which the ESWE disappears, wage setting and employment determination may be better accounted for by alternative models, namely accommodating above-market-clearing wage premia and rationing of labor supply, such as efficiency wage theories.
Patents, Firm Rents, and Worker Compensation: Causal Evidence from Quasi-random Patent Allocation
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2026
Abstract
This paper provides new causal evidence on how patent allowances affect firms and their employees based on quasi-random assignment of patent applications to examiners. Exploiting employer-employee records with newly linked German firm data and web-scraped patent documents, we show that patent-induced shocks reduce firm exit, improve productivity, and increase wages, with rent-sharing elasticities between 0.10 and 0.21. Wage gains are broadly observed across occupational tasks, with high heterogeneity: managers benefit disproportionately in publicly traded firms, whereas broader wage increases accrue to workers in non-traded firms. Our findings highlight the role of institutional features and firm organization in shaping how rents are shared.
The Geography of Worker-Firm Sorting: Drivers of Rising Colocation
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2025
Abstract
Spatial segregation of low- and high-wage workers is a persistent economic issue with broad social implications. Using social security data and an AKM wage decomposition, this paper examines spatial wage inequality in West Germany. Spatial inequality in log wages rose sharply between 1998 and 2008, mainly due to increased variance in worker pay premiums across regions (48%) and stronger positive spatial assortative matching of workers and establishments (40%), i.e. colocation. Changes in establishment wage premia are mostly unrelated to rising colocation whereas labor mobility even reduced it. Instead, growth in worker pay premiums among stayers was concentrated in regions where high-wage workers and high-wage establishments were overrepresented already in the 1990s and, thus, magnified pre-existing colocation leading to ‘colocation without relocation’. Germany’s rising trade surplus, especially with Eastern Europe, boosted stayers’ worker pay premiums in those ex-ante high-wage regions and fully explains rising colocation.
The Distribution of National Income in Germany, 1992-2019
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 25, 2024
Abstract
This paper analyzes the distribution and composition of pre-tax national income in Germany since 1992, combining personal income tax returns, household survey data, and national accounts. Inequality rose from the 1990s to the late 2000s due to falling labor incomes among the bottom 50% and rising incomes in the top 10%. This trend reversed after 2007 as labor incomes across the bottom 90% increased. The top 1% income share, dominated by business income, remained relatively stable between 1992 and 2019. A large share of Germany’s top 1% earners are non-corporate business owners in labor-intensive professions. At least half of the business owners in P99-99.9 and a quarter in the top 0.1% operate firms in professional services – a pattern mirroring the United States. From 1992 to 2019, Germany’s top 0.1% income concentration exceeded France’s and matched U.S. levels until the late 2000s.
Do Politicians Affect Firm Outcomes? Evidence from Connections to the German Federal Parliament
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2024
Abstract
We examine how connections to German federal parliamentarians influence firm dynamics using a novel dataset linking politicians and election candidates to the universe of firms. To identify the causal effects of political access, we exploit (i) new appointments to the company leadership team and (ii) discontinuities around the marginal seat of party election lists. Results reveal that political connections reduce firm exits and gradually increase employment growth, with heterogeneous productivity effects depending on the political mandate. Incorporating data on credit ratings, subsidies, and procurement contracts allows us to identify the mechanisms driving the effects over the politician’s career.