IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty-driven Business Cycles: Assessing the Markup Channel

A growing recent literature relies on a precautionary pricing motive embedded in representative agent DSGE models with sticky prices and wages to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks.

IWH Research Seminar

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-state Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net softthresholding rule.

IWH Research Seminar

Foreign Portfolios and Domestic Business Cycles with Heterogeneous Households

IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle

We show that occasional deviations from efficient wage-setting generate strong and statedependent amplication of exogenous uncertainty shocks and contribute to explain the observed countercyclicality of empirical measures of aggregate uncertainty.

IWH Research Seminar

Green Business Cycles

This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical.