The Standing of the East German Cities within the German System of Cities: An Interim Review on the Basis of Economic Indicators 20 Years after the German Unification
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
20 Jahre Deutsche Einheit - Teil 1 -
2009
Abstract
The hopes of the East German citizens coupled with the unification in 1990 were not only directed to their personal fortune, but also concerned the amelioration of the living conditions in their cities. Twenty years after this date, we can strike an interim balance how far these hopes have been become true. For this purpose, the thirteen largest East German cities (without Berlin) are compared to cities of similar size in three West German regions (South, North, Center represented by North Rhine/Westphalia). The indicators chosen rely to the cities’ economic and fiscal conditions. The indicators paint a differentiated picture: The average income per capita in the East German cities is still lower than in the West German cities and unemployment rates are still above the West German level. With respect to future growth potential, the East German cities show a relatively good endowment with qualified human capital, with public universities and research institutions. In contrast to that, the small size of the firms and the small number of firm headquarters are unfavourable for a dynamic growth in the future. Another persistent difference between East and West is the low level of public revenues, which keeps the East German cities dependent on Federal grants. The city officials were successful in cutting payroll costs and reducing the number of civil servants. In spite of the diverse depicted economic problems still to be solved, the East German cities over the years have shown impressive endurance in catching-up.
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Investitionszuschüsse nur bei Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen? Schlussfolgerungen aus der Förderung eines Investitionsprojektes über die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe im Land Brandenburg
Mirko Titze
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik,
2009
Abstract
The Joint Task “For the Improvement of the Regional Economic Structure“ is one of the most important Instruments of the German regional policy. This instrument is applied in regions with strong structural problems and aims to reduce unemployment. The instruments institutional framework demands the creation of additional permanent posts. This paper explores that these requirements can provoke inefficient combinations of production factors. The reasons for that problem can be seen in market failures as well as political disappointments. The government of each federal state has an incentive to demand permanent posts as much as possible because public revenue can equal the government expenditures after a relative short time period due to employment and production effects. The institutional framework of the German financial equalization scheme between the federal states contributes to that problem too - the expenditures for subsidization can be balanced by perequations paid by the other federal states.
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Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
Bernd Aumann, Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 14,
2009
Abstract
This paper assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the
West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates, and production levels in the manufacturingsector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of reunified Germany, our approach is purely based upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing setup includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. In our analysis, we find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
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Ostdeutschlands Transformation seit 1990 im Spiegel wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Indikatoren
Ulrich Blum, Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch, Jutta Günther, Gerhard Heimpold, Cornelia Lang, Udo Ludwig, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Lutz Schneider
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
20 Jahre nach der „friedlichen Revolution“ und dem darauffolgenden Herstellen der staatlichen Einheit Deutschlands legt das IWH erneut eine Dokumentation der gesellschaftlichen, vor allen Dingen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vor. Ziel ist es, anhand von Zahlen, Schaubildern und Tabellen mit entsprechenden Erklärungen die Vielschichtigkeit des Wandels der Neuen Länder aufzuzeigen. Damit fällt auch die Bewertung differenziert aus: Es gibt eine weitgehend modernisierte Infrastruktur, das erste, was an „blühende Landschaften“ erinnern mag. Einige Unternehmen und Standorte konnten sich mit großem wirtschaftlichen Erfolg die Weltmarktführerschaft in wesentlichen Technologien sichern. Aber es gibt auch einen massiven Bevölkerungsverlust, sich entleerende Gebiete. Manche Städte und erhebliche Teile des ländlichen Raums suchen eine neue Aufgabe in der nationalen und internationalen Arbeitsteilung.
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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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German Economy Drawn into the World Recession
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
1. Sonderausgabe
2009
Abstract
In spring 2009, the world economy is in a deep recession. The intensification of the financial crisis in autumn has caused a sharp contraction of demand. The reaction of monetary and fiscal policy was substantial, but up to now (April 2009), it has not succeeded in restoring confidence of economic agents. Although some leading indicators point to a stabilization of production in the coming quarters, the downturn will not come to an end before next winter, because the financial crisis will continue to put strain on the real economy for some time to come.
The German economy is in its deepest recession since the foundation of the Federal Republic. Germany is particularly affected, because at the core of the economy is the production of those goods for that world demand has collapsed most: capital goods and high-quality consumer durables. While exports and private investment activity will continue to shrink this year (albeit at a slower rate), private consumption will be a stabilizing factor for some time, as will public investment activity in the second half of the year. Later in 2009 and in 2010, rising unemployment will depress consumption, while in this forecast, it is assumed that exports and investment slowly recover in 2010, because the financial turmoil will calm down.
For economic policy, a recapitalization of the banking sector should have priority. The ECB should lower its key interest rate to 0.5%. Given the sharply increasing fiscal deficits, a new, third fiscal program would be counterproductive. Only if monetary policy fails to stabilize the economy, further fiscal measures, coordinated at a European level, should be considered.
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Low Skill but High Volatility?
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2665,
2009
Abstract
Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access to financial markets than high-skilled workers. This limits their ability to smooth shocks to income intertemporally and to share risks across borders. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970 - 2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels has changed over time. We develop a stylized theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence, and we test the predictions of the model. Our results show that greater financial globalization and development increases the volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a dampening impact.
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Co-existence of Unemployment and Skilled Labour Shortage? Evidence from Thuringia
Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In the light of favourable business conditions during the previous years, business organizations have repeatedly cautioned about a skilled labour shortage that could constrain future development of enterprises. While shortages may be typical of phases of economic expansion, the skilled labour shortage might turn into a permanent phenomenon if one takes into account the shrinking of the working-age population. The demographic transition occurs at an especially rapid pace in Eastern Germany. At the same time, this region still exhibits high rates of chronic unemployment, which renders the possibility of a skilled labour shortage questionable.
We focus on the federal state of Thuringia and investigate two questions. Firstly, we evaluate to what extent occupation-specific bottlenecks exist both in Germany and in Thuringia, using a set of criteria based on official labour market statistics. We find evidence of high utilization of labour supply in technical and metalworking professions in Germany. In the majority of these occupations, the same is true for Thuringia. Hence, a high level of unemployment and skilled labour shortage may coexist, at least in a transition phase. Secondly, we investigate whether companies in Thuringia already expect problems when searching for skilled personnel in the near future. For this purpose, the IWH has conducted a survey among approximately 1 000 companies. It turns out that 61% of the interviewed companies anticipate such problems, with statistically significant differences with respect to the companies’ characteristics. In addition, we discuss selected policies that companies plan to implement in the field of human resource management when anticipating problems.
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