Monetary Aggregates, Asset Prices and Real Outcomes
Paying close attention to money, credit, and asset prices shall improve the IWH's macroeconomic policy work, especially in terms of forecasting macroeconomic developments and risks, but also in terms of assessing the stance of monetary policy. To this end, it is necessary to understand the relationship between monetary and financial developments, on the one hand, and macroeconomic dynamics and stability, on the other hand. Money and credit are important determinants of the macroeconomic performance of a market economy. Research in this group contributes to the literature on quantitative macroeconomic models to be applied for forecasting and policy analysis that incorporate monetary and financial aspects.
Research ClusterMacroeconomic Dynamics and Stability
01.2017 ‐ 12.2017
Effects of exchange rate changes on production and inflation
Impact of Personal Economic Environment and Personality Factors on Individual Financial Decision Making
in: Frontiers in Decision Neuroscience, No. 158, 2014
This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor “source of funding”: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors “agreeableness” and “openness” showed moderate to modest – but significant – effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.
Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries
in: Economics Bulletin, No. 1, 2014
While there has been much discussion of the role of liquidity in the recent financial crises, there has been little discussion of the use of macroeconomic aggregation techniques to measure total liquidity available to the market. In this paper, we provide an approximation of the liquidity development in six Euro area countries from 2003 to 2013. We show that properly measured monetary aggregates contain significant information about liquidity risk.
Note on the Hidden Risk of Inflation
in: Journal of Economic Policy Reform, No. 1, 2014
The continued expansionary policy of the Federal Reserve gives rise to speculation whether the Fed will be able to maintain price stability in the coming decades. Most of the scientific work relating money to prices relies on broad monetary aggregates (i.e. M2 for the United States). In our paper, we argue that this view falls short. The historically unique monetary expansion has not yet fully reached M2. Using a cointegration approach, we aim to show the hidden risks for the future development of M2 and correspondingly prices. In a simulation analysis we show that even if the multiplier remains substantially below its pre-crisis level, M2 will exceed its current growth path with a probability of 95%.
Reconciling Narrative Monetary Policy Disturbances with Structural VAR Model Shocks?
in: Economics Letters, No. 2, 2013
Structural VAR studies disagree with narrative accounts about the history of monetary policy disturbances. We investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shocks as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We find that it does not.
Explosive Preisentwicklung und spekulative Blasen auf Rohstoffmärkten
in: ORDO, No. 64, 2013
This paper analyzes whether price developments on commodity markets support the hypothesis that commodity prices are subject to speculative behavior in certain time periods. This is an important research question within the ongoing debate on the regulation of commodity trading. It can be shown that commodity prices occasionally exhibit explosive behavior. In particular, this is found for raw industrials, but also for foodstuff. An important implication is that the reasons and the effects on consumers and investors of bubbles on commodity markets have to be investigated in greater detail. Additionally, the distributional effects of these findings should be analyzed in future research.
Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 26, 2020
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates monetary policy transmission to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices. A subcategorical analysis shows that the muted transmission is the most pronounced in the adoption of FinTech payment and credit, compared to that of insurance. The regulatory arbitrage and competition between FinTech and banks are the possible mechanisms leading a mitigated monetary policy transmission.
Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilisation
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2020
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilisation policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplication between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilisation tools than hawkish inflation targeting.
Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2020
We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of exchange rate changes increases. Making use of this heteroskedasticity, we estimate that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline in prices and output, while a positive information shock appreciates the dollar, decreases prices and the excess bond premium, and increases output.
The Evolution of Monetary Policy in Latin American Economies: Responsiveness to Inflation under Different Degrees of Credibility
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2020
This paper investigates the forward-lookingness of monetary policy related to stabilising inflation over time under different degrees of central bank credibility in the four largest Latin American economies, which experienced a different transition path to the full-fledged inflation targeting regime. The analysis is based on an interest rate-based hybrid monetary policy rule with time-varying coefficients, which captures possible shifts from a backward-looking to a forward-looking monetary policy rule related to inflation stabilisation. The main results show that monetary policy is fully forward-looking and exclusively reacts to expected inflation under nearly perfect central bank credibility. Under a partially credible central bank, monetary policy is both backward-looking and forward-looking in terms of stabilising inflation. Moreover, monetary authorities put increasingly more priority on stabilising expected inflation relative to actual inflation if central bank credibility tends to improve over time.
Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle
in: CEPR Discussion Papers 13690, 2019
We propose a resolution of the missing deflation puzzle. Our resolution stresses the importance of nonlinearities in price- and wage-setting when the economy is exposed to large shocks. We show that a nonlinear macroeconomic model with real rigidities resolves the missing deflation puzzle, while a linearized version of the same underlying nonlinear model fails to do so. In addition, our nonlinear model reproduces the skewness of inflation and other macroeconomic variables observed in post-war U.S. data. All told, our results caution against the common practice of using linearized models to study inflation and output dynamics.