Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasts

The research group comprises all macroeconomic analyses, forecasts and policy papers that are carried out on a regular basis at the IWH. These reports contribute significantly to the IWH being one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. The group focuses on current macroeconomic perspectives in Germany. However, forecasts for an open economy like the German one have to start from thorough and up-to-date analysis of the world economy. Special attention is given to East Germany, Central European countries, and to the European Union as a whole.

Research in this group is linked closely to other projects within the cluster that focus on publishing research papers in refereed journals. In particular, econometric tools developed by Research Group Econometric Tools for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Simulation are applied for the macroeconomic projections, and policy conclusions derived by Research Group Monetary Aggregates, Asset Prices and Real Outcomes are important building blocks for policy recommendations.

IWH Data Project: IWH Macrometer: Macroeconomic Database for the German Länder, East and West Germany

All of the group’s macroeconomic analyses, forecasts and policy papers are available via the Current Forecasting section.

The IWH is member of AIECE (Association d'instituts européens de conjoncture économique).

Research Cluster
Economic Dynamics and Stability

Your contact

Dr Axel Lindner
Dr Axel Lindner
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-703

EXTERNAL FUNDING

07.2016 ‐ 06.2022

Joint Economic Forecast

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)

The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating the overall economic situation and development in Germany, the euro area and the rest of the world. For this purpose, forecasts of economic activity are generated for the global economy and its major regions. Economic policy recommendations are derived from these forecasts for the euro area and the German economy. The objective of the joint diagnosis, which is commissioned by the Federal Finance Ministry, is to produce a uniform evaluation by all participating institutes. The results are published twice a year as spring and fall forecasts.

see project's webpage

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

01.2013 ‐ 12.2018

Flash Estimate of the Quarterly GDP in Germany

Verlagsgruppe Handelsblatt

Dr Katja Heinisch

01.2018 ‐ 12.2021

Flash Estimate of the Quarterly GDP in Germany

WirtschaftsWoche

see project's webpage

Dr Katja Heinisch

12.2015 ‐ 12.2016

Conference “How Can We Boost Competition in the Services Sector?”

European Commission

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

07.2013 ‐ 06.2016

Joint Economic Forecast

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)

The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating the overall economic situation and development in Germany, the euro area and the rest of the world. For this purpose, forecasts of economic activity are generated for the global economy and its major regions. Economic policy recommendations are derived from these forecasts for the euro area and the German economy. The objective of the joint diagnosis, which is commissioned by the Federal Finance Ministry, is to produce a uniform evaluation by all participating institutes. The results are published twice a year as spring and fall forecasts.

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

09.2015 ‐ 03.2016

Messung der Elastizität der veranlagten Einkommensteuer in Relation zu den Unternehmens- und Vermögenseinkommen

Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF)

Dr Götz Zeddies

01.2013 ‐ 12.2015

Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009

Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF)

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

01.2012 ‐ 12.2015

Quarterly Report on the Economy in Saxony-Anhalt

Ministry of Economy, Science and Digitalisation of the State of Sachsen-Anhalt

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Business Cycle Forecasts and Stress Scenarios

Volkswagen Financial Services AG

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Refereed Publications

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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Journal of Economic Structures, No. 11, 2021

Abstract

We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.

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Structural Stability of the Research & Development Sector in European Economies Despite the Economic Crisis

Jutta Günther Maria Kristalova Udo Ludwig

in: Journal of Evolutionary Economics, No. 5, 2019

Abstract

When an external shock such as the economic crisis in 2008/2009 occurs, the interconnectedness of sectors can be affected. This paper investigates whether the R&D sector experienced changes in its sectoral integration through the recession. Based on an input-output analysis, it can be shown that the linkages of the R&D sector with other sectors remain stable. In some countries, the inter-sectoral integration becomes even stronger. Policy makers can be encouraged to use public R&D spending as a means of fiscal policy against an economic crisis.

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On the Risk of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Italy

Oliver Holtemöller Tobias Knedlik Axel Lindner

in: Intereconomics, No. 6, 2018

Abstract

The intention for the Italian government to stimulate business activity via large increases in government spending is not in line with the stabilisation of the public debt ratio. Instead, if such policy were implemented, the risk of a sovereign debt crisis would be high. In this article, we analyse the capacity of the Italian economy to shoulder sovereign debt under different scenarios. We conclude that focusing on growth enhancing structural reforms, would allow for moderate increases in public expenditure.

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Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf

Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult Götz Zeddies

in: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, No. 3, 2018

Abstract

In the coalition agreement from February 7, 2018, the new German federal government drafts its public pension policy, which has to be evaluated against the background of demographic dynamics in Germany. In this paper, the consequences of public pensions related policy measures for the German public pension insurance are illustrated using a simulation model. In the long run, the intended extensions of benefits would lead to an increase in the contribution rate to the German public pension insurance of about two and a half percentage points. Referring to pension systems of other countries, we discuss measures in order to limit this increase in the contribution rate.

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Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Handwerk in Sachsen-Anhalt

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Birgit Schultz

in: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, No. 2, 2018

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt. Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How did firms react to wage increase? We find that about 8 % of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.

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Working Papers

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