Optimale Geld- und Währungspolitik in Südafrika – Modellierung und Schätzung
Tobias Knedlik
Berichte der Internationalen Wissenschaftliche Vereinigung Weltwirtschaft und Weltpolitik e.V. Vol. 15,
No. 161,
2005
Abstract
THE AIM OF THIS PAPER is to combine the estimation of the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) with the theoretic modelling of monetary policy rules for open and emerging market economies using the example of South Africa. The idea that monetary policy is not only interested in optimal monetary conditions but also in external stability, constitutes the basis for the analysis. This idea emerged from studying currency crises that are caused by inadequate monetary policy and in particular from the experience of the Asian crisis of 1997/98 and its worldwide spread also to South Africa. The Monetary Conditions Index is a potentially useful tool for the development of monetary policy rules.
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Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Japan: An Agency-based Approach
Diemo Dietrich
Incentives and Economic Behaviour,
2005
Abstract
This paper studies the incentive effects on Japanese banks of a low interest rate policy by the Bank of Japan. It utilizes a simplified version of an overlapping principal-agent-style model of corporate finance originally developed in Dietrich (2003). This model is dedicated to study the monetary policy transmission mechanism by combining arguments of the broad credit channel and the bank lending channel taking into account that banks need to be provided with incentives to monitor entrepreneurs. We argue that stipulating banks to possess some amount of own capital generate these incentives. We denote this capital requirement to be market based and show that this requirement depends crucially on interest rates. After revealing some shortcomings of the credit crunch hypothesis, we apply this approach to the Japanese economy. As a result, a policy of very low interest rates may not only be inefficient but counterproductive to reactivate a stumbled economy via the usual credit channel.
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Economic forecast 2005: German economy gradually accelerating
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2005
Abstract
In der Weltwirtschaft wirken die geldpolitischen
Rahmenbedingungen weiterhin anregend. Die
Ertragslage der Unternehmen ist gut – mit ein
Grund für die recht positive Entwicklung an den
Aktienmärkten in Amerika und in Europa. Die
Voraussetzungen für die Fortsetzung des weltwirtschaftlichen
Aufschwungs sind von dieser Seite
günstig, wenngleich die Unsicherheiten über die
künftige Entwicklung von Ölpreis und Dollarwert
geblieben sind...
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Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Claudia M. Buch, J. Doepke, C. Pierdzioch
German Economic Review,
2004
Abstract
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ‘good luck’.
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IWH forecast of economic activity: Lack of investment slows growth of domestic demand in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2004
Abstract
Das Statistische Bundesamt hat seine ersten Berechnungen zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt und zu seinen Komponenten für das zweite Quartal 2004 vorgelegt und die bisherigen Ergebnisse für die zurückliegenden Vierteljahre überarbeitet – Anlass für eine Überprüfung der Konjunkturprognose des IWH. Laut amtlicher Neuberechnung für die ersten drei Monate des Jahres fiel die konjunkturelle Spaltung zwischen Auslands- und Inlandsnachfrage in Deutschland noch deutlicher aus als ursprünglich gemeldet, und diese Schere hat sich in den Monaten April bis Juni nicht verringert. Die Anpassung der Prognosewerte für das zweite Halbjahr, die dominiert wird von einer Aufwärtskorrektur des außenwirtschaftlichen Beitrags zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion, hat eine Erhöhung der Wachstumsprognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für dieses Jahr von 1,8% auf 2% zur Folge. Im Zuge der Verlangsamung des weltwirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs wird der konjunkturelle Impuls aus dem Ausland im weiteren Verlauf dieses und des nächsten Jahres an Stärke verlieren. Dafür gewinnt die Inlandsnachfrage wieder etwas an Schwung. Voraussetzung ist, dass die Unternehmen ihre Investitionszurückhaltung aufgeben und die über die Außenwirtschaft erzielten Gewinne in den Wirtschaftskreislauf zurückführen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird 2005 um 1,8% höher als in diesem Jahr sein. Ohne Arbeitstageeffekt ergibt sich infolge des – wenn auch nur zögerlichen – Übergreifens der Konjunktur auf die Binnennachfrage ein Anstieg um 2%, nach 1,5% in diesem Jahr.
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A Monetary Vector Error Correction Model of the Euro Area and Implications for Monetary Policy
Oliver Holtemöller
Empirical Economics,
No. 3,
2004
Abstract
In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.
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Germany after stagnation: Slow stimulation of overall economy by export driven recovery
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2004
Abstract
The main centres of the recovery in this business cycle remain in the US and East Asia. Amid the fading stimuli from economic policy, the US economy loses some of its momentum and GDP will increase by 4.5% in 2004 followed by 3.5% in the coming year. In the euro area, the vibrant external trade more and more spills over into the domestic economy. Still, with 1.5% this year and 2% in 2005, GDP will clearly underperform in comparison to the growth centres of the world. In Germany, even more so than in the euro area, the revival depends on the world economy. Exports will maintain their strong upward trend and in their wake, demand for consumer as well as capital goods will start to increase. But increases in consumption will remain small this year and it will be 2005 before clear improvements can be observed. After stagnating in 2003, GDP will rise by 1.8% both this and next year.
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Monetary Policy and Private Sector Development. The Case of South Africa
Tobias Knedlik
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, No. 9,
No. 9,
2004
Abstract
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The MCI as a Monetary Policy Guide in a Small, Open Emerging Market Economy
Philippe Burger, Tobias Knedlik
South African Journal of Economics,
No. 72,
2004
Abstract
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IWH Economic Outlook 2004: No longer waiting for the economic upturn
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2004
Abstract
The Economic Outlook 2004 updates the IWH forecast for 2004 and gives a first outlook on 2005. The world recovery is mainly driven by the strong economic impulses from the USA. Whereas the upturn in the US is domestically driven, the impetus in the euro area is coming from external trade. Nonetheless in Germany corporate investment activity still is slow. Although the tax reductions in 2004 will support private consumption, its overall economic impulse will be weak. German GDP in 2004 will increase 1.6% and 1.8% in 2005. At the labour market no clear improvement can be expected till the second half of 2004; on a yearly average employment will decrease by 100 000 persons in 2004. Albeit the partly broad forward third instalment of the tax reform, fiscal policy will have a restrictive aim. Monetary policy on the other hand will continue to be highly expansive, but as the output gap shrinks the ECB can be expected to increase interest rates moderately.
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