Estimation Uncertainty in Credit Risk Assessment: Comparison of Credit Risk Using Bootstrapping and an Asymptotic Approach
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
For credit risk assessment, probability of default and correlation have to be estimated simultaneously. However, these estimates are uncertain. To assess this uncertainty the literature has discussed the use of asymptotic confidence regions. This kind of region though needs a long credit history for exact assessment. An alternative method to generate a confidence region for a short credit history is bootstrapping. Hence, it could be more appropriate to assess estimation uncertainty with bootstrapping than with asymptotic methods if only a short credit history is available. Based on a simulation study, it is analyzed how many periods should be available for assessing credit risk – taking account of estimation uncertainty – if bootstrapping and a Wald confidence region shall achieve similar results. This article shows that more than 100 cycles have to be available for similar results.
Read article
Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
At the beginning of 2009, the major industrialized economies are in recession. The financial turmoil has developed into a crisis of confidence to and solvency of the financial sector, raising financing costs and lowering the value of assets for firms and households. Monetary and fiscal policies have reacted strongly, but they will not succeed in ending the recession until the financial sectors in the US and in Western Europe have stabilized. This forecast is made under the assumption that stabilization will start in the second half of 2009 because the continued protection of important financial institutions by governments will restore confidence – albeit at a low level – and because at this time, the fall of US-house prices will start to fade off.
The German economy is hit particularly hard, because the financial crisis depresses worldwide investment demand and the sectors producing investment goods are at the heart of the German economy. The recession will not end before the second half of 2009, and capacity utilization will decrease throughout the year. We expect a tentative revival to begin in a recovery of exports. While private investment will shrink markedly, consumption of private households and the government as well as public investment will dampen the downturn. GDP will shrink by 1.9% in Germany and in East Germany by 1.5% because this region is less dependent on exports.
Economic policy has to help restoring confidence, and this can only be achieved if it behaves in a consistent and predictable way.
Read article
Export Promotion Needs the Disclosure of Industrial Potentials – A Case Study for the Federal State of Thuringia
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose, Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2008
Abstract
In countries and regions with weak domestic markets, the orientation towards external markets plays an important rule. This applies even more for economies emerging from the transformation process from a state to a market economy with a small export sector and a continuous decline in the number of residents. The federal state Thuringia presents such an example. There is still a large gap in exports compared to Germany as a whole. The paper deals with the role of exports in economic development and economic measures to increase the export activities of small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) in Thuringia. The study is based on a survey among SMEs in Thuringia on the performance of exporters and non-exporters. One of the main findings shows that export promotion was important only for one among three exporting companies during the last three years. That speaks for the confidence of the firms in their own power. The most measures used to implement or advance export activities are participation in a fair, information sessions on foreign markets and two general instruments to support companies: investment and innovation stimulation. As a result, economic measures make sense, but it should not depend on the age or the size of a company. Besides, the support should not only be given by department of foreign trade, but also by other departments. Finally, especially newcomers should be supported to entry foreign markets.
Read article