Revision des neoklassischen Wachstumsmodells - Sind alle Lehrbücher falsch?
Wolfgang Cezanne, Mirko Titze, Lars Weber
WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium,
No. 9,
2006
Abstract
Das neoklassische Wachstumsmodell von Solow aus dem Jahr 1956 gehört heute immer noch zu den wichtigsten Wachstumstheorien. Die heute gelehrten Formen, die sich in nahezu allen volkswirtschaftlichen Lehrbüchern befinden, verletzen jedoch einen wichtigen Zusammenhang aus der volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung: die Identität von Nettoinvestitionen und Ersparnis. Die Lösungen der Lehrbuchmodelle widersprechen damit der ursprünglichen Solow-Lösung. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt die Konsequenzen dieser Ungenauigkeiten auf. Darüber hinaus wird ein Modell präsentiert, das die Identität von Nettoinvestitionen und Ersparnis wahrt und folglich mit der Solow-Lösung vereinbar ist.
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The relationship between unemployment and output in post-communist countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
Post-Communist Economies,
2006
Abstract
Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, and might be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or it may be caused by high labour market rigidity, or aggregate demand that is too weak. In this paper we have investigated the dynamics of unemployment and output in those eight post-communist countries, which entered the EU in 2004. We used a model related to Okun’s Law; i.e. the first differences in unemployment rates were regressed on GDP growth rates. We estimated country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS) and applied a few tests to the data and regression results. We assume transition of labour markets to be accomplished when a robust relationship exists between unemployment rate changes and GDP growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficients contain information about labour market rigidity and unemployment thresholds of output growth. Our results suggest that the transition of labour markets can be regarded as completed since unemployment responds to output changes and not to a changing institutional environment that destroys jobs in the state sector. The regression coefficients have demonstrated that a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth have been occurring since 1998. Therefore, we conclude that labour market rigidities do not play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. However, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress and the employment-relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce the high level of unemployment substantially.
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Measurement Matters — Alternative Input Price Proxies for Bank Efficiency Analyses
Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Services Research,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
Most bank efficiency studies that use stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) employ each bank’s own implicit input price when estimating efficient frontiers. But at the same time, most studies are based on cost and/or profit models that assume perfect input markets. Traditional input price proxies therefore contain at least substantial measurement error. We suggest here two alternative input market definitions to approximate exogenous input prices. We have access to Bundesbank data, which allows us to cover virtually all German universal banks between 1993 and 2003. The use of alternative input price proxies leads to mean cost efficiency that is significantly five percentage points lower compared to traditional input prices. Mean profit efficiency is hardly affected. Across models, small cooperative banks located in large western states perform best while large banks and those located in eastern states rank lowest.
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Das Grundeinkommen - Potenziale und Grenzen eines Reformvorschlags
Ingmar Kumpmann
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 9,
2006
Abstract
Currently the idea of introducing a Basic Income is politically debated. A Basic Income is “an income paid by a political community to all its members, without means test or consideration” (Vanderborght/Van Parijs). It would replace the existing tax and welfare schemes which guarantee the subsistence levels for all individuals. The Basic Income would prevent poverty, simplify the tax and social security system and disburden labour from the costs of social security. It would put an end to the highly problematic governmental controls concerning the ability and willingness of the unemployed to work. The main challenges of the proposal are the difficulty of funding and the danger of reduced labour incentives, problems which limit the possibility for implementing the model.
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Vielfältigkeit eines Hybridberufes: Mechatronikfacharbeiter nach der Ausbildung
Simone Scharfe, K. Tautenhahn
External Publications,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
In the period from 2002 to 2004, 302 skilled workers successfully concluded their education as a mechatroniker, microtechnologist, chemical laboratory assistant, physics laboratory assistant or varnish laboratory assistant within the scope of the model project "compound education in new professions of high technology" which was initiated by the Saxonian State Ministry of Economy and Labor. The model project and the scientific monitoring were promoted from means of the European Social Fund and complementary state means of the Free State of Saxony.
Some months after the completion of their education, the graduates were questioned by the scientific monitoring about different aspects concerning the model project and its evaluation, points of interests have for example been:
§ the retrospective assessment of the education and the model project,
§ the estimation of their chances in the job market,
§ the professional whereabouts as well as
§ the evaluation of their knowledge in terms of its suitability for daily use.
In this article, the results of the last both points in the view of the mechatroniker, which are the biggest group in the model project with 180 graduates, are picked out as a central theme. Because the mechatronikers should combine the branches of the mechanics and the electronics in the second part of the result representation the actual operational areas of the former trainee are examined.
ich hätte evtl. einiges anders formuliert: (der Satzbau klingt sonst so eingedeutscht)
The article mainly refers to the last two points. Also, the view is limited to the results of the mechatroniker. Covering 180 graduates, it has been the largest group within the model project.
The intention of the new occupational image of the mechatroniker was a bridging of mechanics and electronics. Therefore, it is examined in the second part of this article, to which extend this bridging is reflected in the actual operational areas of the former trainees.
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Economies of scope duly considered for the IPO of the Deutsche Bahn?
Christian Growitsch, Heike Wetzel
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
Die aktuelle Diskussion um den Umfang des Börsengangs der Deutschen Bahn – unter Einbeziehung des Schienennetzes oder nicht – konzentriert sich im wesentlichen auf Fragen der Wettbewerbswirkung und der zukünftigen Belastung des Staatshaushaltes. Eventuelle Vorteile der bestehenden Organisationsform der Deutschen Bahn, also eines vertikal integrierten Eisenbahnunternehmens, das sowohl den Infrastrukturzugang als auch Transportdienstleistungen anbietet, blieben trotz ihrer Bestätigung in einer Vielzahl theoretischer Analysen weitgehend unberücksichtigt. Die Deutsche Bahn äußerte nun die Befürchtung, daß eine solche Separierung Vorteile der vertikalen Integration (sogenannte Verbundvorteile) vermindern würde und somit nicht geeignet sei, die gesamtgesellschaftliche Wohlfahrt zu erhöhen. In einer paneuropäischen Analyse der Produktivität europäischer Eisenbahnunternehmen wird mit dem Fokus der Untersuchung auf etwaige Verbundvorteile überprüft, ob integrierte Eisenbahnunternehmen eine höhere technische Effizienz aufweisen als vertikal separierte Unternehmen. Dazu wird ein Modell erstellt, das die Effizienz der integrierten Produktionstechnologie im Verhältnis zu einer Referenzgruppe virtueller, aus den separierten Unternehmen konstruierter Beobachtungseinheiten berechnet. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf existierende Verbundvorteile für die Mehrzahl der europäischen Eisenbahnunternehmen hin. Dies sollte in der Entscheidung hinsichtlich des Börsengangs der Deutschen Bahn explizite Berücksichtigung finden.
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Excess Volatility in European Equity Style Indices - New Evidence
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2006
Abstract
Are financial markets efficient? One proposition that seems to contradict this is Shiller’s finding of excess volatility in asset prices and its resulting rejection of the discounted cash flow model. This paper replicates Shiller’s approach for a different data set and extends his analysis by testing for a long-run relationship by means of a cointegration analysis. Contrary to previous studies, monthly data for an integrated European stock market is being used, with special attention to equity style investment strategies. On the basis of this analysis’ results, Shiller’s findings seem questionable. While a long-run relationship between prices and dividends can be observed for all equity styles, a certain degree, but to a much smaller extent than in Shiller’s approach, of excess volatility cannot be rejected. But it seems that a further relaxation of Shiller’s assumptions would completely eliminate the finding of an overly strong reaction of prices to changes in dividends. Two interesting side results are, that all three investment styles seem to have equal performance when adjusting for risk, which by itself is an indication for efficiency and that market participants seem to use current dividend payments from one company as an indication for future dividend payments by other firms. Overall the results of this paper lead to the conclusion that efficiency cannot be rejected for an integrated European equity market.
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Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Förderung regenerativer Energien, insbesondere der Biomasse - Eine kritische Beurteilung vor dem Hintergrund modelltheoretischer Konzeptionen
Götz Zeddies
Zeitschrift für Umweltpolitik und Umweltrecht 2/2006,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
Renewable energies are largely promoted in the Federal Republic of Germany by means of political instruments by the federal government as well as by the federal states. However, the effects of promoting renewable energies on growth and employment are politically controversial. On the part of the scientists, the macroeconomic effects of the promotion of renewable energies were already analysed in different studies by various authors. At first sight, even the scientific results do not allow definite conclusions. The reasons for this may be seen in the diversity of the applied empirical methods and models with respect to their closeness and the model assumptions. Against the background of these difficulties, the aim of this paper is to discuss the general problems of macroeconomic policy analyses, to formulate methodical model requirements and to examine important existing scientific studies with respect to these requirements and to evaluate their results.
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Cross-border Bank Contagion in Europe
Reint E. Gropp, M. Lo Duca, Jukka M. Vesala
ECB Working Paper, No. 662,
No. 662,
2006
Abstract
This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances“) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in the distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification.
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Progressivity and flexibility in developing an effective competition regime: using experiences of Poland, Ukraine and South Africa for developing countries. Forschungsbericht innerhalb des EU-Projektes: Competition Policy Foundations for Trade Reform, Regulatory Reform, and Sustainable Development, 2005
Franz Kronthaler, Johannes Stephan
One-off Publications,
No. 5,
2005
Abstract
The paper discusses the role of the concept of special and differential treatment in the framework of regional trade agreements for the development of a competition regime. After a discussion of the main characteristics and possible shortfalls of those concepts, three case countries are assessed in terms of their experience with progressivity, flexibility, and technical and financial assistance: Poland was led to align its competition laws to match the model of the EU. The Ukraine opted voluntarily for the European model, this despite its intense integration mainly with Russia. South Africa, a developing country that emerged from a highly segregated social fabric and an economy dominated by large conglomerates with concentrated ownership. All three countries enacted (or comprehensively reformed) their competition laws in an attempt to face the challenges of economic integration and catch up development on the one hand and particular social problems on the other. Hence, their experience may be pivotal for a variety of different developing countries who are in negotiations to include competition issues in regional trade agreements. The results suggest that the design of such competition issues have to reflect country-particularities to achieve an efficient competition regime.
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