12.01.2024 • 2/2024
Green transition and the debt brake: Implications of additional investment for public finances and private consumption in Germany
The German Climate Protection Act stipulates, among other things, that greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are to be reduced by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The green investments required to achieve this target are likely to amount to around 2.5% of gross domestic product each year. According to the medium-term projection of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), the associated additional government spending on public investment and support measures cannot be financed from projected tax revenues. It is therefore to be expected that the tax burden on households will increase and private consumption will be curbed accordingly, if both the current form of the debt brake and the greenhouse gas reduction targets are maintained.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
Fiscal Policy under the Eyes of Wary Bondholders
Ruben Staffa, Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 26,
2023
Abstract
This paper studies the interaction between fiscal policy and bondholders against the backdrop of high sovereign debt levels. For our analysis, we investigate the case of Italy, a country that has dealt with high public debt levels for a long time, using a Bayesian structural VAR model. We extend a canonical three variable macro mode to include a bond market, consisting of a fiscal rule and a bond demand schedule for long-term government bonds. To identify the model in the presence of political uncertainty and forward-looking investors, we derive an external instrument for bond demand shocks from a novel news ticker data set. Our main results are threefold. First, the interaction between fiscal policy and bondholders’ expectations is critical for the evolution of prices. Fiscal policy reinforces contractionary monetary policy through sustained increases in primary surpluses and investors provide incentives for “passive” fiscal policy. Second, investors’ expectations matter for inflation, and we document a Fisherian response of inflation across all maturities in response to a bond demand shock. Third, domestic politics is critical in the determination of bondholders’ expectations and an increase in the perceived riskiness of sovereign debt increases inflation and thus complicates the task of controlling price growth.
Read article
IWH Bankruptcy Research
IWH Bankruptcy Research The Bankruptcy Research Unit of the Halle Institute for...
See page
Homepage
Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards According to Germany’s five...
See page
Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one...
See page
Professor in Finance and Labor in conjunction with a position as Senior Research Advisor at the Department of Laws, Regulations and Factor Market
Vacancy Professor in Finance and Labor in conjunction with a...
See page
Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one...
See page
Joint Economic Forecast
Joint Economic Forecast The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating...
See page
Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany
Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany The state has the ability...
See page
Financial Stability
Financial Systems: The Anatomy of the Market Economy How the financial system is...
See page