Professor in Finance and Labor in conjunction with a position as Senior Research Advisor at the Department of Laws, Regulations and Factor Market
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Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
Christiane Baumeister, James D. Hamilton
Econometrica,
No. 5,
2015
Abstract
This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.
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Related Variety, Unrelated Variety and Regional Functions: A spatial panel approach
Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze
Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography,
2013
Abstract
The paper presents estimates for the impact of related variety, unrelated variety and the functions a region performs in the production process on regional employment growth in Germany. We argue that regions benefit from the existence of related activities that facilitate economic development. Thereby the sole reliance of the related and unrelated variety concept on standard industrial classifications (SIC) remains debatable. We offer estimations for establishing that conceptual progress can be made when the focus of analysis goes beyond solely considering industries. We develop an industry-function based approach of related and unrelated variety and test our hypothesis by the help of spatial panel approach. Our findings suggest that related variety as same as unrelated variety facilitate regional employment growth in Germany. However, the drivers behind these effects do differ. While the positive effect of related variety is driven by high degrees of relatedness in the regional “R&D” and “White-Collar”-functions, the effects of unrelated variety are spurred by “Blue Collar”-functions in this period.
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Related Variety, Unrelated Variety and Regional Functions: Identifying Sources of Regional Employment Growth in Germany from 2003 to 2008
Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze
Abstract
This article analyses how regional employment growth in Germany is affected by related variety, unrelated variety and the functions a region performs in the production process. Following the related variety literature, we argue that regions benefit from the existence of related activities that facilitate economic development. However, we argue that the sole reliance of related variety on standard industrial classifications remains debatable. Hence, we offer estimations for establishing that conceptual progress can indeed be made when a focus for analysis goes beyond solely considering industries. We develop an industry-function based approach of related and unrelated variety. Our findings suggest that related variety only in combination with a high functional specialization
of the region facilitates regional growth in Germany. Additionally, also unrelated
variety per se fails to wield influences affecting development of regions. It is rather unrelated, but functionally proximate variety in the groups “White Collar” and “Blue Collar Workers” positively affects regional employment growth.
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Metropolitan Area „Central Germany“: How Strong are the Commuting Flows between the Cities?
Albrecht Kauffmann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
The metropolitan area „Central Germany“ is an institutional agreement on co-operation between the bigger cities of the German Länder Saxonia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. It is one of now eleven “European Metropolitan Areas” acknowledged by the Conference of German Ministers for Spatial Planning. In the face of the multitude of cities and the large distances between the cities at the fringe and the geographical centre of the metropolitan area “Central Germany” should be regarded as a very special case. Another peculiarity is that the hinterland of the metropolitan area has not yet been delineated. The paper analyses the networking interrelations between the eleven cities on the basis of commuting flows. Additionally, proposals for the delimitation of this metropolitan area as a polycentric functional urban area are suggested for the first time. The investigation yields that network connectivity between the cities that have shaped the former metropolitan area “Halle/Leipzig-Saxonian Triangle”, as well as the Thuringian cities is much more intensive than the commuting flows between these subareas that are well connected from history. As a functional area, the metropolitan area “Central Germany” would have a very large hinterland, but its population density would be rather small, and it would interact only with the nearest regional centres. One can conclude that the preconditions for successful cooperation are better for adjacent cities which collaboration has already a long tradition.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2009
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.
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Ende der 'Gemischtwarenläden': Spezialisierung von Technologie- und Gründerzentren als Option kommunaler Wirtschaftsförderung
Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
2009
Abstract
In the context of policy measures that focus on the promotion of entrepreneurship and innovative start-ups on the level of cities and municipalities, since the beginning of the 21st century, there is an explicit tendency to establish a new type of business incubators and technology centers. These support facilities focus their support infrastructure and processes on firms from one specific sector and its particular needs. In Germany, since 1999, nearly one-third of all new business incubators opened with a sector-specific focus. Despite the continuously increasing importance of such specialized business incubators in local and regional development strategies, there is no analysis of these support facilities. On the basis of the key principles of business incubation functionality, supplemented by recent findings of incubator/ incubation research, this article investigates the evolution of this incubator concept in Germany, its regional distribution and describes the benefits to firms of being part of a specialized incubator. Moreover, this article details what are the general conditions and requirements for the long-term success of specialized business incubation initiatives.
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