On the Institutional Safeguarding of Monetary Policy – a Post-Keynesian Perspective
A. Heise, Toralf Pusch
International Journal of Public Policy,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The paper takes a fresh look at the governance of the most important macroeconomic objectives: price stability and full employment. On the basis of a post-Keynesian market constellations approach, the necessity and institutional requirements of the coordination of macroeconomic policy areas in general and an optimal central bank setting in particular are analysed, and an amelioration of monetary policy of the neo-Keynesian ‘new macroeconomic consensus’ is provided.
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Demographic Change and Labour Markets: Why are Older Employees less Mobile?
Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
Since older workers are less disposed to change jobs workforce ageing will affect labour mobility in Germany. On the basis of the IAB-Employment Sample (IABS) the contribution analyzes the effect of age on job and occupational mobility. The study focuses on the question whether older workers are less mobile due to the optimal matching quality of their current job which cannot be improved by job switches or whether other factors have to be considered for explaining the age related mobility decline.
Econometric results firstly confirm the significance of expected wage growth for mobility decision across all age groups. Secondly, older workers seem to benefit from wage increase due to a job change less frequently than younger workers. However, this factor explains only a part of the mobility lag. Even after controlling for the wage effect younger workers change jobs more often than older ones.
For this reason the opinion that ageing will impede the labour market adjustments cannot be disabled. If older workers only slightly react on wage signals and do not respond to attractive offers growing firms might face problems to recruit appropriate staff – a trend which could have negative consequences for technological and sectoral changes of the entire economy.
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Comparing the training activities of unemployed and full-time employed people
Birgit Schultz, Joachim Wilde
Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Many empirical studies for Germany consider either the training activities of the unemployed or those of employees. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups had not been conducted until now. The paper closes this gap. Using data from the latest time-use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training undertaken by the two groups is compared. Furthermore, the types of activities that are made use of in particular are described. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by applying a matching procedure. The findings demonstrate that only 49% of unemployed people participate in any kind of training activity off the job. In the case of full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference is reversed, i.e. the expenditure of time is greater during unemployment. However, a large proportion of the training activities undertaken by the unemployed comprises general training, e.g. by reading books or watching television. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. In relation to this potential of time, the amount of training activity is still smaller during unemployment.
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Vergleich der Weiterbildungsaktivitäten von Arbeitslosen und Vollzeiterwerbstätigen
Birgit Schultz, Joachim Wilde
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
Many empirical studies consider either training activities of the unemployed or training activities of the employees in Germany. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups is missing. The paper closes this gap. Using data of the latest time use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training is compared for both groups. Furthermore, it is described which types of activities are made use of in particular. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by the appliance of a matching procedure. Findings demonstrate that only 49% of the unemployed persons participate in any kind of training activities off the job. In case of the full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference turns around, i.e. the expenditure of time is higher during unemployment. However, a high proportion of the training activities of the unemployed falls upon general training, e.g. by reading books or watching TV. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. Relating to this potential of time the amount of training activities is still lower during unemployment.
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Systematic Mispricing in European Equity Prices?
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
One empirical argument that has been around for some time and that clearly contra- dicts equity market efficiency is that market prices seem too volatile to be optimal estimates of the present value of future discounted cash flows. Based on this, it is deduced that systematic pricing errors occur in equity markets which hence can not be efficient in the Effcient Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the underlying assumptions, which are being employed to estimate the present value of cash flows. Using monthly data for three investment style indices from an integrated European Equity market, all usual assumptions are dropped. This is achieved by employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and De Long. In extension to Barsky and De Long, the discount rate is not assumed at some arbitrary level, but it is estimated from the data. In this manner, the empirical results do not rely on the prerequisites of sta- tionary dividends, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably, but is not eliminated. Furthermore, it can be seen that the resulting discount factors for the three in- vestment style indices can not be considered equal, which, on a risk-adjusted basis, indicates performance differences in the investment strategies and hence stands in contradiction to an efficient market. Finally, the estimated discount rates under- went a plausibility check, by comparing their general movement to a market based interest rate. Besides the most recent data, the estimated discount rates match the movements of market interest rates fairly well.
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Zeitpotential für berufliche Weiterbildung von Arbeitslosen wenig genutzt
Joachim Wilde, Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2007
Abstract
In general, unemployed persons spend more time on further training than full-time employees. Using data of the latest time use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, this study analyzes whether this higher potential of time is being used or not. Furthermore, it describes which types of activities are made use of in particular. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by the appliance of a matching procedure.
Findings demonstrate that only around 15 % of the unemployed persons participate in further training activities off the job. In case of the full-time employment just under 40 % of the persons would take part. Relating to the average expenditure of time per week the difference decrease clearly. However, altogether the expenditure of time is not higher during unemployment.
A selection of subsamples points out different results, i.e. in some subsamples the expenditure of time for further training is larger during unemployment. However, in the subsample of low skilled persons these results are mainly caused by activities like hearing radio or watching TV. Thus, it is doubtful whether the higher expenditure of time qualifies for the primary labour market.
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Mikroökonometrische Evaluation der ökonomischen Wirkungen betrieblicher Mitbestimmung - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des Matching-Ansatzes
Birgit Schultz
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
No. 5,
2006
Abstract
The evaluation of economic effects of workers participation is not simple from the methodical point of view because of specific characteristics of establishments with works councils. Especially recent studies show contradictory results. In this study problems are pointed out, discussed, and options for solution are presented on the example of workers participation in East German establishments of industry and construction by the IAB-Establishment Panel.
An optimal matching-algorithm which supplies good matching-results for small samples to assign 'statistical establishment-twins' is applied. But by reason of very short primarily spells it can only calculate short time effects. Therefore, the matching method is additionally used to construct longer observation periods. By this new application establishments with recently founded works councils are matched with so called 'proxy establishments' with existing works councils. As a result short observation periods are prolonged and information about long-term effects can be given.
The effects on productivity, profitability and qualification level of employees show neither in short-term nor in long-term a significant impact on workers' participation.
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Options and Limits of the Matching Approach – An Application to Workers Participation
Birgit Schultz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2006
Abstract
The evaluation of economic effects of workers participation is not simple from the methodical point of view because of specific characteristics of establishments with works councils. Especially recent studies show contradictory results. In this study problems are pointed out, discussed, and options for solution are presented on the example of workers participation in East German establishments of industry and construction by the IABEstablishment Panel. An optimal matching-algorithm which supplies good matching-results for small samples to assign ‘statistical establishment-twins’ is applied. But by reason of very short primarily spells it can only calculate short time effects. Therefore, the matching method is additionally used to construct longer observation periods. By this new application establishments with recently founded works councils are matched with so called ‘proxy establishments’ with existing works councils. As a result short observation periods are prolonged and information about long-term effects can be given. The effects on productivity, profitability and qualification level of employees show neither in short-term nor in long-term a significant impact on workers’ participation.
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Evaluation of Further Training Programmes with an Optimal Matching Algorithm
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics,
2005
Abstract
This paper evaluates the effects of further training on the unemployment duration of different groups of persons representing individual characteristics and some aspects of the economic environment. The Micro Census Saxony enables us to include the employment history as a proxy for unobserved variables and to avoid Ashenfelters Dip. We employ an optimal full matching assignment, which is superior to greedy pair matching in the sense that it avoids the loss of observations due to the design of the algorithm. Overall, we find empirical evidence that participation in further training programmes results in even longer unemployment, with only gradual differences.
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Evaluation of Further Training Programmes with an Optimal Matching Algorithm
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 188,
2004
Abstract
This study evaluates the effects of further training on the individual unemployment duration of different groups of persons representing individual characteristics and some aspects of the economic environment. The Micro Census Saxony enables us to include additional information about a person's employment history to eliminate the bias resulting from unobservable characteristics and to avoid Ashenfelter's Dip. In order to solve the sample selection problem we employ an optimal full matching assignment, the Hungarian algorithm. The impact of participation in further training is evaluated by comparing the unemployment duration between participants and non-participants using the Kaplan-Meier-estimator. Overall, we find empirical evidence that participation in further training programmes results in even longer unemployment duration.
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