Neuere Anwendungsfelder der Input-Output-Analyse – Tagungsband – Beiträge zum Halleschen Input-Output-Workshop 2004
Udo Ludwig
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
2004
Abstract
Der Band umfasst die aktualisierte Fassung aller Vorträge, die auf dem zweiten Input-Output-Workshop am Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle gehalten worden sind.
Der erste Teil erstreckt sich auf neue Arbeiten zu gesamtwirtschaftlichen Input-Output-Tabellen. Hier wird der Stand der Forschungen zur nachträglichen Berechnung einer Input-Output-Tabelle für das Deutsche Reich im Jahr 1936 berichtet. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit gilt der Bereinigung der zeitgenössischen Fachstatistiken um militärpolitische Einflüsse. Außerdem werden die Fortschritte der sozioökonomischen Input-Output-Rechnung präsentiert. Das Augenmerk richtet sich auf die Zeitverwendung verschiedener Altersklassen und die Ungleichgewichte zwischen geleisteter und empfangener Zeit.
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New fields of application for the input-output analysis in Germany - Contributions to the Input-Output Workshop 2002 in Halle
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 4,
2003
Abstract
Centrepiece of the discussion is the employment-orientated evaluation of large scale Investments. The analysis is based on the static open Input-Output-Model. For both, industrial as well as construction projects, the direct and indirect employment effects at the construction as well as the utilization stage are being estimated and combined with the multiplier effect caused by the created income. Finally, the discussion concludes by evaluating the employment effects of the necessary reconstruction efforts after the flood in summer 2002.
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Regional Differentiation in East Germany: The Economic Situation of East German Districts at the Border to Lower Saxony
Rupert Kawka, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
The article deals with the question whether the counties in Sachsen-Anhalt being located along the border to Niedersachsen benefit from the vicinity to an economically stronger state so that regional development is better there than in other parts of Sachsen-Anhalt. It is shown that despite certain weaknesses concerning input factors, the output indicators show better results than the state´s average. Furthermore, the article focusses on the strong East-West commuter flows and on the preference of companies from Niedersachsen to invest in this region.
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The flood disaster and GDP in Germany
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2002
Abstract
The flood at Elbe, Danube and their tributary streams destroyed billion Euros worth of Capital Stock. GDP, though, does not include Capital Stock, but production. On the basis of plausible assumptions the production interruptions caused by the flood are estimated for Germany and the most severely affected areas of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. Considering the “set-aside” funds for restoration and with the help of the Input-Output-Model the direct effects on production and employment within the different economic sectors are being calculated. The results are compared with the foregone consumption due to the delayed next step of the tax reform. On balance clear effects can be observed in construction.
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Risk Potential for Financial Crises for the Central and East European Transition Countries still high
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
Since the mid-nineties there have been several financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe. Among the countries affected are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania - all countries with which the European Union is in the midst of accession negotiations. The prevention of financial crises is also important due to the output losses which occurr in the affected countries. Additionally, contagion effects can influence the economic situation in third countries such as those of the EU. For this reason, the IWH analyses on a regular basis the risk potential of the EU-accession countries as well as for Turkey and Russia.
Since the beginning of 1999 at least two different phases in the development of the risk potential can be distinguished for the majority of the Central and Eastern European countries. The first phase is marked by an increase in the risk potential across all countries in the region because of the contagion and spill-over effects following the Russian financial crisis in August 1998. The risk potential was considerably reduced with the phasing out of these effects and a worldwide economic recovery. However, since mid-2000 a second phase has set in. The weaker international environment has again led to a sizable increase in the crisis vulnerability of several countries, where a host of signals indicate an urgent need for economic policy actions.
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Economic Development in Saxony-Anhalt: empirical results and policy recommendations
Franz Barjak, Peter Franz, Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2001
Abstract
Though the basic economic problems are still of the same kind all over East Germany, partially considerable regional differences exist in respect to the conditions for further economic development. Therefore, detailed empirical analyses for the individual Länder and their sub-regions are necessary making economic policy recommendations. The following contribution deals with this task taking Saxony-Anhalt as an example.
A multitude of indicators is used to bring out the specific strengths and weaknesses of the economy of this state (Land) and its sub-regions. The outstanding strength of Saxony-Anhalt are the high private investment outlays which served to build a modern capital stock during the past ten years. Another fundamental strength of the Land are the universities and public research institutions. Besides these unambiguous strengths some ‘ambivalent’ growth factors exist which are characterized by strengths as well as by weaknesses. Such ‘ambivalent’ growth factors are the infrastructure and the situation of important sectors and branches of economic activity. The weaknesses of Saxony-Anhalt’s economic structure find expression especially in its low supply with human capital and entrepreneurial initiative as well as in the few research and development efforts of its firms.
The aforementioned strengths of the Land are reflected insufficiently in its economic output. Consequently some economic policy measures are proposed to bring about an improvement: Amongst other things Saxony-Anhalt should develop a clear idea of its economic development (Leitbild). Such a Leitbild could be related to the Land’s strengths or to the elimination of its major weaknesses. This also would facilitate a concentrated use of the different economic policy instruments. The latter shouldn’t only be concentrated on singular economic growth factors but also spatially, on the economically stronger sub-regions, as this can lead to larger growth effects for the entire Land. The good provision with public research institutions in Saxony-Anhalt should be used to bring about an improvement of the economic structure to a larger extent than until now. This could be done for example by means of a further strengthening of applied research vs. basic research, possibly via orienting the public research more towards the existing branches of economic activity. Finally, the Land should intensify its efforts to increase the entrepreneurial initiative in Saxony-Anhalt, e. g. by means of introducing courses in economics in its schools.
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Smaller productivity gap between German regions with different producer prices taken into account
Gerald Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 89,
1999
Abstract
Der Vergleich von 300 Erzeugerpreisen zeigt, dass vergleichbare Produkte in Ostdeutschland etwa 20 Prozent preiswerter sind als in Westdeutschland. Durch die Verwendung von Regressionsschätzungen lässt sich ein Konfidenzintervall für diesen Wert berechnen. Weitere Rechnungen mit Hilfe von Input-Output-Tabellen zeigen, dass auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene rechnerisch etwa zehn Prozentpunkte der Produktivitätslücke auf die niedrigeren Erzeugerpreise zurückzuführen sind.
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Import percentage of private consumption in Germany in the 1990s
Ruth Grunert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
1999
Abstract
Mit Hilfe der Input-Output-Rechnung wird der Importgehalt des privaten Konsums für Deutschland ermittelt. Neben den Direktimporten von Konsumgütern wird ein beachtlicher Teil an importierten Vorleistung für den privaten Konsum benötigt. Letztlich fließt rund ein Viertel der Nachfrage der privaten Haushalte in Waren und Dienstleistungen, deren Produktionsstätten nicht in Deutschland liegen.
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State and development of municipal investment budgets in the New Länder considering business infrastructures; Experts report ordered by the Federal Economics Ministry
Martin Snelting, Christian Schumacher, Walter Komar, Peter Franz
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
1998
Abstract
In der Studie werden die Entwicklung und Bestimmungsgründe kommunaler Investiti-onshaushalte in den neuen Ländern untersucht. Angebotsbezogene ökonometrische Schätzungen zeigen, dass kommunale Infrastrukturinvestitionen die Produktivität der ostdeutschen Unternehmen positiv beeinflusst haben. Simulationen mit einem Input-Output-Modell weisen zudem positive Nachfrageeffekte für Produktion und Beschäfti-gung aus, deren Dauerhaftigkeit aber vorsichtig zu bewerten ist. Auf der Basis von Be-fragungen und weitergehender Analysen werden aktuelle Infrastrukturdefizite aufge-zeigt sowie Empfehlungen für die künftige Infrastrukturpolitik unterbreitet.
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East Germany's economic dependence on the construction sector relaxes
Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
1998
Abstract
Das Wachstum der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft wurde in den Aufbaujahren vom Aufschwung des Bausektors geprägt, dabei bildeten sich überdurchschnittlich kräftige und enge Verflechtungen aller anderen Produktionsbereiche zum Baugewerbe heraus. Mit fortschreitender Entwicklung sind im Unterschied zur Anfangsphase die Wirtschaftsstrukturen erstarkt, die Wachstumsimpulse aus baufernen Bereichen und von überregionalen Märkten erhalten. Damit lockert sich die Abhängigkeit der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft vom Baugeschehen in der Region. Der empirische Nachweis wurde mit dem offenen statischen Input-Output-Modell geführt.
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