Moderate production and employment effects through rising crude oil prices – A simulation with the macroeconomic IWH model –
Christian Dreger
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2000
Abstract
In the article the impacts of a rise in oil prices on production and employment are examined. The impacts are carried out by simulation on the grounds of a macroeconometric model. Given various price developments, the effects on production and employment are less pronounced than those in previous crisis. In the worst case scenario, output losses are 0.4 percentage points of the overall growth rate of the economy.
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The international and German economic situation in fall 2000
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 14,
2000
Abstract
Beurteilung der Wirtschaftslage durch folgende Mitglieder der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute e.V., Essen:
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin; Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv, Hamburg; ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München; Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel; Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle; Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen
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Pension Reform in Hungary
Peter Gedeon
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 5,
2000
Abstract
In Hungary social policy reforms in general and the pension reform in particular followed the introduction of the institutions of market economy with a considerable time lag, if at all. Although it was clear from the outset that the communist welfare state could not be sustained, comprehensive institutional reforms in the pension or health care systems were not introduced in the first six years of the postsocialist transition. This uneasiness to reform the social security systems has to do with the contradicting constraints decision makers have to face in the process of systemic change.
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Financial crisis and problems yet to solve - Conference proceedings
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 6,
2000
Abstract
Since the beginning of 1997, a currency and/or banking crisis broke out in several transition countries (Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine). In 1995, Hungary avoided a financial crisis by adjusting properly her macroeconomic policies. Financial markets in transition countries are still small. They gain, however, more and more importance for the entire economy. Part of the countries mentioned are candidates for EU membership. They have to show their ability to stabilize their exchange rates and financial sectors. The fact that overcoming the financial crisis in Asia and Latin America required international assistance (e.g. IMF) underlines the political importance of strategies of preventing such crises in the EU's immediate neighborhood.
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Structural change, specialization patterns, and the productivity gap between Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2000
Abstract
The transition countries of Central East Europe exhibit significantly lower productivity levels than that of the average of the 15 European Union countries. Since the outset of transition, however, this gap has clearly narrowed.
Next to technological and organisational factors it is sectoral structures which play an important role for the development and level of national productivities: in most transition economies, structural change clearly contributed positively to productivity growth. Poland is an exception here, no significant effect of structural change between sectors and industrial branches on the growth of the national productivity level could be found. The low intensity of structural adjustment in Poland in particular in the agricultural sector corresponds with a decisive role played by the sectoral pattern of specialisation within the European division of labour as determinant of the productivity gap. Hungary and to some degree also Slovenia, the country with the lowest productivity gap, exhibit similar results. Only in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia remain negligible the explanatory powers of respective patterns of specialisation as productivity determinants.
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East German economy 2000 and 2001: Further growth in overall production despite new slump in construction industry
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2000
Abstract
For the first time the main economic indicators for East Germany are presented in terms of the New European System of National Accounts (ESA)up to 1999. Insights are given into the sectoral composition of gross domestic product and employment. The article presents forecasts for 2000 und 2001 for the sectors “manufacturing“, “construction“ and “services“.
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The sectoral development of East Germany's economy in view of the European system of macroeconomic accounting
Brigitte Loose, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2000
Abstract
Es werden die sektoralen Entstehungskomponenten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland im Zeitraum von 1991 bis 1999 nach der Umstellung auf das Europäische System Volkswirtschaftlicher Gesamtrechnungen analysiert. Für die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft ergibt sich ein völlig neues strukturelles Erscheinungsbild, das ausführlich begründet wird. Herausgearbeitet werden dabei vor allem der Wechsel zwischen den sektoralen Antriebskräften sowie die Entwicklung von Produktivität und Lohnstückkosten nach Wirtschaftsbereichen.
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Current trends - Coexistence of growth and shrinking processes in East German economy
Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2000
Abstract
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Current trends – Strong economic upswing in Euro area continues
Michael Seifert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2000
Abstract
Seit Anfang 1999 veröffentlicht das IWH im vierteljährlichen Abstand einen Frühindikator der Konjunkturentwicklung des Euroraums. Der Indikator, der neben den Auftragseingängen sowie Unternehmer- und Verbraucherumfragen auch die Zinsstruktur berücksichtigt, läuft der tatsächlichen Entwicklung (gegenwärtig approximiert mit Hilfe des Index der Industrieproduktion) um ungefähr ein Quartal voraus und ermöglicht eine Trendprognose der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität.
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Blood, Sweat, Tears: Rise and Decline of the East German Economy, 1949 – 1988
Ulrich Blum, Leonard Dudley
Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie und Statistik – Journal of Economics and Statistics,
2000
Abstract
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