Macroeconomic Modelling of the German Economy in the Framework of Euroland
Rüdiger Pohl, Heinz P. Galler
Schriften des IWH,
No. 11,
2002
Abstract
An attempt to develop a new macroeconometric model for Germany is confronted with several questions that range from the general rationality of such an approach to specific problems of an appropriate model structure. One important aspect of this discussion is the introduction of the Euro as a common currency of the European monetary union. This institutional change may result in structural breaks due to changing behavior of economic agents. In addition, the definition of the spatial unit that is appropriate for modelling becomes a problem. Additional problems come from the introduction of the European Single Market and the increasing international economic integration not only within the European union but also beyond its borders. And in the case of Germany, the unification of the West and the East demand special attention. Last but not least, the harmonization of national accounting for the member states of the European Union has to be dealt with. Thus, the introduction of the Euro as a common currency is just one problem besides others that must be addressed.
Read article
IWH-Industry Survey at the start of 2002: Cautious confidence in East German industry despite economic downturn
Bärbel Laschke
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2002
Abstract
The cyclical downturn in the German economy in the year 2001 braked also the turnover of the East German industry. The increase was with 6,5 % clearly under the result of the previous year. Therefor the profitability of the enterprises continued to improve not. It could be stabilized however on the achieved level. The turnover plans of the enterprises for 2002 are reserved. Nevertheless 60% of the enterprises will increase their turnover. Also the job plans are optimistic and the job supply will slightly grow.
Read article
Network activities and the productivity gap in East Germany: The role of agglomeration advantages
Anita Wölfl, Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2001
Abstract
The article presents first some theoretical considerations about the connection between productivity and networking activities of enterprises. By operationalizing networks as an agglomeration of firms in a specific region, it is argued with respect to the East German economy that such networks have not yet developped in a sufficiently matter. Additionally, a “critical“ degree of agglomeration, from which networking activities lead to higher productivity, is missing in nearly all East German regions.
Read article
Germany: Cyclical Improvement not Until the End of the Year
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2001
Abstract
During the second quarter of 2001 German overall production stagnated. Weak global development muddied the economic prospects of firms and prevented them from rising their output and their investment activities. In 2001 gross national product will only increase by 1%; the number of unemployed will be higher than expected. Nevertheless, we advise against an increase in public expenditure that aims at stimulating the economy. Anyhow, growing public deficits, caused by cyclical movements, should be accepted. In order to increase employment labour market reforms become more urgent.
In East Germany, currently even a decline in gross national product cannot be excluded. After the first period of restructuring, which has been accompanied by structural problems, cyclical movements become more important. In addition, economic stagnation burdens labour markets. Nonetheless trying to stimulate the East German economy by government spending programmes does not seem to be a viable strategy. From the cyclical point of view they are not very efficient and concerning structural problems they are no solution.
Read article
Lagging Productivity in the East German Economy: Obstacles to Fast Convergence
Joachim Ragnitz
External Publications,
2001
Abstract
Read article
The international and German economic situation in spring 2001
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2001
Abstract
Beurteilung der Wirtschaftslage durch folgende Mitglieder der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute e.V., Essen:
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin; Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv, Hamburg; ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München; Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel; Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle; Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen
Read article
East German Manufacturing: Strongly differentiated if branches and firms are distinguished
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2001
Abstract
The East German manufacturing sector is characterized by a strong differentiation that cannot be seen in aggregate figures. On the basis of highly disaggregated figures that distinguishes by branches and firms as well it is shown that neither in decreasing industries (like the clothing industry) all firms are faced with a decline in production nor in growing industries (like fine mechanics) all establishments can really participate in growth. It is argued that there is still an intensive selection process in the East German economy that will help to reach a higher level of competitiveness.
Read article
Housing Vacancies in East German Cities: A Problem not only for Housing Policy
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2001
Abstract
In numerous East German cities extreme imbalances in the housing
market have developed with the consequence of extensive housing vacancies. Primarily inner city housing units constructed in the late 19th and early 20th century and housing units constructed within the period of the socialist regime are concerned. The causes for these imbalances can be found in decisions of socialist urban planning, in demographic
factors, in oversized federal promotion of new housing construction after the German unification, and in income increases of private households. The commission “Structural Change in the Housing Economy of the New Länder“, installed by the federal government, has examined this problem and submitted preliminary political recommendations on the federal level in order to reduce the housing market imbalances. The commission recommends federal subsidies for tearing off vacant housing units within a period of ten years. A measure like this raises the question how the risk can be handled that too many flats are torn down. In addition, the commission recommends to double the subsidies for households acquiring already existing flats for own use and to halve the subsidies for households investing in newly built owner-occupied housing in East Germany. These incentives to acquire existing housing units might prove too weak because of the strong preferences of East German households to live in single-family houses. Measures on the federal level can support but cannot replace necessary concrete planning and solution strategies in the vacancy-plagued cities “in situ“.
Read article
The international and German economic situation in fall 2000
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 14,
2000
Abstract
Beurteilung der Wirtschaftslage durch folgende Mitglieder der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute e.V., Essen:
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin; Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv, Hamburg; ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München; Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel; Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle; Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen
Read article
East German economy 2000 and 2001: Further growth in overall production despite new slump in construction industry
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2000
Abstract
For the first time the main economic indicators for East Germany are presented in terms of the New European System of National Accounts (ESA)up to 1999. Insights are given into the sectoral composition of gross domestic product and employment. The article presents forecasts for 2000 und 2001 for the sectors “manufacturing“, “construction“ and “services“.
Read article