Growth in the East German manufacturing sector mainly due to companies higher competitiveness
Siegfried Beer, Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2002
Abstract
Since 1995, the manufacturing sector in East Germany has seen strong growth. This article aims at identifying the reasons for the dynamic development of production in this period. Though one major reason is the expansion of production capacities mainly in growth- and productivity-intensive sectors, an analysis of total factor productivity yields the result that improved competitiveness (presumably in yet existing firms) is even more important. Nevertheless, there are few industries where new establishments seem to play the major role.
Read article
Effects of accelerated extension of the East German traffic infrastructure - The example of the A 72 Chemnitz-Leipzig
Walter Komar, Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2002
Abstract
Growth and the productivity can be positively affected by the accelerated development of the infrastructure by regions. That was empirically proven by a study of the IWH. The example of the planned motorway BAB 72 Chemnitz-Leipzig shows that a prema-ture realization of the entire route will have important impulses for investments, em-ployment and turnover of firms.
Read article
Recent Developments and Risks in the Euro Area Banking Sector
Reint E. Gropp, Jukka M. Vesala
ECB Monthly Bulletin,
2002
Abstract
This article provides an overview of euro area banks’ exposure to risk and examines the effects of the cyclical downturn in 2001. It describes the extent to which euro area banks’ risk profile has changed as a result of recent structural developments, such as an increase in investment banking, mergers, securitisation and more sophisticated risk management techniques. The article stresses that the environment in which banks operated in 2001 was fairly complex due to the relatively weak economic performance of all major economies as well as the events of 11 September in the United States. It evaluates the effects of these adverse circumstances on banks’ stability and overall performance. The article provides bank balance sheet information as well as financial market prices, arguing that the latter may be useful when assessing the soundness of the banking sector in a forward-looking manner. It concludes with a review of the overall stability of euro area banks, pointing to robustness in the face of the adverse developments in 2001 and the somewhat improved forward-looking indicators of banks’ financial strength in early 2002.
Read article
Economic Development 2002 and 2003: Investments – The Achilles Heel of the Economy
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2002
Abstract
The Article analyses and forecasts the economic developments for the World and German in 2002 and 2003. During the winter 2001/2002 the World Economy was able to pull out of its trough. Nonetheless, the upswing did not reach investments and was mainly driven by consumption and exports in the USA and the remaining major economies, respectively. In the course of this and next year Investors will gradually regain their trust in the economy. The same will be the case for consumers in Germany and Europe. As a result a modest recovery on a wide front will develop. In the course of next year this recovery will start to weaken. In Germany, Wage Policy has retracted from its former moderate stance. Hence, although due to the improving economic conditions and the resulting slowed employment cuts by the end of 2002 as well as employment increases in 2003, the upswing on the labour market will not reach the dynamics of the 1999/2000 recovery. Fiscal Policy, caused by the need to consolidate the public budget, will be restrictive. Despite the low inflation risks, by the end of this year the ECB will have raised its major interest rate by 1/2 percentage point. Nonetheless, as interest rates in real terms will remain at relatively low levels a restrictive impact from the Monetary Policy in Germany and the Euro Area will is not expected. The most important Data for the World Economy and Germany are being stated in detailed tables.
Read article
Financial policy dominated by consolidation
Kristina vanDeuverden
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2002
Abstract
Submitting the Stability and Growth Pact European member states committed themselves to reduce their budget deficits. In spring this year the German fiscal position worsened more and more and it became obvious that the deficit target would – again – be missed. Despite the worsened starting point Germany affirmed to follow its original stability programme and to attain a budget “close to balance” by the year 2004. Thus, consolidation will have to be strengthened and the scope for fiscal policy narrows down.
If current fiscal policy is not sustainable, the necessity of consolidation is obvious. However, the mode of consolidation is controversial. The Stability and Growth Pact focuses on converging budget deficits close to balance. For this, short-term oriented consolidation dominates the more medium and long-term oriented aspects of fiscal policy. Generating economic conditions by fiscal policy is at least restricted, maybe temporarily impossible – and shortening the consolidation period increases its costs.
A forecast of the government’s financial development in the years 2002 to 2006 shows clearly that the restructuring of revenues and expenditure will show no progress. In particular, the lack of structural reforms will burden Germany’s fiscal situation in the medium-term oriented consolidation period. However: the political self-commitment this spring leaves no scope for alternatives, but to enforce the consolidation. Despite some efforts, the projection concludes that by the year 2004 the budget will show a deficit.
Read article
Consequences of EU enlargement for regional promotion measures in East Germany
Franz Kronthaler, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2002
Abstract
Consequences of EU enlargement for regional policy in East Germany EU enlargement will change the status of regions currently assisted by EU regional policy. A number of regions will probably lose their status as “Objective 1 Region” and will hence have to exist without EU regional policy funding. Furthermore it has to be assumed that the EU will additionally reduce the maximal permitted regional aid rate for investment in the same regions. Most regions in the East German Länder will be affected by these changes. A “phasing out” of such Objective 1 Regions could ease the adjustment pressures. In anticipating to the probable reduction of the regional aid rate for investment, the development of infrastructure should already today be intensified in order to alleviate locational disadvantages as far as possible.
Read article
Transport and Economic Development, (also in French: Transport et Développement Économique)
Ulrich Blum, Leonard Dudley
Transport and Economic Development,
2002
Abstract
Read article
Zur Entwicklung der Wirtschaft im Kreis und in der Stadt Gotha
Peter Franz
Stadtentwicklung Gotha 1990 - 2000,
2002
Abstract
Read article
Regional effects of infrastrukture investments on the New Länder
Walter Komar, Evelyn Krolopp, Joachim Ragnitz
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 2,
2002
Abstract
Given infrastructure deficiencies in eastern German states and concomitant
weak growth, the present volume analyzes the extent to which making
important infrastructure projects a priority could more quickly improve
local business conditions in eastern Germany. Although the Solidarity Pact
II makes funds available for infrastructure development, these funds are
allocated over a period of twenty years. This timeframe will not allow the
rapid improvement of local business conditions.
Read article