Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
The paper investigates the existence of fiscal illusion in German municipalities with special focus on the revenues from local public enterprises. These shadow budgets tend to increase the misperception of municipal tax prices and seem to have been neglected in the literature. Therefore, an aggregated expenditure function has been estimated for all German independent cities applying an “integrated budget” approach, which means
that revenues and expenditures of the core budget and the local public enterprises are combined to one single municipal budget. The estimation results suggest that a higher relative share of local public enterprise revenues might increase total per capita spending as well as spending for non-obligatory municipal goods and services. Empirical evidence for other sources of fiscal illusion is mixed but some indications for debt illusion, renter illusion or the flypaper effect could be found.
Read article
Development of Economy and Public Budgets in the Medium Term
Kristina vanDeuverden, Rolf Scheufele
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
The paper presents a forecast of the medium term development in Germany. In the years 2010 until 2013, economic growth will come on average to 1½%, basically borne by foreign trade as well as domestic demand. Public budgets will worsen in the years 2009 until 2010 mainly due to the present downturn and the political measures taken in this context. During the years afterwards, public finances will start to recover slightly.
Read article
Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
At the beginning of 2009, the major industrialized economies are in recession. The financial turmoil has developed into a crisis of confidence to and solvency of the financial sector, raising financing costs and lowering the value of assets for firms and households. Monetary and fiscal policies have reacted strongly, but they will not succeed in ending the recession until the financial sectors in the US and in Western Europe have stabilized. This forecast is made under the assumption that stabilization will start in the second half of 2009 because the continued protection of important financial institutions by governments will restore confidence – albeit at a low level – and because at this time, the fall of US-house prices will start to fade off.
The German economy is hit particularly hard, because the financial crisis depresses worldwide investment demand and the sectors producing investment goods are at the heart of the German economy. The recession will not end before the second half of 2009, and capacity utilization will decrease throughout the year. We expect a tentative revival to begin in a recovery of exports. While private investment will shrink markedly, consumption of private households and the government as well as public investment will dampen the downturn. GDP will shrink by 1.9% in Germany and in East Germany by 1.5% because this region is less dependent on exports.
Economic policy has to help restoring confidence, and this can only be achieved if it behaves in a consistent and predictable way.
Read article
Economic Effects of the Halle Institute for Economic Research
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
The most important approach to assess the scholarly performance of an institute is to evaluate its academic output. Economic research institutes such as the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) furthermore are targeted at providing policy advice to public authorities. This adds an additional criterion, the ability to impact policy discussions in Germany and beyond.
A rarely discussed issue is the effect of an institute on the local economy. The IWH is located in a region of East Germany that is still catching up economically. Transformation problems are still very visible. In such an economic environment, the expenditures of an institute play an important role in stabilizing local demand. The analysis shows, by using input-output-methods, that the most important factor for the local economy is the demand stemming from wages earned by the employees of the institute. Especially the local area, where most of the staff lives, heavily benefits from this effect. Expenditures of about 4.6 million Euros which include the salaries of the staff of about 70 persons generates sufficient demand in the area to guarantee employment for another 35 persons. In addition, as crowding out of activities by additional demand is presently not an issue in East Germany, the taxes generated account for a considerable part of the budget.
Read article
Long-term Effects of Business Incubators: What Happens to Incubated Firms after they Have Graduated from the BIs?
Michael Schwartz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2008
Abstract
Many cities and municipalities devote considerable public resources to the establishment and operation of business incubators (BIs) to promote the survivability and the positive development of newly founded firms. In the context of incubator evaluations, survival is one of the most important performance indicators, and survival rates of incubated firms are frequently communicated to the public by local authorities to demonstrate the success of those policy initiatives. However, in most cases, these data refers to the initial incubation period. Little is known about survival or exit dynamics of incubated firms after they have graduated from the BIs. On the basis of a comprehensive research project concerned with the development of graduate firms from incubators in Dresden, Halle (Saale), Jena, Neubrandenburg and Rostock, this article not only investigates how many firms survive after leaving the incubator facilities, but also investigates if graduation causes an immediate negative effect on subsequent survivability. The results show that about one third of all graduate firms fail after leaving the incubator. Furthermore, it can be found that graduate firms from the BIs in Halle (Saale) and Neubrandenburg face a relatively high risk of business closure especially in the first years after the completion of the incubation period.
Read article
Business Cycle Forecast, Summer 2008: Price Hikes and Financial Crisis Cloud Growth Prospects
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
In the summer of 2008 the turmoil on financial markets and that on the markets for energy dim the prospects for the world economy. The acceleration of the oil price hike during the first half of the year has led to an increase in expected inflation and to higher interest rates on capital markets, while stock prices are going down. At the same time, the financial crisis is far from over, and banks in the US and in Western Europe continue in their efforts to consolidate their balance sheets. Thus, the expansion of credit supply will be scarcer in the next quarters. All this means that demand will slow in the developed economies during the next quarters. However, the massive fiscal stimulus will help the US economy to stabilize, and the world economy still benefits from the high growth dynamics in the emerging markets economies. All in all, the developed economies will not reach their potential growth rate before the second half of 2009. In Germany, the upswing comes to a temporary halt during summer of this year. Slowing foreign demand and the oil price hike induce firms to postpone investments, and private consumption, the soft spot of the upswing in Germany, is still sluggish due to high inflation rates that impair purchasing power. For the end of 2008, chances are good that growth in Germany accelerates again, because German exporters are still penetrating emerging markets as competitiveness does not diminish. All in all, the German economy will grow by 2.3% in 2008 (mainly due to the very high dynamics at the beginning of the year) and by 1.3% in 2009. A main risk of this forecast is that monetary policy fails in easing the high inflationary pressures. As to fiscal policy, efforts to reach sustainable public finances should not weaken.
Read article
Eastern German Economy: No Catching-up in 2008 and 2009
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
In the New Lander, growth of production is characterized by two diverging developments. On the one hand, the manufacturing sector has expanded strongly while the public service sector as well as the retail sectors has considerably damped economic activity. On the other hand, those firms primarily bound to local markets have gained hardly any momentum, whereas others have been stimulated by external markets in Western Germany and abroad. These differences are mainly due to weak local demand in the wake of a low purchasing power and an ongoing reduction in the population. At the same time, export-oriented firms in the manufacturing sector have benefited from strong external demand, and they will further benefit from it, although somewhat less owing to the slowing world economy. However, as East German exporting firms are less exposed to those countries where the ongoing crisis in the real estate and the financial sector has unfolded its dampening effects the most, they are also less prone to it. Accordingly, gross domestic product will increase by 1,7% this year and 0,8% in 2009. This translates into further improvements on labor markets. Registered unemployment will fall below one million. In particular, manufacturing firms and the private business service sector will increase their demand for labor.
Read article
Can Art Finance itself?
Sören Eisenbeiß, Niels Krap, Tobias Glufke
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
Until 2003, public savings in the art sector have been immense. But lately there has been a tendency of increasing public expenditures in this field. Nevertheless one has to ask if these allowances are required to sustain artistic and cultural life.
If, however, art cannot be financed by the contributions of their consumers, the question arises whether and to which extend the government should pay for it. In spring 2007, we realized a survey in cooperation with the “neue theater“ in Halle and the “Anhaltisches Theater Dessau“. Among other subjects, we asked the audience to evaluate the current ticket prices. As a result, we analyzed how these theatres could adjust their ticket prices in order to reduce the need of public subsidies. The conclusion of this survey is that the visitors are reacting rather weakly to moderate price increases. So it can be stated that the theatres could in fact boost their revenues by appropriately raising their ticket prices. Unfortunately, the resulting extra revenue is not sufficient to finance the performing arts without the help of public subsidies.
Finally, an additional argument for subsidizing art is that not only the customers benefit from it, but also the society as a whole because of so-called positive external effects.
Read article
On the Economics of Ex-Post Transfers in a Federal State: A Mechanism Design Approach
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, T. Kuhn
WWDP, 95,
No. 95,
2008
Abstract
As a common feature in many federal states grants-in aid are payed to jurisdictions ex post, i.e. after local policy measures have chosen. We show that the central government cannot offer grants ex ante in a federal states with informational asymmetries as well as inter-temporal commitment problems. Local governments’ incentives to provide public goods are distorted if they rely on federal grants-in-aid offered ex post. Furthermore it becomes obvious that local governments are apt to substitute tax revenue for higher grants-in-aid if relevant local data are unobservable for the central government. To which extend ex post transfers mitigate local governments’ incentives crucially depends on the information structure predominant in the federation.
Read article
Is a Centralisation of Local Governmental Structures an Appropriate Way to Ensure an Efficient Provision of Local Public Services? Findings from Case Studies in the State of Saxony-Anhalt
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Choosing the appropriate organisational model for local government (i. e. centralised vs. federal model) forms an essential challenge for local communities. Against the background of Fiscal Federalism, a trade-off between the two models mentioned can be expected: Though the centralised model may bring up economies of scale and scope, the federal form of local government may have advantages, too, for instance regarding the extent of civil participation. The article has the intention to answer the question how the degree of centralisation/decentralisation of local governmental organisation affects the provision of services of public interest. The article is based on case studies conducted in ten municipalities located in the State of Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. The government of Saxony-Anhalt intends to implement a reform project targeted at the modernisation of local governmental organisation. The basic reform idea is to transform the local governmental structures from a situation (at the beginning of 2008) where a co-existence of centralised and federally organised municipalities is given towards a future situation where the centralised model should be dominating. In line with the expectation derived from theory, the empirical findings do not draw a picture, which is unequivocally in favour either of the centralised or of the federal model. However, the reform of modernisation of local governmental organisation should remain on the agenda, especially due to a shrinking population in the rural parts of Saxony-Anhalt. This could support the state government’s plans of a more centralized organisation of local government. But this would mean to give up the advantages of the existing federal model of local government. Therefore, in addition to the centralised model favoured by the state government, politicians in Saxony-Anhalt should look for the possibility of an alternative “third” model, which tries to combine the advantages of economies of scale with a greater degree of civil participation.
Read article