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EFN Report Spring 2012: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013
, 2012
Abstract
In the first months of 2012 there were some mild signs of improvement in the world economy, to a large degree due to political measures taken in the euro area at the end of 2011. In particular, the ECB secured financing of banks by offering liquidity for as longs as three years and by easing standards for collateral. However, the southern countries of the euro area will stay in recession for most of the year 2012: planned fiscal consolidation in Spain and Italy has a magnitude of about 3% relative to GDP, in Portugal and Greece the restriction is even larger. The structural reforms need time to take beneficial effects, and the real sector is largely out of reach of the expansive monetary policy.
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EFN Report Winter 2011/12: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2012 and 2013
, 2011
Abstract
At the end of 2011, prospects for the world are clouded. The main cause for concern is that the euro area crisis of confidence has not reached its peak yet. It is doubtful whether Italian and Spanish debt service would be sustainable if yields stay at these levels for long. Even more critical are the financing conditions for European banks whose standing crucially depends on the valuation of the sovereign bonds they own. This uncertainty will continue inducing firms and households to postpone decisions on spending and investment, and fiscal policy will dampen demand further. Besides, financial conditions are also bound to deteriorate in most member countries. Moreover, weak demand from advanced economies is dampening the expansion in exportoriented emerging markets countries (in East-Asia, but also in Latin America). As a consequence, both our forecasts for the euro area exports and industrial production have been revised downwards.
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EFN Report Autumn 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012
, 2011
Abstract
High growth dynamics and demand coming from emerging markets will slow only modestly in the rest of 2011 and in 2012, but the intensification of the financial turmoil and the doubts about the ability of the European Union to contain the consequences of possible defaults will hamper world economic growth considerably in our forecasting horizon. For the euro area, we expect GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, not enough to bring the unemployment rate back below 10% and substantially less for 2012 than in our Summer report. Many private households and firms will adopt a wait-and-see attitude while, to restore confidence in the euro area sovereign debt, fiscal policy will become even more restrictive.
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EFN Report Summer 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012
, 2011
Abstract
The worldwide upswing has lost momentum, but it will overcome the present slowdown. Monetary policy is overall still accommodative, and growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging market countries. For the euro area, we expect GDP to grow by around 1.9% in 2011 and 1.7% in 2012, not enough to bring the unemployment rate back significantly below 10%. In fact, in a large core region of the euro area the upswing is well under way; this region includes, apart from Germany and some smaller economies, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. However, the crisis of confidence in the ability of EU institutions to master the fiscal crises is a major threat to the continuation of the upswing.
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EFN Report Spring 2011: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012
, 2011
Abstract
Our baseline scenario for the world economy in 2011 and 2012 is a continuation of the upswing, because growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging economies, monetary policy will in general continue to be expansive, and the factors that dampen the recovery in many advanced economies are slowly declining. There are two main downward risks for this prospect: first, low interest rates and high growth might drive commodity prices to disruptive levels. Second, waning confidence in financial markets might enhance volatility and enforce further extensivemeasures of consolidation in advanced economies.
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EFN Report Winter 2010/11: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012
, 2010
Abstract
In most advanced economies, strained public finances compel central banks to keep their expansive course, while interest rates in most emerging markets continue to be relatively low, if compared to their high potential growth rates. Thus, expansive monetary policies throughout the world, while giving cause for concern regarding long run macroeconomic stability, brighten the growth prospects for 2011. Developments in the group of countries that are neither booming nor in stagnation will be pivotal for the euro area economy in 2011. Economic sentiment indicators appear to suggest that important core countries are benefiting more and more from the upswing in Germany. In addition, the crisis of confidence in 2010 has weakened the common currency and thus improved the competitiveness of firms producing in the euro area.
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EFN Report Autumn 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011
, 2010
Abstract
The euro area economy benefits from dynamic growth of exports to the emerging markets. Exports to Asia in particular have exceeded their peak level of spring 2008 as early as at the beginning of this year. Firms reacted by restocking and investing in equipment. The growth hike of the second quarter, however, will not be repeated, as it was favored by special factors. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2010 and 2011. The upswing of world trade calms down in the second half of this year and the effects of fiscal consolidation in Europe become increasingly felt.
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EFN Report Summer 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011
, 2010
Abstract
The world economy is recovering, largely driven by upswings in most emerging market economies. Although growth in these regions is apparently calming down at present, the euro area will still be benefiting from the momentum of a healthily expanding world trade for much of the remaining year. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area during the first half of 2010. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.0% in 2010 and 1.6% in 2011, respectively. Due to this increase in external demand, the growth rate of the industrial production index has also gained momentum: during 2010 the industrial production index is expected to grow around 7%, though only at about 3% in 2011.
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EFN Report Spring 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011
, 2010
Abstract
The world economy will recover during 2010 and 2011 thanks to ultra-low key interest rates in industrial countries and to the strong growth in emerging markets economies. In the euro area, however, the phasing out of expansive fiscal policies and fiscal consolidation will drag down demand; rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery. Internal demand will have a positive (although small) contribution to growth in 2011. We expect euro area GDP to grow around 1.2% and 1.6% during 2010 and 2011, respectively. Due to rising exports, the industrial sector will resume positive growth in the short run but the intensity of the recovery will be moderate and insufficient to compensate the sharp fall of 2009: at the end of 2011, the industrial production index is expected to be still 10% below its pre-crisis levels.
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EFN Report Winter 2009/10: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011
, 2010
Abstract
In 2010, the recovery of the world economy will be driven by a strong expansion of production in many emerging markets. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area. We expect GDP to grow around 1.7% and 1.2% uring 2010 and 2011, respectively. What impedes the recovery is the state of labour markets. In fact, unemployment will continue to rise well into 2011, partly because firms with low capacity utilization will no longer be able to keep workers in employment. The most important reason for the recovery of the real economy appears to be renewed – although still fragile – confidence on financial markets. Official interest rates close to zero and substantial purchases of highly rated assets by important central banks have drastically increased the attractiveness of more risky assets.
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