Threshold for employment and unemployment. A spatial analysis of German RLM's 1992-2000
Christian Dreger, Reinhold Kosfeld
External Publications,
2006
Abstract
Changes in production and employment are closely related over the course of the business cycle. However, as exemplified by the laws of Verdoorn (1949, 1993) and Okun (1962, 1970), thresholds seem to be present in the relationship. Due to capacity reserves of the firms, output growth must exceed certain levels for the creation of new jobs or a fall in the unemployment rate. While Verdoorn's law focuses on the growth rate of output sufficient for an increase in employment, in Okun's law, the fall in the unemployment rate becomes the focus of attention. In order to assess the future development of employment and unemployment, these thresholds have to be taken into account. They serve as important guidelines for policymakers. In contrast to previous studies, we present joint estimates for both the employment and unemployment threshold. Due to demographic patterns and institutional settings on the labour market, the two thresholds can differ, implying that minimum output growth needed for a rise in employment may not be sufficient for a simultaneous drop in the unemployment rate. Second, regional information is considered to a large extent. In particular, the analysis is carried out using a sample of 180 German regional labour markets, see Eckey (2001). Since the cross-sections are separated by the flows of job commuters, they correspond to travel-to-work areas. Labour mobility is high within a market, but low among the entities. As the sectoral decomposition of economic activities varies across the regions, the thresholds are founded on a heterogeneous experience, leading to more reliable estimates.The contribution to the literature is twofold. First, to the best of our knowledge, no previous paper has investigated a similar broad regional dataset for the German economy as a whole before. By using a panel dataset, information on the regional distributions around the regression lines as well as theirs positional changes is provided for each year. Second, the methods applied are of new type. They involve a mixture of pooled and spatial econometric techniques. Dependencies across the regions may result from common or idiosyncratic (region specific) shocks. In particular, the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000) is used to identify spatial and non-spatial components in regression analysis. As the spatial pattern may vary over time, inference is conducted on the base of a spatial SUR model. Due to this setting, efficient estimates of the thresholds are obtained. With the aid of a geographic information system (GIS) variation of the spatial components can be made transparent. With Verdoorn’s and Okun’s law the figures show some significant patterns become obvious over time. In respect to Verdoorn’s law, for instance, a stripe of high values in the north-western part from Schleswig-Holstein via Lower Saxony and North Rhine Westfalia to Rhineland Palatinate is striking in all years but 1994 and 1995. In most periods the spatial component is likewise concentrated in Saxony. Clusters of low values can be found in northern Bavaria and, in some periods, in Thüringen and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Other parts of Germany appear to be more fragmented consisting of relative small clusters of low, medium and high values of the spatial component. With Okun’s law some changing spatial patterns arise. In all, spatially filtering provides valuable insights into the spatial dimensions of the laws of Verdoorn and Okun.
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Interregional equalization policy in focus: Donor regions and beneficiary regions and their economic performance
Gerhard Heimpold, Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2006
Abstract
The future of the interregional equalization policy in Germany is discussed intensively at present. While in the past the interest of equalization policy was focussed primarily on the regions which benefit from interregional equalization policy (beneficiary regions) and the effects obtained there, recently the view is directed also toward the regions which bear the fiscal burden of the equalisation policy (donor regions). Concerning the donor regions, a fear of growth-absorbing withdrawal effects exists, which gives reason in view of declining economic growth rates on the national level to think about the future of interregional equalization policy. The IWH contributed to this debate together with two project partners by an investigation, which was accomplished on behalf of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning. The following findings will show the economic performance of the donor regions (exclusively West German regions) and of the beneficiary regions (all East German regions and a few West German regions) and their changing economic growth patterns. Concerning the level of economic performance, measured by means of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, as expected, the donor regions, consisting of West German regions, in the period 1992-2003 altogether show an above average GDP per capita. In contrast, the beneficiary regions, both the East German and (less strongly) the West German show a GDP per capita below average. Concerning the development of the economic performance, which was measured on the basis of the relative GDP per capita (GDP per capita of the region concerned in relation to the national average), the East German beneficiary regions could catch up in the first period (1992-1998) strongly. This catching up process, however, clearly slowed down in the second period 1998-2003. Like a mirror-image the lead of the donor regions regarding GDP per capita in relation to the national average became smaller. But after 1998 many West German donor regions regained their growth dynamics. Additionally the contributions of the regions to the absolute increase of the GDP in the period 1998-2003 were investigated: 30 of 271 regions have a share of around 50% in the overall GDP increase, 28 of them located in West Germany, and 21 of them donor regions. This in mind, the policy should further provide and secure favourable development conditions for those regions, which contribute at most to the increase of the overall economic performance and thus create the economic base for the interregional equalization policy.
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Die Gestaltung der Wirtschaftsstruktur durch das Land Brandenburg - Eine kritische Analyse der Subventionszahlungen für die CargoLifter AG
Mirko Titze
Forum der Forschung. Wissenschaftsmagazin der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität Cottbus,
No. 17,
2004
Abstract
The Government of the State of Brandenburg subsidised the company CargoLifter AG on the basis of the „new industrial policy“. Following this policy the government supports individually selected industries or companies. The „new industrial policy“ is supported by the strategic trade policy, which states that subsidising domestic companies in incomplete markets with declining average costs and high entry barriers can increase the welfare level of a particular region. The following article provides an analysis whether in the case of Cargo-Lifter the Government of the State of Brandenburg pursued an effective strategic trade policy. Moreover the article investigates particular problems of the strategic trade policy.
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Where are the economic development cores of East Germany? Results of a survey of the focuses of branches, enterprise networks and innovative competence fields in the East German Regions
Peter Franz, Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Regionale Strukturpolitik - quo vadis?, Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, Heft 9,
No. 9,
2006
Abstract
The contribution presents the results of an empirical study conducted by the Halle Institute for Economic Research on behalf of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning. The study concerns the identification of “regional clusters” for all spatial planning regions in East Germany. As criteria to identify clusters, three components were taken into consideration: spatially concentrated industries, enterprise networks and innovative competence fields, whereas, for the purpose of identifying “clusters”, the networks and innovative competences have to show a co-incidence with the industry which is spatially concentrated. Cases of co-incidence of all three elements were categorised as economic development cores (or spots), i. e. as forms of spatially concentrated economic activities which show cluster-relevant qualities. For regions which possess economic development spots, the growth perspectives can be expected as more favourable in comparison with other regions. The findings show a particularly high concentration of economic development spots in the Berlin region as well as in the Federal States of Saxony and Thuringia, where the cities of Dresden, Leipzig, Erfurt and Chemnitz form delineating points within which a particularly high number of economic development spots are existent. As a consequence, the study might initiate a debate in favour of a stronger spatial concentration of regional policy measures instead of spreading the resources by “watering can principle”.
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Economic development cores in East German regions: branch concentrations, company networks and innovative fields of competence of the economy
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Peter Franz, Jutta Günther, Gerhard Heimpold, Franz Kronthaler
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 5,
2006
Abstract
Der Begriff „Cluster“ ist in jüngster Zeit für die Akteure der Raumentwicklungspolitik auf allen Ebenen des Staates fast zu einer Art Zauberformel zur Beschwörung der Kräfte des regionalen Wirtschaftswachstums geworden. Die Sache hat allerdings mindestens zwei Haken: erstens hat jeder Akteur seine eigene Auffassung von dem, was unter Clustern zu verstehen ist; zweitens besteht ebenfalls keine Einigkeit darüber, mit welchen Strategien die vorhandenen Cluster unterstützt oder neue Cluster entwickelt werden sollten.
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The IWH signals approach: the present potential for a financial crisis in selected Central and East European countries and Turkey
Hubert Gabrisch, Simone Lösel
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
The steep increase of oil prices, general threats rooting from Iran’s nuclear program, and doubts about the future policy of important central banks recently caused more uncertainties of investors on international financial markets. This explains the higher volatility and the fall of indices on stock markets including those of some Central and East European countries. International investors could respond with adjustments of their portfolio and trigger off a financial crisis. On this background, the article studies the potential for a financial crises in the region mentioned. The analytical tool is the IWH signals approach. The study concludes that the risk of the outbreak of a financial crisis within the next 18 months is rather unrealistic in most countries. A stable economic policy, high real growth rates, a financial system already robust compared to earlier times of transition, and appropriate exchange rate arrangements protect the countries against speculative attacks and portfolio adjustments. When the composite indicator shows deterioration like in the Baltic countries, it turned out to be negligible. For the Slovak Republic and Slovenia, the composite indicator even improved. A closer look to individual indicators reveals still some problems in the banking sectors of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary, however, without out major impact on the composite indicator.
This general assessment does not apply to Romania, and, in particular, to Turkey. The composite indicator signals a significant increase of the risk potential for the next 18 months in both countries. There is a considerable need for sound policy action.
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Progressivity and flexibility in developing an effective competition regime: using experiences of Poland, Ukraine and South Africa for developing countries. Forschungsbericht innerhalb des EU-Projektes: Competition Policy Foundations for Trade Reform, Regulatory Reform, and Sustainable Development, 2005
Franz Kronthaler, Johannes Stephan
One-off Publications,
No. 5,
2005
Abstract
The paper discusses the role of the concept of special and differential treatment in the framework of regional trade agreements for the development of a competition regime. After a discussion of the main characteristics and possible shortfalls of those concepts, three case countries are assessed in terms of their experience with progressivity, flexibility, and technical and financial assistance: Poland was led to align its competition laws to match the model of the EU. The Ukraine opted voluntarily for the European model, this despite its intense integration mainly with Russia. South Africa, a developing country that emerged from a highly segregated social fabric and an economy dominated by large conglomerates with concentrated ownership. All three countries enacted (or comprehensively reformed) their competition laws in an attempt to face the challenges of economic integration and catch up development on the one hand and particular social problems on the other. Hence, their experience may be pivotal for a variety of different developing countries who are in negotiations to include competition issues in regional trade agreements. The results suggest that the design of such competition issues have to reflect country-particularities to achieve an efficient competition regime.
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Database on competition law enactment in developing countries, the budget and staff of the relevant competition agency, and other structural (economic and otherwise) characteristics. Forschungsbericht innerhalb des EU-Projektes: Competition Policy Foundations for Trade Reform, Regulatory Reform, and Sustainable Development, 2005
Johannes Stephan, Franz Kronthaler
One-off Publications,
No. 4,
2005
Abstract
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Vernetzung und einzelwirtschaftliche Effekte von Unternehmen der Kunststoff- und Biotechnologiebranche in Mitteldeutschland - eine Analyse am Beispiel der Clusterinitiativen „Chemie/Kunststoffe“ und „Biotechnologie/Life Sciences“
Walter Komar
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
According to theoretical implications the success of enterprises benefits from co-operation in clusters and networks. Studies of cluster and network processes show this for the industries chemistry/plastics and biotechnology/Life Sciences in Central Ger-many. Therefore enterprises which are organized in networks have better economic characteristics. Estimations of the productivity of firms using co-operation-based and non-co-operation-based factors as independent variables reveal a significantly positive influence of the propensity to co-operate as well as networking. In this regard scientific institutions and universities located in the region of firms play an important role. From this analysis it can be generalized and concluded, also concerning other industries, that networks emerge automatically under certain conditions. Nevertheless their creation and development should be encouraged, e.g. by efficiency strengthening of public research and university education as well as the intensification of co-operation and networking between the scientific and the corporate sector. This can promote the technology and human capital transfer.
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Wie steht es in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern um die Ballung wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten? - Eine Untersuchung unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Städte des Landes
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Rostocker Beiträge zur Regional- und Strukturforschung, Heft 18,
No. 18,
2006
Abstract
Urban and regional economics put great emphasis on urban spaces and, in general, on the importance of agglomeration forces, which is of great importance for the development perspectives of structurally weak regions. This in mind, the contribution investigates the extent and the structures of economic agglomeration characteristics, using the example of the cities in the Federal State of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In this context, the question is raised whether the potential given there might be better used to achieve economic progress. The contribution starts with a brief theoretical overview on the importance of agglomeration forces for urban and regional development. The empirical section comprises, first, an analysis how the cities under consideration are endowed with factors being regarded as important for economic growth; second, two essential elements of agglomeration of economic activities are investigated more in-depth: spatially concentrated industries and business networks. The investigation is based on a method which was already in use within an East-Germany wide study on Economic Development Spots (project on behalf of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning - BBR, finished in 2004). Finally, the contribution draws implications for the economic policy at the Laender level as well as at the municipal level.
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