A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy
Christian Dreger
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 181,
2003
Abstract
In this paper a structural macroeconometric model for the Eurozone is presented. In opposite to the multi country modelling approach, the model relies on aggregate data on the supra-national level. Due to nonstationarity, all equations are estimated in an error correction form. The cointegrating relations are derived jointly with the short-run dynamics, avoiding the finite sample bias of the two step Engle Granger procedure. The validity of the aggregated approach is confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts and two simulation exercises. In particular the implications of a lower economic recovery in the US and a shock in the nominal Euro area interest rate are discussed.
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Municipal companies in Germany: turnover, employment, fields of operation
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2003
Abstract
Despite the ongoing political and scientific discussion about justification and extent of municipal economic activities, neither official statistics nor surveys of associations or research institutes provide valid data concerning the importance of local public enterprises. The IWH has carried out an analysis of different statistical sources which tries to fill the gap for municipal enterprises and yields the following results: Turnover- and employment shares of (big) companies with municipal shareholding are rather small in Germany. Nevertheless, such enterprises dominate within certain branches (e.g. public utilities) and their importance for the regional economy is particularly in Eastern Germany above-average.
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Opportunities and Risks for Regional Development in Former East German Brown Coal Mining Areas: The Case of the “Geiseltal” Mining Area in Saxony-Anhalt
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2003
Abstract
The rehabilitation of former brown coal open mining locations represents an important section of the economic and ecological restructuring process in East Germany, taking place since 1990. The recent progress in rehabilitation has led to large amounts of newly disposable space and thus expands the opportunities for regional development, especially with respect to tourism. But the possible positive effects are at risk because of diverse obstacles. In the case of the former open mining location of the “Geiseltal” in the south of Saxony-Anhalt such obstacles show up in form of a strong identification of the residents with the tradition of mining industry, in form of the expansive interests of nature protection organizations, and in form of inadequate organisational structures of the local public administration. In the case of a tourism-oriented development strategy risks arise concerning the actual duration of the remaining recultivation process and concerning the competition with locations with similar development targets.
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A Study of the Competitiveness of Regions based on a Cluster Analysis: The Example of East Germany
Franz Kronthaler
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 179,
2003
Abstract
This paper examines whether some East German regions have already achieved the same economic capability as the regions in West Germany, so that they are on a competitive basis with the West German regions and are able to reach the same economic level in the long run. If this is not the case, it is important to know more about the reasons for the economic weakness of the East German regions twelve years after unification.
The study is based on a cluster analysis. Criteria for the cluster formation are several economic indicators, which provide information about the economic capability of regions. The choice of the indicators is based on a review of results of the theoretical and empirical literature on the new growth theory and new economic geography.
The results show that most of the East German regions have not yet reached the economic capability and competitiveness of their West German counterparts so that they - from the viewpoint of the new growth theory and the new economic geography - are not in the position to reach the same economic level. According to these theories economic disadvantages are most notably the consequences of less technical progress, a lack of entrepreneurship and fewer business concentration. Under these points it is especially noteworthy that young well educated people leave these East German regions so that human capital might will turn into a bottle-neck in the near future. Only a few regions in East Germany - those with important agglomerations - are comparable to West German regions that are characterised by average capability and competitiveness, but not to those with above average economic capability and competitiveness. Even those more advanced East German regions still suffer from a slower technical progress.
There are important policy implications based on these results: regional policy in East Germany was not able to assist raising all regions to a sufficient level of competitiveness. It may be more effective to concentrate the regional policy efforts on a selection of important agglomerations. This has also strong implications for the EU regional policy assuming that the accession countries will have similar problems in catching up to the economic level of the EU as have the East German regions.
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Local conditions for the New Economy in structurally weak areas: The Example of Saxony-Anhalt
Walter Komar
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2003
Abstract
The paper presents the main results of an analysis of the regional conditions for the New Economy in Saxonia-Anhalt, i. e. for the sectors of modern biotechnology and modern information technology. Therefore, the regional conditions in Saxonia-Anhalt and the Raumordungsregion (ROR) Munich are compared. Latter region is one of the most advanced areas in Germany with regard to the two sectors under consideration. As expected, the ROR Munich shows better results in most aspects. Nevertheless, an important result is that even in less economically advanced regions modern biotechnology and modern information technology have chances for a good economic performance. Therfore, these regions must use better their existing potentials and eliminate their still existing regional deficits.
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Die New Economic Geography - besser als ihr Ruf
Rupert Kawka
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie,
2003
Abstract
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The Olympic Games raise hopes for regional development policy: Economic effects of the infrastructure investments planned for the Olympic Games in 2012 in Leipzig
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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Economic outlook for the Euro area 2003
Christian Dreger, Axel Lindner, Udo Ludwig, Klaus Weyerstraß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
This article reports the spring forecast of the economic development in the Eurozone, which was carried out within the European Forecasting Network. A modest rise in GDP growth from 1.2% in 2003 up to 2.1% in 2004 is expected. The current weakness in the growth experience is caused by structural factors to a large extent. In particular, labor markets are not flexible enough in most countries.
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EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
No. 106,
2003
Abstract
This paper analyses key issues of structural change and specialization patterns in the economies of an enlarged European Union. In all transition countries we observe a shift from the agricultural and industrial sector towards the service sector in terms of employment and productivity; however, in some countries a reindustrialisation drives is observed in a late transition stage. While some countries namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia and Slovenia, have improved their productivity especially in medium-technology-intensive industries and may advance on the technological ladder, others remain unchanged and seem to get locked in labour-intensive industrial sectors. In the context of EU-enlargement, we expect trade creation – going along with a rise of intra-industry trade – and higher FDI-activities. Countries will have to adjust along the logic of comparative advantage, however, technological upgrading and human capital formation are fields in which government can stimulate the direction of comparative advantage. According to the Gerschenkron-hypothesis the accession countries have an “advantage of backwardness. Since accession countries have a low R&D-GDP ratio in the early transition stage rising government expenditures on research and development plus higher education is crucial. We expect the EU-15 countries in general to benefit from enlargement but gains will be asymmetric across countries: economic geography matters. Austria, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Italy and France are likely to profit more than the other members of EU-15. Germany and Austria additionally play a particularly crucial role as origins of FDI. Future research should focus on the speed and the scope of structural adjustment.
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Regional economic effects of hosting the Olympic Games 2012 in Leipzig and its partner towns - An analysis of infrastructure investments
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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