Exploring the Economic Convergence in the EU New Member States by Using Nonparametric Models
Monica Raileanu Szeles
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
This paper analyzes the process of real economic convergence in the New Member States (NMS) bein g formerly centrally planned economies, using nonparametric methods instead of conventional parametric measurement tools like beta and sigma models. This methodological framework allows the examining of the relative income distribution in different periods of time, the number of modes of the density distribution, the existence of “convergence clubs” in the distribution and the hypothesis of convergence at a single point in time. The modality tests (e.g. the ASH-WARPing procedure) and stochastic kernel are nonparametric techniques used in the empirical part of the study to examine the income distribution in the NMS area. Additionally, random effects panel regressions are used, but only for comparison reasons. The main findings of the paper are the bimodality of the income density distribution over time and across countries, and the presence of convergence clubs in the income distribution from 1995 to 2008. The findings suggest a lack of absolute convergence in the long term (1995-2008) and also when looking only from 2003 onwards. The paper concludes that, in comparison with the parametrical approach, the nonparametric one gives a deeper, real and richer perspective on the process of real convergence in the NMS area.
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Economic Structure and Regional Performance in Germany, 2002-2007
Alexander Kubis, Matthias Brachert, Mirko Titze
European Planning Studies,
No. 2,
2012
Abstract
This paper explores the impact of industrial clusters on regional growth at the German labour market region level using a regional convergence model. Based on the results of an exploratory study of the geography of German industrial clusters, we are able to differentiate the impact of industrial clustering from a horizontal and a vertical perspective while taking regional convergence into consideration. The results indicate that in addition to an all-German process of convergence, a specific East German one can be identified. The different types of industrial clusters show mixed effects within this framework. While vertically isolated industrial clusters have a negative impact on regional growth in this period, positive growth effects can be identified when industrial clusters show an intra-regional vertical interconnectedness.
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Macroeconomic Challenges in the Euro Area and the Acceding Countries
Katja Drechsel
Dissertation, Online-Publikation,
2010
Abstract
The conduct of effective economic policy faces a multiplicity of macroeconomic challenges, which requires a wide scope of theoretical and empirical analyses. With a focus on the European Union, this doctoral dissertation consists of two parts which make empirical and methodological contributions to the literature on forecasting real economic activity and on the analysis of business cycles in a boom-bust framework in the light of the EMU enlargement. In the first part, we tackle the problem of publication lags and analyse the role of the information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A huge dataset of monthly indicators is used to estimate simple bridge equations. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We find that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. In the second part, we focus on the potential accession of the new EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe to the euro area. In contrast to the discussion of Optimum Currency Areas, we follow a non-standard approach for the discussion on abandonment of national currencies the boom-bust theory. We analyse whether evidence for boom-bust cycles is given and draw conclusions whether these countries should join the EMU in the near future. Using a broad range of data sets and empirical methods we document credit market imperfections, comprising asymmetric financing opportunities across sectors, excess foreign currency liabilities and contract enforceability problems both at macro and micro level. Furthermore, we depart from the standard analysis of comovements of business cycles among countries and rather consider long-run and short-run comovements across sectors. While the results differ across countries, we find evidence for credit market imperfections in Central and Eastern Europe and different sectoral reactions to shocks. This gives favour for the assessment of the potential euro accession using this supplementary, non-standard approach.
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Investment Grants: Which Requirements Should be Fulfilled?
Mirko Titze, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2010
Abstract
Since the year 1969 the German government has applied investment grants to improve regional economic development of disadvantaged regions. The support of eligible firms shall enhance its investment activities. Such activities may force a sustainable development of the respective region. One requirement – amongst others – for the grant of this investment support scheme is the firm’s verification of supra-regional sales. The gains resulting from the firms’ export activities lead to additional income for that region, and this stimulates multiplicative (reinforcing) regional income processes. Since the German reunification this instrument has been applied in the new federal states, too. Due to the fact that structural deficits still exist in East Germany investment grants are adopted primarily in the new federal states. Today, some policy decision makers think that the catching-up process of disadvantaged regions is not fast enough. Against this background, the further application of investment grants is discussed controversially. Some criticism tends to the criterion of supra-regional sales. It has been argued that particularly small firms are excluded from this support scheme. However, small firms are considered as key players for regional economic activities. Moreover, firms which are highly integrated in international markets depend on world trade cycles and that might be risky for the respective region. Finally, critics believe that regional actors should be boosted in order to strengthen regional identities in terms of regional buyer-supplier-networks. This article shows that policy decision makers should maintain the criterion of supra-regional sales. Particularly, regions with a loss of inhabitants need gains from supra-regional sales to stabilise their local purchasing power. Otherwise, these regions are strongly dependent on transfer flows stemming from other regions. Beyond that, supra-regional sales indicate the firm’s international competitiveness. Finally, the most important argument for supra-regional sale might be linkages to supra-regional knowledge flows which strongly affect the region’s innovative capabilities.
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State Aid in the Enlarged European Union. An Overview
Jens Hölscher, Nicole Nulsch, Johannes Stephan
Abstract
In the early phase of transition that started with the 1990s, Central and Eastern European Countries pursued economic restructuring of the enterprise sector that involved massive injections of state support. Also foreign investment from the West and facilitation of the development of a market economy involved massive injections of state support. With their accession to the European Union (EU), levels and forms of state aid came under critical review by the European Commission. This inquiry investigates whether the integration of the new member states operates on a level playing field with respect to state aid. Quantitative and qualitative analysis is relied upon to answer this key, as well as other, related questions. Findings suggest that in recent years a level playing field across the EU has indeed emerged. State aid in the new EU member countries is rather handled more strictly than laxer compared to the ‘old’ EU countries.
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Governmental Learning as a Determinant of Economic Growth
Marina Grusevaja
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 23,
2010
Abstract
Systemic economic transition is a process of determined radical institutional change, a process of building new institutions required by a market economy. Nowadays, the experience of transition countries with the implementation of new institutions could be reviewed as a method of economic development that despite similar singular steps has different effects on the domestic economic performance. The process of institutional change towards a market economy is determined by political will, thus the government plays an important role in carrying out the economic reforms. Among the variety of outcomes and effects the attention is drawn especially to economic growth that diverges significantly in different post-transition countries. The paper attempts to shed light upon the problem on the basis of institutional economics, of economics of innovation and partially of political economy of growth using an evolutionary, process-oriented perspective. In this context the issue central to the promotion of economic growth is the successful implementation of new institutions through governmental activities. The paper shows that under the conditions of bounded rationality and radical uncertainty economic growth is determined, inter alia, by the capacity for governmental learning.
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The Russian System of Cities from the Perspective of New Economic Geography
Albrecht Kauffmann
Potsdamer Schriften zur Raumwirtschaft, Bd. 2,
2010
Abstract
The rise in energy prices may result in long-lasting rise in costs of freight transports. Which effects do rising freight transport costs have for the development of urban systems? Such rise of transport costs in real terms has happened in Russia after price liberalisation in 1992. At the same time, the Russian official demographic statistics provides data that can be used to test hypotheses concerning the development of urban systems affected by rising transport costs. In the present study, these data are comprehensively evaluated. The theoretical background is provided by modelling of a linear shaped urban system in the framework of New Economic Geography. By means of this tool, analysis can be applied to spacious urban systems with large transport distances. For the first time, the underlying theoretical approach is explained in detail. The empirical results provide evidence for the outcomes of the theoretical model: In spacious countries or regions, respectively, whose urban systems are drawn-out on long lines, rising costs of freight transport are conducive to tendencies of concentration of population in large cities in the centre of the system, while peripheral regions are increasingly disconnected.
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How Does Industry Specialization Affect the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Annals of Regional Science,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the specialization of a region in certain industries and the efficiency of the region in generating new knowledge. The efficiency measure is constructed by relating regional R&D input and output. An inversely u-shaped relationship is found between regional specialization and R&D efficiency, indicating the presence of externalities of both Marshall and Jacobs’ type. Further factors influencing efficiency are externalities resulting from high R&D intensity of the local private sector as well as knowledge from local public research institutions. The impact of both the specialization and the additional factors is, however, different for regions at different efficiency levels.
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Human Capital in a regional Comparison of East and West Germany: Catching up of the New Laender
Maike Irrek
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2010
Abstract
The endowment with human capital is not only a factor that strongly influences the region’s current economical potential, but also has a considerable effect on its future economical potential, i.o.w. economic growth. Human capital describes the employable peoples’ skills and their personal knowledge, which can be used in the production of goods and services as well as in the further development of them.
The public debate about East Germany’s economic development is referring to this crucial relation when exposing the problems of the medium-term development of the supply of professionals or the firm’s research- and development intensity. For a better assessment of the situation on the aggregation level of the New Laender this article attempts to estimate the human capital endowment and its evolution over time in comparison to West Germany.
The average human capital of the employed persons and the labour force potential is estimated by means of the earned income for East and West Germany separately. As a result the average human capital of the employed persons can be shown to have risen slightly from 1995 to 2004 in East Germany while there is nearly no increase in West Germany. This may be considered as a catching-up process, without already having led to equalization.
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