Moderate production and employment effects through rising crude oil prices – A simulation with the macroeconomic IWH model –
Christian Dreger
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2000
Abstract
In the article the impacts of a rise in oil prices on production and employment are examined. The impacts are carried out by simulation on the grounds of a macroeconometric model. Given various price developments, the effects on production and employment are less pronounced than those in previous crisis. In the worst case scenario, output losses are 0.4 percentage points of the overall growth rate of the economy.
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Industry sketch: East German timber industry (without furniture production)
Siegfried Beer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2000
Abstract
Die Holzindustrie (ohne Möbelproduktion) gehört aufgrund ihrer engen Bindung mit der Bau- und Modernisierungstätigkeit der Unternehmen und privaten Haushalte zu den wachstumsstarken Industriebranchen in Ostdeutschland. Verstärkte Auslandslieferungen haben dämpfende Einflüsse der inländischen Nachfrage zum Teil ausgleichen können. Die wirtschaftliche Tätigkeit der Unternehmen wird vor allem durch die unzureichende Ertragslage belastet.
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Current trends – Future demographic development requires stronger productivity growth
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2000
Abstract
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Structural change, specialization patterns, and the productivity gap between Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2000
Abstract
The transition countries of Central East Europe exhibit significantly lower productivity levels than that of the average of the 15 European Union countries. Since the outset of transition, however, this gap has clearly narrowed.
Next to technological and organisational factors it is sectoral structures which play an important role for the development and level of national productivities: in most transition economies, structural change clearly contributed positively to productivity growth. Poland is an exception here, no significant effect of structural change between sectors and industrial branches on the growth of the national productivity level could be found. The low intensity of structural adjustment in Poland in particular in the agricultural sector corresponds with a decisive role played by the sectoral pattern of specialisation within the European division of labour as determinant of the productivity gap. Hungary and to some degree also Slovenia, the country with the lowest productivity gap, exhibit similar results. Only in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia remain negligible the explanatory powers of respective patterns of specialisation as productivity determinants.
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Human capital in transformation – The example of the new Länder
Ralf Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 126,
2000
Abstract
The human capital of a nation is highly correlated to its productivity. Thus, differences in human capital may be seen as one factor determining the productivity gap between East and West Germany. However, a disadvantage of East Germany with regard to hu-man capital only shows up as long as it concerns skills that are built up on the job, i.e., by learning by doing; even more, this disadvantage has been decreasing in the 1990's. In contrast, as long as it concerns skills that have been acquired through formal education, East Germany has a high level of human capital in comparison to West Germany. In general, the problem of East Germany’s human capital proves to be rather demand-sided. It may be due to East Germany’s low skill-intensive industry structure.
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East German economy 2000 and 2001: Further growth in overall production despite new slump in construction industry
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2000
Abstract
For the first time the main economic indicators for East Germany are presented in terms of the New European System of National Accounts (ESA)up to 1999. Insights are given into the sectoral composition of gross domestic product and employment. The article presents forecasts for 2000 und 2001 for the sectors “manufacturing“, “construction“ and “services“.
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Environmental policy under product differentiation and asymmetric costs - Does leapfrogging occur and is it worth it?
Jacqueline Rothfels
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 124,
2000
Abstract
This paper studies the influence of environmental policies on environmental quality, domestic firms, and welfare. Point of departure is Porter’s hypothesis that unilateral environmental regulation may enhance the competitiveness of domestic firms. This hypothesis has recently received considerable support in theoretical analyses, especially if imperfectly competitive markets with strategic behavior on behalf of the agents are taken into account. Our work contributes to this literature by explicitely investigating the implications of asymmetric cost structures between a domestic and a foreign firm sector. We use a partial-equilibrium model of vertical product differentiation, where the consumption of a product causes environmental harm. Allowing for differentiated products, the domestic industry can either assume the market leader position or lag behind in terms of the environmental quality of the produced product. Assuming as a benchmark case that the domestic industry lags behind, we investigate the possibility of the government to induce leapfrogging of the domestic firm, i.e. a higher quality produced by the domestic firm after regulation than that of the competitor prior to regulation. It is shown that in the case of a cost advantage for the domestic firm in the production process the imposition of a binding minimum quality standard can serve as a tool to induce leapfrogging. In case of a cost disadvantage the same result can be achieved through an adequate subsidization of quality dependend production costs. Thus, careful regulation enables the domestic firm in both scenarios to better its competitive position against foreign competitors and to earn larger profits. Additionally, environmental quality and welfare can be enhanced.
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Business cycle 2000 and 2001: Change of buoyant forces stabilizes strong production dynamic in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2000
Abstract
Der Aufsatz analysiert und prognostiziert die konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland und im Euroraum in ausführlicher Form für das laufende Jahr 2000 und das Folgejahr 2001. Begünstigt von der Aufhellung des weltwirtschaftlichen Umfeldes sowie vom Kursrückgang des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar expandiert die Ausfuhr aus Deutschland kräftiger als noch vor einigen Monaten erwartet. Der exportgeleitete Aufschwung beflügelt die Investitionstätigkeit. Der entscheidende Schub für die Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte kommt im Jahr 2001 von der dritten Stufe des Steuerentlastungsgesetzes, die in Verbindung mit der Unternehmenssteuerreform vorgezogen werden soll. Die wichtigsten Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung für Deutschland sind in einer detaillierten Anhangstabelle enthalten.
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Capital equipment of East German work stations: Do not overstate gaps
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2000
Abstract
New jobs depend heavily on productive investment. As nearly 800 bio DM were invested in the East German enterprise sector since 1990, most existing jobs can be regarded potentially competitive now. However, capital intensity is still much lower than in West Germany and reaches a level of only 75 per cent. In manufacturing, however, capital intensity is only slightly lower than in the old Laender.
There are mainly two reasons for the low capital intensity in the aggregate: The dominance of small firms producing regularly with a small capital stock per employee, and lower wages in East Germany compared with West Germany: Although capital prices are distorted by high subsidies, factor price relations favour labor to capital. This leads to the conclusion that low capital intensity reflects an optimum; convergence is therefore not necessarily to occur.
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Industry sketch: East German metal production industry
Siegfried Beer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2000
Abstract
Die Privatisierung und Umstrukturierung der metallerzeugenden und metallverarbeitenden Industrie gehörte zu den schwierigsten Aufgaben bei der Überführung der DDR-Industrie von der Planwirtschaft in die Marktwirtschaft. Die wirtschaftliche Erholung begann daher im Vergleich zu vielen anderen Industriezweigen relativ spät. Der Abschluss zahlreicher Modernisierungsmaßnahmen und das verbesserte konjunkturelle Umfeld führten dazu, dass es seit 1997 zu deutlichen Produktionssteigerungen gekommen ist. Dabei ragten die Gießereien noch heraus.
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