,
2011
At the end of 2011, prospects for the world are clouded. The main cause for
concern is that the euro area crisis of confidence has not reached its peak yet. It
is doubtful whether Italian and Spanish debt service would be sustainable if
yields stay at these levels for long. Even more critical are the financing
conditions for European banks whose standing crucially depends on the
valuation of the sovereign bonds they own. This uncertainty will continue
inducing firms and households to postpone decisions on spending and
investment, and fiscal policy will dampen demand further. Besides, financial
conditions are also bound to deteriorate in most member countries. Moreover,
weak demand from advanced economies is dampening the expansion in exportoriented
emerging markets countries (in East-Asia, but also in Latin America).
As a consequence, both our forecasts for the euro area exports and industrial
production have been revised downwards.