Russia: Ongoing Strong Economic Growth Overshadowed by High Inflation
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
Russian economic growth in 2007 again was driven by strong private consumption and investment, grew by double-digit rates. The roles of budget expenditures and borrowing of private and state-owned firms from abroad in financing investments increased rapidly. Russian inflation climbed again; it was driven up by increases in food prices in line with rising food prices around the world. Inflation pressures had sharpened through more budget spending and scheduled rate increases for electricity and gas as well as for regulated prices for municipal services. Broad money supply (M2) rose rapidly because of strong foreign currency inflows, too. Central bank seeks to bring inflation under control by tightening monetary policy this year. That will somewhat dampen economic growth, but nevertheless GDP growth in the near future will remain at high levels.
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The German Upswing Takes a Break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
2. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
The world economy continues to expand healthily, but risks have increased during summer. The crisis of the housing sector in the US has deepened: A revaluation of mortgage backed assets has triggered turbulences on global financial markets. The institutes expect that financial markets will calm down during the coming months, but that the downswing in the US will slow the pace of the world economy. The economy in the euro area will, in addition, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro. The German economy is, in spite of a restrictive fiscal policy, in a robust upswing. Because wage setting and inflation continues to be moderate, there will be no need for a restrictive monetary policy. Thus the German economy will, due to slower demand from the US and higher costs of financing, lose momentum, but chances are good that the upswing will only take a break. In the coming year private consumption is expected to be the main contributor to growth, because wage incomes will expand strongly. Unemployment will continue to shrink, albeit at a smaller rate than during 2007. Fiscal policy will no longer be restrictive. Economic policy has improved the conditions for growth in Germany; there is, however, still much to do. Public finances have to be consolidated further, but at the same time, public investment has to be strengthened. This can be achieved if public consumptive expenditure growth is limited. The institutes suggest to increase public expenditure by 2% per annum over the cycle in nominal terms; this is, by less than by the trend growth rate of nominal GDP.
The institutes advise against a reversal of the recent labour market reforms. Instead, incentives for taking up jobs should be increased further.
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Demography and Consumption Structure in Germany
Harald Lehmann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 16,
2004
Abstract
The impacts of demographic changes on the consumption structure of private households are of high overall economic relevance. The qualitative composition of consumption entails to a high degree a certain branch structure and hence influences labor demand. The underlying projection shows that aging and shrinking of the german population have only minor effects on the consumption structure other than changes in income growth and distribution. Above all the expenditures for health will double but from a relative low level.
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A model of private households´ consumption expenditure on the basis of representative income and consumption statistics
Harald Lehmann
Schriften des IWH,
No. 16,
2004
Abstract
The accurate measurement of the level and composition of private consumption is one of the crucial tasks of official statistics. There are different ways of measurement that have to be compared and assessed. In the following, a comparison between a supplier side based and a consumers side based measurement (household budget surveys) shows, that the the later one still has some drawbacks. Additionally the household budget surveys are used for microeconometric consumption analysis. Recommendations, potentials and drawbacks will be worked out.
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Despite adjustments still specific East German consumption structure
Ruth Grunert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2000
Abstract
From 1991 to 1998 the structure of expenditure of East German households has changed. The largest increase was in spending on housing, health care, entertainment and personal equipment. Espenditure patterns of households in East and West Germany converged. However, differences still excists. For example the expenditure share of spending on housing in East Germany is clearly lower than in West Germany.
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