25 Years IWH

Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasts

This research group belongs to the IWH Research Cluster Macroeconomic Dynamics and Stability. The group comprises all macroeconomic analyses, forecasts and policy papers that are carried out on a regular basis at the IWH. These reports contribute significantly to the IWH being one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. The group focuses on current macroeconomic perspectives in Germany. However, forecasts for an open economy like the German one have to start from thorough and up-to-date analysis of the world economy. Special attention is given to East Germany, Central European countries, and to the European Union as a whole.

Research in this group is linked closely to other projects within the cluster that focus on publishing research papers in refereed journals. In particular, econometric tools developed by Research Group Econometric Tools for Macroeconomic Forecasting are applied for the macroeconomic projections, and policy conclusions derived by Research Group Monetary Aggregates, Asset Prices and Real Outcomes are important building blocks for policy recommendations.

IWH Data Project: IWH Macrometer: Macroeconomic Database for the German Länder, East and West Germany

All of the group’s macroeconomic analyses, forecasts and policy papers are available via the Current Forecasting section.

Research Cluster
Macroeconomic Dynamics and Stability

Your contact

Dr Axel Lindner
Dr Axel Lindner
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-703

EXTERNAL FUNDING

01.2017 ‐ 12.2017

Flash Estimate of the Quarterly GDP in Germany

Verlagsgruppe Handelsblatt

Dr Katja Heinisch

07.2013 ‐ 06.2016

Joint Economic Forecast

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)

The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating the overall economic situation and development in Germany, the euro area and the rest of the world. For this purpose, forecasts of economic activity are generated for the global economy and its major regions. Economic policy recommendations are derived from these forecasts for the euro area and the German economy. The objective of the joint diagnosis, which is commissioned by the Federal Finance Ministry, is to produce a uniform evaluation by all participating institutes. The results are published twice a year as spring and fall forecasts.

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

12.2015 ‐ 12.2016

Conference “How Can We Boost Competition in the Services Sector?”

European Commission

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

07.2016 ‐ 06.2018

Joint Economic Forecast

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)

The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating the overall economic situation and development in Germany, the euro area and the rest of the world. For this purpose, forecasts of economic activity are generated for the global economy and its major regions. Economic policy recommendations are derived from these forecasts for the euro area and the German economy. The objective of the joint diagnosis, which is commissioned by the Federal Finance Ministry, is to produce a uniform evaluation by all participating institutes. The results are published twice a year as spring and fall forecasts.

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

01.2013 ‐ 12.2016

Flash Estimate of the Quarterly GDP in Germany

Verlagsgruppe Handelsblatt

Dr Katja Heinisch

09.2015 ‐ 03.2016

Messung der Elastizität der veranlagten Einkommensteuer in Relation zu den Unternehmens- und Vermögenseinkommen

Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF)

Dr Götz Zeddies

01.2012 ‐ 12.2015

Quarterly Report on the Economy in Saxony-Anhalt

Ministry of Economy, Science and Digitalisation of the State of Sachsen-Anhalt

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Business Cycle Forecasts and Stress Scenarios

Volkswagen Financial Services AG

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

01.2013 ‐ 12.2015

Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009

Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF)

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Refereed Publications

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Multidimensional Well-being and Regional Disparities in Europe

Jörg Döpke Andreas Knabe Cornelia Lang Philip Maschke

in: Journal of Common Market Studies, No. 5, 2017

Abstract

Using data from the OECD Regional Well-Being Index – a set of quality-of-life indicators measured at the sub-national level – we construct a set of composite well-being indices. We analyze the extent to which the choice of five alternative aggregation methods affects the well-being ranking of regions. We find that regional inequality in these composite measures is lower than regional inequality in real GDP per capita. For most aggregation methods, the rank correlation across regions appears to be quite high. It is also shown that using alternative indices instead of GDP per capita would only have a small effect on the set of regions eligible for aid from EU Structural Funds. The exception appears to be an aggregation based on how individual dimensions relate to average life satisfaction across regions, which would substantially change both the ranking of regions and which regions would be eligible for EU funds.

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The Research Data Centre of the Halle Institute for Economic Research – Member of the Leibniz Association FDZ-IWH

Cornelia Lang Tim Kuttig

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, No. 2, 2017

Abstract

The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) was founded in 1992 and operates three research departments: Macroeconomics, Financial Markets, and Structural Change and Productivity. The IWH’s research structure is designed to foster close interplay between micro and macroeconomic research, however it has its roots in the empirical research conducted on the transition from a planned to a market economy, with a particular focus on East Germany.

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Alternatives to GDP - Measuring the Impact of Natural Disasters using Panel Data

Jörg Döpke Philip Maschke

in: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, No. 3, 2016

Abstract

A frequent criticism of GDP states that events that obviously reduce welfare of people can nevertheless increase GDP per capita. We use data of natural disasters as quasi experiments to examine whether alternatives to GDP (Human Development Index, Progress Index, Index of Economic Well-Being and a Happiness Index) lead to more plausible responses to disasters. Applying a Differences-in-Differences approach and estimates from various panels of countries we find no noteworthy differences between the response of real GDP per capita and the responses of suggested alternative welfare measures to a natural disaster except for the Human Development Index.

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Green Technologies as Industrial Policy Concept? The South of Saxony-Anhalt as a Case Example

Jörg Döpke Philip Maschke C. Altmann D. Bieräugel

in: List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, No. 1, 2015

Abstract

The federal action called Energiewende and the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) as part of it have produced hopes in Saxony-Anhalt which were particularly connected with the promotion of green technologies. This paper is composed of an impact analysis of subsidies in general and addresses the impacts of the EEG on companies. Therefore, results of a survey among companies are used that has been conducted in 2013 by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) Halle-Dessau in the south of the German State of Saxony-Anhalt.

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Are there Business Cycles “beyond GDP“? Alternative Measures to GDP at Business Cycle Frequencies

Jörg Döpke Philip Maschke

in: Applied Economics Quarterly, No. 2, 2015

Abstract

We discuss properties of alternatives or complements to GDP as a measure of welfare at business cycle frequencies. Our results imply that the suggested indicators show practically no cycle at all and their methodologies can be questioned. First, data are not available at an appropriate quality and frequency. Second, the suggested time series sometimes correlate negatively with each other. Third, cross-section and quasi-panel evidence based on different samples of countries reveals no impact of the stance of the business cycle on some suggested welfare measures. Therefore, alternative welfare measures do not show an equal picture on business cycle frequencies compared to GDP-based measures.

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Working Papers

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The Economic Development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990

Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2018

Abstract

This article describes the economic development of Saxony-Anhalt since 1990 in the context of the East German transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. In the early 1990s the economy of Saxony-Anhalt caught up quickly with West Germany, mainly because the capital stock was modernized and expanded. Convergence, however, has almost come to a halt for some time now and gross domestic product per employed person is still about 20% below the West German level. The challenge for economic policy is to further the catching-up process by fostering research and innovation and improving the skills of the workforce.

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Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf

Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult Götz Zeddies

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 5, 2018

Abstract

In the coalition agreement from February 7, 2018, the new German federal government drafts its public pension policy, which has to be evaluated against the background of demographic dynamics in Germany. From the year 2020 onwards, the age structure of the German population will change significantly. In this paper, the consequences of public pensions related policy measures from the coalition agreement for the German public pension insurance are illustrated using a simulation model. In the long run, the intended extensions of benefits would lead to an increase in the contribution rate to the German public pension insurance of about two and a half percentage points. Referring to pension systems of other countries, we discuss measures in order to limit this increase in the contribution rate.

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The Minimum Wage Effects on Skilled Crafts Sector in Saxony-Anhalt

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 31, 2017

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt. Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony- Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How have firms reacted to wage increase? We find that about 8% of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.

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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany

Oliver Holtemöller Felix Pohle

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 28, 2017

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the employment effects of minimum wages. We analysed the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015 exploiting cross-sectional variation of the minimum wage affectedness. We construct two variables that measure the affectedness for approximately 300 state-industry combinations based on aggregate monthly income data. The estimation strategy consists of two steps. We test for (unidentified) structural breaks in a model with cross-section specific trends to control for state-industry specific developments prior to 2015. In a second step, we test whether the trend deviations are correlated with the minimum wage affectedness. To identify the minimum wage effect on employment, we assume that the minimum wage introduction is exogenous. Our results point towards a negative effect on marginal employment and a positive effect on socially insured employment. Furthermore, we analyse if the increase in socially insured employment is systematically related to the reduction of marginal employment but do not detect evidence.

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Multidimensional Well-being and Regional Disparities in Europe

Jörg Döpke A. Knabe Cornelia Lang Philip Maschke

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 13, 2016
published in: Journal of Common Market Studies

Abstract

Using data from the OECD Regional Well-Being Index – a set of quality-of-life indicators measured at the sub-national level, we construct a set of composite well-being indices. We analyse the extent to which the choice of five alternative aggregation methods affects the well-being ranking of regions. We find that regional inequality in these composite measures is lower than regional inequality in gross-domestic product (GDP) per capita.

read publication
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