Monetary Aggregates, Asset Prices and Real Outcomes

Paying close attention to money, credit, and asset prices shall improve the IWH's macroeconomic policy work, especially in terms of forecasting macroeconomic developments and risks, but also in terms of assessing the stance of monetary policy. To this end, it is necessary to understand the relationship between monetary and financial developments, on the one hand, and macroeconomic dynamics and stability, on the other hand. Money and credit are important determinants of the macroeconomic performance of a market economy. Research in this group contributes to the literature on quantitative macroeconomic models to be applied for forecasting and policy analysis that incorporate monetary and financial aspects.

Research Cluster
Macroeconomic Dynamics and Stability

Your contact

Professor Boreum Kwak, PhD
Professor Boreum Kwak, PhD
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-851

EXTERNAL FUNDING

01.2017 ‐ 12.2017

Effects of exchange rate changes on production and inflation

Deutsche Bundesbank

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Refereed Publications

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Inflation and Relative Price Variability in the Euro Area: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model

Dieter Nautz Juliane Scharff

in: Applied Economics, No. 4, 2012

Abstract

The impact of inflation on Relative Price Variability (RPV) generates an important channel for real effects of inflation. This article provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and RPV in the euro area. Stirred by the widespread use of inflation caps or target bands in monetary policy practice, we are particularly interested in threshold effects of inflation. In line with the predictions of monetary search models, our results indicate that expected inflation significantly increases RPV only if inflation is either very low (below 0.95% per annum (p.a.)) or very high (above 4.96% p.a.).

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Central Banks, Trade Unions and Reputation – Is there Room for an Expansionist Manoeuvre in the European Union?

Toralf Pusch A. Heise

in: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2010

Abstract

It is now a few years since the introduction of the common currency, and Europe is still experiencing high unemployment. The conventional logic attributes this problem to flaws in the labour market. In this article we look at the changes that occur if labour unions and the Central Bank have different options to choose from in a climate of uncertainty. In a single-stage game the most probable outcome is a high unemployment rate. Results change dramatically if the game is repeated. However, this effect does not occur if the Central Bank puts a too high weight on price stability. Secondly, if the trade unions do not possess the capability for coordinating and moderating their wage claims, a full employment equilibrium is out of range.

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Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzkrise

Makram El-Shagi C. Ilgmann

in: ORDO, 2010

Abstract

Im vorliegenden Papier wird die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtungen zwischen Aktiengesellschaften (bzw. Kapitalgesellschaften im Allgemeinen) für die gegenwärtige Finanzmarktkrise herausgearbeitet. Durch den wechselseitigen Besitz von Firmen untereinander ist eine Situation entstanden, in denen bestellte Manager sich lediglich kontrollieren. Durch entstehende Abhängigkeiten und die innerhalb der verhältnismäßig kleinen Gruppe von Topmanagern mögliche implizite Koordination konnten Vorstände über die Entlohnungs- und damit auch über die Anreizsysteme, denen sie ausgesetzt sind, wesentlich mitentscheiden. Dies hat, wie gezeigt wird, erheblich zur Entstehung von Anreizsystemen beigetragen, die sich im Kern an kurzfristigen Erfolgen orientieren. Da insbesondere in der Finanzintermediation kurz- und langfristige Gewinnoptimierung durch die starke Korrelation von Risiko und Gewinnmöglichkeiten einem starken Trade- off unterliegen, haben diese Anreizsysteme wiederum eine erhebliche Rolle in der verfehlten Risikopolitik der Banken gespielt, die ein wesentliche Ursache der Krise war.

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A Simple Macro Model of Original Sin based on Optimal Price Setting under Incomplete Information

Axel Lindner

in: International Economics and Economic Policy, 2009

Abstract

This paper analyses the consequences of “original sin“ (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot be used to borrow abroad) for macroeconomic stability. The approach is based on third-generation models of currency crises, but differs from alternative versions by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and there is incomplete information about the future exchange rate. It is shown that a small depreciation is beneficial, but a large one is detrimental.

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Evaluating Communication Strategies for Public Agencies: Transparency, Opacity, and Secrecy

Axel Lindner

in: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2009

Abstract

This paper analyses in a simple global games framework welfare effects stemming from different communication strategies of public agencies if strategies of agents are complementary to each other: Communication can either be fully transparent, or the agency opaquely publishes only its overall assessment of the economy, or it keeps information completely secret. It is shown that private agents put more weight on their private information in the transparent case than in the case of opacity. Thus, in many cases, the appropriate measure against overreliance on public information is giving more details to the public instead of denying access to public information.

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Working Papers

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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission

Iftekhar Hasan Boreum Kwak Xiang Li

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 26, 2020

Abstract

This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates monetary policy transmission to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices. A subcategorical analysis shows that the muted transmission is the most pronounced in the adoption of FinTech payment and credit, compared to that of insurance. The regulatory arbitrage and competition between FinTech and banks are the possible mechanisms leading a mitigated monetary policy transmission.

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Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilisation

Markus Kirchner Malte Rieth

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2020

Abstract

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilisation policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplication between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilisation tools than hawkish inflation targeting.

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Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy

Oliver Holtemöller Alexander Kriwoluzky Boreum Kwak

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2020

Abstract

We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of exchange rate changes increases. Making use of this heteroskedasticity, we estimate that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline in prices and output, while a positive information shock appreciates the dollar, decreases prices and the excess bond premium, and increases output.

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The Evolution of Monetary Policy in Latin American Economies: Responsiveness to Inflation under Different Degrees of Credibility

Stefan Gießler

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2020

Abstract

This paper investigates the forward-lookingness of monetary policy related to stabilising inflation over time under different degrees of central bank credibility in the four largest Latin American economies, which experienced a different transition path to the full-fledged inflation targeting regime. The analysis is based on an interest rate-based hybrid monetary policy rule with time-varying coefficients, which captures possible shifts from a backward-looking to a forward-looking monetary policy rule related to inflation stabilisation. The main results show that monetary policy is fully forward-looking and exclusively reacts to expected inflation under nearly perfect central bank credibility. Under a partially credible central bank, monetary policy is both backward-looking and forward-looking in terms of stabilising inflation. Moreover, monetary authorities put increasingly more priority on stabilising expected inflation relative to actual inflation if central bank credibility tends to improve over time.

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Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?

Lawrence J. Christiano Martin S. Eichenbaum Mathias Trabandt

in: NBER Working Paper No. 26723, 2020

Abstract

We argue that wage inertia plays a pivotal role in allowing empirically plausible variants of the standard search and matching model to account for the large countercyclical response of unemployment to shocks.

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