14.01.2026 • 2/2026
Compliance with the EU fiscal rules requires extensive consolidation – Medium-term projection of macroeconomic developments and public finances in Germany
Germany faces considerable structural burdens from both macroeconomic and fiscal perspectives, as potential growth is likely to be significantly lower than in past decades. A projection by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) on macroeconomic developments up to the year 2040 shows that, under unchanged fiscal policies, public debt can be expected to continue rising. The federal government's fiscal-structural plan assumes compliance with EU requirements, but this is only achievable under the assumption of high global spending cuts that have not yet been specified in detail.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Can there be a diversity premium in the housing market?
Rachel Cho, Hisham Farag, Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan, Huyen Nguyen, Max Schröder
Economics Observatory,
June
2025
Abstract
Research using historical data from Northern Ireland indicates that house prices are higher in more diverse neighbourhoods. Housing policy should focus on regenerating neighbourhoods, improving public services and fostering social integration.
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14.05.2025 • 16/2025
Private ownership boosts hospital performance
New research by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and ESMT Berlin shows that private equity (PE) acquisitions lead to substantial operational efficiency gains in hospitals, challenging common public concerns. The study reveals that hospitals acquired by PE firms significantly reduce costs and administrative staff without increasing closure rates or harming patient care.
Merih Sevilir
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10.04.2025 • 13/2025
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent
The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1% for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3%. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. The additional scope for public debt should gradually have an expansionary effect, but threatens to crowd out private consumption and private investment.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics
Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics (IWH-CBPD) The Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics (CBPD) was founded in January 2025 and works with policy and research…
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IWH-DPE in a Nutshell
IWH-DPE in a Nutshell The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is the unit that organises the education of doctoral students at the IWH in close cooperation with partner…
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IWH Bankruptcy Research
IWH Bankruptcy Research The Bankruptcy Research Unit of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) presents the Institute’s research on the topics of corporate bankruptcy,…
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Halle Institute for Economic Research
Labour Markets: Sharpened Focus With the new name, the Department places its research focus on labour economics at the centre. Core topics remain structural change, wages,…
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Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
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Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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