01.04.2026 • 9/2026
Energy price shock dampens recovery – inflation rises
Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German economy to be in a recovery phase following a downturn lasting several years, they nevertheless expect only a moderate increase in gross domestic product of 0.6% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027. “The energy price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard, but at the same time expansionary fiscal policy is bolstering the domestic economy and preventing a stronger slide,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at the ifo Institute. The institutes estimate that the inflation rate will rise to an average of 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Cross-border Transmission of Climate Policies Through Global Production Networks
Marius Fourné
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 19,
2025
Abstract
Climate policies do not operate in isolation but propagate through global production networks, affecting industries beyond national borders. This paper combines international input-output data with a granular instrumental variable approach to capture how foreign regulations transmit through upstream and downstream linkages. Distinguishing between market-based policies, non-market regulations, and technology support, the analysis shows that foreign climate policies can enhance domestic productivity, with effects shaped by industry characteristics and operating through technological adjustment along supply chains. The results underscore the importance of accounting for international spillovers when evaluating the economic impact of environmental regulation.
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12.06.2025 • 19/2025
Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy
The German economy has picked up somewhat in the first half of 2025. This was helped by the temporary increase in demand from the US in anticipation of higher tariffs. If the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, production in Germany according to the summer forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is likely to increase a bit (by 0.4%) in 2025, after two years of decline. In March, the IWH economists were forecasting growth of 0.1% for the current year. Growth of 1.1% is forecast for the year 2026. Similar expansion rates are to be expected for East Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Media Response
Media Response April 2026 IWH: Insolvenzen auf Höchststand in: Badische Neueste Nachrichten Karlsruhe, 10.04.2026 IWH: Betz-Spedition meldet Insolvenz an in: Schwäbische Zeitung…
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Economic Outlook
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2026 Energy Price Shock Dampens Recovery – Inflation Rises April 1, 2026 Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German…
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Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
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Alumni
Alumni IWH provides guidance and support in job placement after graduation, including letters of recommendation and career advice. Graduates have found placements in academia…
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Forthcoming
Forthcoming CompNet Events FINPRO5 – Finance and Productivity Conference April 24–25, 2026 University of Tokyo, Japan Center for Business and Productivity Dynamics (IWH-CBPD),…
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15th Annual IWH-CompNet Conference
15th Annual IWH-CompNet Conference 22-23 October 2026 - Brussels, Belgium Center for Business and Productivity Dynamics – CompNet, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, and…
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9th vintage
9th Vintage CompNet Dataset The CompNet dataset includes a set of micro-aggregated indicators to enhance policy and academic analysis on competitiveness and productivity. All the…
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