In Focus: State is Winner of Recent German Upswing
Axel Lindner
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
In 2006 and 2007, production expanded briskly in Germany. Real disposable incomes of private households, however, were almost stagnant. This article sheds, with help of national accounts data, some light on the reasons for this discrepancy: By far the most important factor is that the share of the general government in the disposable income of the whole economy increased strongly. The share of corporations in the disposable income increased, too. Finally, the deflator for consumption rose by more than the deflator of GDP mainly because of the price hike for imported commodities and energy.
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Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions
Claudia M. Buch, J. Kleinert
World Economy,
forthcoming
Abstract
Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross-border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.
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Der lange Schatten des Sozialismus: Folgen für die Wirtschaftspolitik in Ostdeutschland
Ulrich Blum
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
2008
Abstract
East Germany’s economy growth was not able to close, over the last ten years, the lag against the West German economy. This paper inquires into the economic reasons, especially those that can be traced in history. It is shown that the exodus of elites from what was Central Germany started in the 1930s because of the persecution of the Jewish elites. During the period after the Second World War until the construction of the wall in 1961 especially young and qualified people left the Soviet Zone and later the G.D.R. Thus, the elites destroyed in the Third Reich and the Second World War could not be replaced exogenously. In the 1970s, an inadequate economic system destroyed the still existing industrial middle class which was an important base of productivity and helped to generate foreign income because of its export intensity to the Western countries. This generated a current account crisis which was only overcome by a loan from West Germany, the so-called “Strauß-Kredit”. In 1988, however, the fundamental problems again became visible and enforced a change of the economic system. The privatisation strategy by the Treuhand by and large did not sell or restitute enterprises but sold plants out of the fragmented combines. Today, the visible deficit in headquarter function is the most important single obstacle against growth and wealth in the New Lander. It can be expected that this will only disappear within a new technology cycle.
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Monetary Policy and Financial (In)stability: An Integrated Micro–Macro Approach
Ferre De Graeve, Thomas Kick, Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Stability,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
Evidence on central banks’ twin objective, monetary and financial stability, is scarce. We suggest an integrated micro–macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure financial stability directly at the bank level as the probability of distress. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard model for bank distress and a standard macroeconomic model. The advantage of this approach is to incorporate micro information, to allow for non-linearities and to permit general feedback effects between financial distress and the real economy. We base the analysis on German bank and macro data between 1995 and 2004. Our results confirm the existence of a trade-off between monetary and financial stability. An unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases the probability of distress. This effect disappears when neglecting microeffects and non-linearities, underlining their importance. Distress responses are largest for small cooperative banks, weak distress events, and at times when capitalization is low. An important policy implication is that the separation of financial supervision and monetary policy requires close collaboration among members in the European System of Central Banks and national bank supervisors.
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Die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung von Private Equity
Ulrich Blum
Private Equity. Beurteilungs- und Bewertungsverfahren von Kapitalbeteiligungsgesellschaften,
2008
Abstract
Private equity is a very specific institutional way of providing private capital to enterprises. The contribution inquires why it increased its economic importance and public visibility over the last years. The role of private capital within the framework of the innovation theory, transaction cost theory and the risk theory is assessed. Private equity is a specific way of organizing the procurement with private capital for enterprises in risky markets in order to efficiently reducing transaction costs. More and above, it is important for credible market-entry strategies. As most markets are incomplete and because of tax regulations which cannot be considered to be efficient under present conditions, the economic role of private equity has increased. The increase economic role, but also importance in the firm, necessitates a steering of enterprises along value-oriented objectives. As the “hype” has decreased in summer 2007, the article ends with an assessment of future prospects.
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Long-term Effects of Business Incubators: What Happens to Incubated Firms after they Have Graduated from the BIs?
Michael Schwartz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2008
Abstract
Many cities and municipalities devote considerable public resources to the establishment and operation of business incubators (BIs) to promote the survivability and the positive development of newly founded firms. In the context of incubator evaluations, survival is one of the most important performance indicators, and survival rates of incubated firms are frequently communicated to the public by local authorities to demonstrate the success of those policy initiatives. However, in most cases, these data refers to the initial incubation period. Little is known about survival or exit dynamics of incubated firms after they have graduated from the BIs. On the basis of a comprehensive research project concerned with the development of graduate firms from incubators in Dresden, Halle (Saale), Jena, Neubrandenburg and Rostock, this article not only investigates how many firms survive after leaving the incubator facilities, but also investigates if graduation causes an immediate negative effect on subsequent survivability. The results show that about one third of all graduate firms fail after leaving the incubator. Furthermore, it can be found that graduate firms from the BIs in Halle (Saale) and Neubrandenburg face a relatively high risk of business closure especially in the first years after the completion of the incubation period.
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Improving Hartz IV after the Decision of the Federal Constitutional Court
Joachim Wilde
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2008
Abstract
In 2005, the assistance for the long-term unemployed in Germany was restructured by the so-called „Hartz IV reform“. An important part of the reform was to replace the former different administrations by a single institution. However, in December 2007, the Federal Constitutional Court decided that the new institution is not consistent with the constitutional law of the Federal Republic of Germany. Thus, a reform of the institution or a change of the constitutional law is necessary.
Different reform ideas have been proposed. However, all of them only solve the juristic problem. Not one single reform tries to improve the system. Therefore, the article introduces a new concept of incentive ethics. It shows how the dependency on benefits can be left out by allocating so-called moral goods to the long-term unemployed. A first empirical result supports the concept. Pilot projects should be conducted to get more valid results.
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Beseitigung struktureller Defizite mit der Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“ – Ein Vergleich der Strategien in den neuen Bundesländern
Mirko Titze
Raumforschung und Raumordnung,
2008
Abstract
The Joint Task “For the Improvement of the Regional Economic Structure” is one of the most important instruments for the “Reconstruction East”. Herein the federal states have an extensive flexibility to define their own kind of industrial policy. Due to their structural deficits this paper is focused on the federal states in East-Germany. A decrease in the budget constrains the governments to improve efficiency of subsidies. However, there is one way to solve this problem: change unselective government aid to regional as well as sectoral government aid. This paper shows that there is no federal state, which has applied this kind of policy forcefully.
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Agenda 2010: Neues unter Deutschlands Himmel?
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
The paper analyzes to what extent the reform of the German social security and welfare system, known as the “Hartz-IV-Reforms” under the “Agenda 2010”, has been successful. It is shown that the integration of welfare and social security payments increased efficiency as did prior deregulations of the labor market. However, the implementation was partly inefficient due to a misalignment between crucial instruments and incentive structure of individuals. This led to unforeseen expenditures that partly continue until today. Due to this inefficiency, parts of the reform lost its political acceptance. Furthermore, the article shows that many of these reforms had already been prepared intellectually by selected think tanks in the 90ies. The reforms are consistent with a consensus among scholars regarding the ability of the modern state to protect citizens from individual life risks. Finally, the article discusses the future agenda with respect to other important economic policy instruments beyond the integration of welfare and social security such as incentive structure in the established taxation system.
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Parenting Benefit – A New Risk for Companies
Nicole Nulsch, Henry Dannenberg
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
One of the aims of the new parenting benefit – introduced by the German government in January 2007 – is to motivate fathers to take parental leave in order to take care of their young children. Until now, the effects of the parenting benefit have been discussed predominantly from the viewpoint of family policy. In contrast, this paper analyses how companies are affected by the new law. In 2007, the number of fathers who stayed at home to spend more time with their children increased significantly. More than half of the working applicants were already fathers. In the past, it was easy for companies to reduce their risk of losing an important employee due to the birth of a child as companies rather hired men than women. But this strategy will be less important in the future. It is expected that the risk-environment of companies will change because of a larger group of fathers taking parental leave. Such a changed risk-environment could increase the career opportunities of women and might reduce the gender wage gap. However, it is also expected that the overall risk of companies increases. Assumed that companies need equity to cover risks, an increase of the overall risk reduces investment opportunities if it is not possible to increase equity in the same way. This could influence the current economic development negatively.
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