24.06.2016 • 26/2016
UK’s “No” to EU will be costly for both sides
On Thursday 23rd, the British people have decided to leave the European Union (EU) Their vote not to remain in the European community was surprisingly clear. UK’s exit will have both political and economic consequences which are far-reaching for the country itself as well as the rest of Europe. “The reactions of the remaining member states are the crucial key now, especially France’s and Germany’s” says Reint E. Gropp, President of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association.
Reint E. Gropp
Read press release
In Search of Concepts: The Effects of Speculative Demand on Stock Returns
Owain ap Gwilym, Iftekhar Hasan, Qingwei Wang, Ru Xie
European Financial Management,
No. 3,
2016
Abstract
Using a novel proxy of investors' speculative demand constructed from online search interest in investment concepts, we examine how speculative demand affects the returns of Chinese stocks. We find that speculative demand increases following high market returns and predicts subsequent return reversals. Moreover, the speculative demand explains more variation in subsequent returns of A shares (more populated by retail investors) than B shares (less populated by retail investors). Our findings support the recently developed attention theory.
Read article
The Impact of Risk Attitudes on Financial Investments
Walter Hyll, Maike Irrek
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2015
Abstract
Several scholars analyze the relationship between individuals’ willingness to take risks and financial investment decisions. We add to this literature in using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel which allow ruling out that investments in risky assets itself impact on risk attitudes. We show that individuals with a higher willingness to take risks are more likely to hold bonds, stocks, and company assets. When grouping individuals into risk groups, our results reveal that high risk takers are also less likely to own a life insurance. If endogenous adaption of risk attitudes from holding assets in previous years is not taken into account, the impact of risk attitudes on holding risky assets is upward biased.
Read article
Executive Compensation Structure and Credit Spreads
Stefano Colonnello, Giuliano Curatola, Ngoc Giang Hoang
Abstract
We develop a model of managerial compensation structure and asset risk choice. The model provides predictions about how inside debt features affect the relation between credit spreads and compensation components. First, inside debt reduces credit spreads only if it is unsecured. Second, inside debt exerts important indirect effects on the role of equity incentives: When inside debt is large and unsecured, equity incentives increase credit spreads; When inside debt is small or secured, this effect is weakened or reversed. We test our model on a sample of U.S. public firms with traded CDS contracts, finding evidence supportive of our predictions. To alleviate endogeneity concerns, we also show that our results are robust to using an instrumental variable approach.
Read article
On the Stability of Preferences: Repercussions of Entrepreneurship on Risk Attitudes
Matthias Brachert, Walter Hyll
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2014
Abstract
The majority of empirical studies make use of the assumption of stable preferences in searching for a relationship between risk attitude and the decision to become and stay an entrepreneur. Yet empirical evidence on this relationship is limited. In this paper, we show that entry into entrepreneurship itself plays a decisive role in shaping risk preferences. We find that becoming self-employed is indeed associated with a relative increase in risk attitudes, an increase that is quantitatively large and significant even after controlling for individual characteristics, different employment status, and duration of entrepreneurship. The findings suggest that studies assuming that risk attitudes are stable over time suffer from reverse causality; risk attitudes do not remain stable over time, and individual preferences change endogenously.
Read article
R&D Offshoring and the Productivity Growth of European Regions
Davide Castellani, F. Pieri
CIRCLE Working Papers, No. 20,
No. 20,
2013
Abstract
The recent increase in R&D offshoring have raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of 'hollowing out'. At the same time, economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which R&D offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of European regions. We find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth, but this positive effect fades down with the number of investment projects carried out abroad. A large and positive correlation emerge between the extent of R&D offshoring and the home region productivity growth, supporting the idea that carrying out R&D abroad strengthen European competitiveness.
Read article
The Tradeoff Between Redistribution and Effort: Evidence from the Field and from the Lab
Claudia M. Buch, C. Engel
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Working Paper, 2012-10,
No. 10,
2012
Abstract
We use survey and experimental data to explore how effort choices and preferences for redistribution are linked. Under standard preferences, redistribution would reduce effort. This is different with social preferences. Using data from the World Value Survey, we find that respondents with stronger preferences for redistribution tend to have weaker incentives to engage in effort, but that the reverse does not hold true. Using a lab experiment, we show that redistribution choices even increase in imposed effort. Those with higher ability are willing to help the needy if earning income becomes more difficult for everybody.
Read article
A Model for the Valuation of Carbon Price Risk
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Antes, R.; Hansjürgen, B.; Letmathe, P.; Pickl, S. (Hrsg.), Emissions Trading - Institutional Design, Decision Making and Corporate Strategies (Second Edition),
2011
Abstract
Modeling the price risk of CO2 emission allowances is an important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. In this paper, a pricing model is developed which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs in the current trade period as well as by the long-term marginal abatement costs. The price risk is modeled on the basis of a mean reversion process. Due to uncertainties about the future state of the environment, we suppose that within one trade period erratic changes in the expected marginal abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. In addition to the parameter estimation, it is also an objective of this work to modify the mean reversion process so that such abrupt changes in the expected reversion level can be displayed. Because of the possibility of transferring spare allowances to a subsequent period we take into account the fact that the expected long run marginal abatement costs act as a lower limit for the price in the trading period.
Read article
Africa and the Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Economic Reform Processes
R. Adelou Alabi, J. Alemazung, Achim Gutowski, Robert Kappel, Tobias Knedlik, O. Osnachi Uzor, Karl Wohlmuth, Hans H. Bass
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Vol. 15,
2011
Abstract
In volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives investigates the impact of the GFC on economic reform processes in Africa. The analysis is structured in such a way so as to reflect the opportunities and dangers of policy reversals in the face of the GFC. The impact of the crisis on different types and forms of governance in the region is considered. The first question is therefore which macro-economic policy instruments have to be applied in order to overcome the crisis and to continue with sustainable development. The second question is how the GFC has affected Africa's external economic relations and if the path of opening up to the world markets is continued. The third question raised is how the crisis has affected social cohesion, impacted on poverty alleviation strategies and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). All these questions are discussed in the various contributions which comprise general studies and country case studies. The authors also looked into the role of international financial institutions during and after the crisis. The volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is structured into three Units. Unit 1 addresses general issues regarding the impact of the GFC on reform processes in Africa. Unit 2 presents case studies from countries and sub-regions. Unit 3 presents reviews and book notes of current literature focusing on issues of African development perspectives.
Read article