Population and labour market
Population and labour market Inhabitants are all people (Germans and foreigners) with permanent residence in federal territory (or in a Land). That does not include ...
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14.02.2023 • 4/2023
Study on Europe's top bankers: Risky business despite bonus cap
Ten years ago, the EU Parliament decided to cap the flexible remuneration of bank managers. But the cap on bonuses misses its target: Managers of systemically important European banks take high risks without changes, shows a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Michael Koetter
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29.09.2022 • 24/2022
The East German economy expanded strongly in the first half of 2022, but falls into recession in the second half of the year ‒ Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2022 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Office
The energy crisis is pushing the German economy into recession. This also affects the economy in East Germany. According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), East German production will expand at a slightly stronger rate of 1.5% than in Germany as a whole. For the coming year, the decline in East Germany is expected to be less pronounced than in the west at 0.1% (Germany: ‒0.4%). For 2024, the economists forecast a growth of 1.7% (Germany: 1.9%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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Kommentar: Der rosa Rentenelefant
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
Das Sondierungspapier von SPD, Grünen und FDP ist in einigen Punkten überraschend konkret. Zwölf Euro Mindestlohn, keine Steuererhöhungen, die Schuldenbremse bleibt, ein Bürgergeld, Bürokratieabbau, eine Solardachpflicht. Abgesehen davon, dass unklar bleibt, wie ohne Steuererhöhungen und mit Schuldenbremse die Ausgaben finanziert werden sollen, ist das Papier allerdings in einem entscheidenden Punkt erstaunlich vage: Wie sollen die Renten vor dem Hintergrund des demographischen Wandels finanziert werden?
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Aktuelle Trends: Durchschnittliche Rentenbezugsdauer in den vergangenen Jahren konstant, aber mehr Neuzugänge in Altersrente
Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
Aufgrund des demographischen Wandels gibt es seit einiger Zeit eine Diskussion über die Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters zur Stabilisierung der Finanzierung der Altersrenten. Diese wird in der Öffentlichkeit teilweise sehr emotional geführt, da ein Teil der künftigen Rentnerinnen und Rentner befürchtet, finanziell schlechter gestellt zu werden oder durch einen späteren Renteneintritt unerwünschte gesundheitliche Folgen tragen zu müssen.
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15.04.2021 • 12/2021
Economy in East Germany shrank less than in the West, but will have weaker momentum when pandemic disappears – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2021 and new data for East Germany
At 3%, the increase in gross domestic product in eastern Germany in 2021 is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (3.7%), as the slump due to the pandemic was smaller in 2020. In the course of the economic recovery in the second half of the year, the unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly.
Oliver Holtemöller
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14.12.2020 • 25/2020
Deutsche Lebensversicherer investieren nicht ausreichend in Start-ups
Die deutschen Lebensversicherer legen ihr Kapital bislang zu wenig in Aktien an und hemmen so die wirtschaftliche Dynamik. Eine Studie des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) legt nahe, dass der Gründerszene Risikokapital fehlt, um erfolgreiche Start-ups zu finanzieren. Grund dafür ist das Anlageverhalten potenzieller Investoren. IWH-Präsident Reint Gropp fordert Reformen, die die Finanzierung innovativer Ideen fördern.
Reint E. Gropp
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14.10.2020 • 22/2020
Economic slump in East Germany not as severe as in Germany as a whole ‒ Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast and new data for East Germany
The German economy started recovering quickly after the drastic pandemic-related slump in spring 2020. The recovery, however, loses much of its momentum in the second half of the year. The Joint Economic Forecast predicts that production levels seen before the crisis will not be reached again until the second half of 2021. In principle, the East German economy is following this pattern, although the economic slump is likely to be somewhat milder.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Cross-country Evidence on the Relationship between Regulations and the Development of the Life Insurance Sector
Chrysovalantis Gaganis, Iftekhar Hasan, Fotios Pasiouras
Economic Modelling,
July
2020
Abstract
Using a global sample, this study sketches the impact of insurance regulations on the life insurance sector, revealing a significant negative association between supervisory control on policy conditions of life annuities as well as pension products and the development of the industry. A similar inverse relation is observed between the index of capital requirements and insurance development. These results hold when we control for demographic factors, economic factors, religious inclination, culture, as well as for other relevant regulations. We also find some evidence that while the overall supervisory power does not matter, the ability to intervene at an early stage could have a positive effect on insurance development. Additionally, the impact of some regulations appears to differ between advanced and developing countries.
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19.12.2018 • 23/2018
IWH Mid-term Projections: The German Economy and Public Finances 2018 to 2025
In 2018 the general government overall balance is likely to be in surplus by almost 60 billion euros. In the medium term, however, demographic conditions will deteriorate, as will public finances. The financial position of the German state will nevertheless remain stable until 2025, unless major negative shocks occur. “But even if interest rates rose significantly or foreign demand declined markedly, only moderate deficits would arise”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department of Macroeconomics and vice president at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). However, given the expected reduction of the surplus under existing legislation, there is no room for further increases in spending.
Oliver Holtemöller
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