Trotz der Handelskonflikte zeigt sich die Weltwirtschaft bislang robust und dürfte weiter in mäßigem Tempo expandieren. Die Weltproduktion steigt im Jahr 2025 um 2,6% und im Jahr darauf um 2,4%. Ob sich die deutsche Wirtschaft auf Erholungskurs befindet, ist weiterhin nicht erkennbar, zumal sie in der zweiten Jahreshälfte den Dämpfer höherer US-Zölle zu verkraften hat. Erst für 2026 stehen die Chancen gut, dass finanzpolitische Impulse zusammen mit niedrigen Leitzinsen eine konjunkturelle Belebung bewirken. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte dann um 0,8% zunehmen, nach 0,2% im Jahr 2025.

We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.

This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneity in sectoral price stickiness and the response of the economy to aggregate real shocks. We show that sectoral heterogeneity reduces inflation persistence for a constant average duration of price spells, and that inflation persistence can fall despite duration increases associated with increases in heterogeneity. We also find that sectoral heterogeneity reduces the persistence and volatility of interest rate and output gap for a constant price spells duration, while the qualitative impact on inflation volatility tends to be positive. A relevant policy implication is that neglecting price stickiness heterogeneity can impair the economic dynamics assessment.

Die Ankündigungen und Entscheidungen der neuen US-Regierung um den Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt und die Zollpolitik haben weltweit zu hoher Unsicherheit geführt. Im Euroraum bleibt die Konjunktur schwach. Auch die deutsche Konjunktur ist weiter im Abschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2025 um 0,1% und im Jahr darauf um 1,3% zunehmen.

Banks have been operating in a low interest rate environment paired with booming housing markets. For the largest banks in the euro area and the period 2015-2022, we assess whether banks reallocate their foreign loan portfolio backed by real estate as a response to differences in local lending spreads across the home and destination country and conditional on reduced information frictions due to borrowing-country exposures. The main result is that the relative share of foreign real estate backed lending increases in case of return opportunities, and this sensitivity depends on local exposures towards the borrowing country. The result is driven by subsamples for which neither the home nor the borrowing country have implemented macroprudential regulation targeting real estate lending, or for which there is a misalignment in macroprudential policies. Nevertheless, we find limited evidence that the riskiness of real estate backed loans goes up during our sample period, and we discuss potential reasons for this result including the possibility of hidden losses.

We show that the response of banks’ net interest margin (NIM) to monetary policy shocks is state dependent. Following a period of low (high) Federal Funds rates, a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to an increase (decrease) in NIM. Aggregate economic activity exhibits a similar state-dependent pattern. To explain these dynamics, we develop a banking model in which social interactions influence households’ attentiveness to deposit interest rates. We embed that framework within a nonlinear heterogeneous-agent NK model. The estimated model accounts well quantitatively for our key empirical findings.